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On February 24, the war between Russia and Ukraine began, and Russia made rapid progress in the early stages, approaching the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.
In particular, the news on the Internet, such as the destruction of the Ukrainian National Guard Command, makes people feel that the war will end in a short time, or even within 24 hours.
But today, there is still no ukrainian declaration of surrender, and the Internet has popped up on the Internet saying that more than 3,500 Russian troops have been killed and nearly 200 people have been captured, as if Russia is about to fall into the ocean of people's war.
So, how long is the war between Russia and Ukraine likely to last? Let's make a bold prediction!
(i)
The quick-win theory is now bankrupt, more than 48 hours have passed, and the situation in which the Ukrainian military facilities imagined by some people before were cleared by Russia have not appeared.
If nothing else, even if the entire eastern part of Ukraine falls, even if it faces kiev, the capital of Ukraine, Russia will have no good way.
This is a large city with an area of more than 800 square kilometers and a population of nearly 3 million, the size of the city is the third largest in the Soviet Union and the first in Ukraine.
In World War II, the last attack on the large city of Berlin, the capital of Germany, lasted for nearly 20 days from April 16 to May 2.
At that time, the German army was already at the end of the crossbow, experienced veterans were dead, and there would not be so much international public opinion, just bomb the city indiscriminately, and the result was that the Soviet army still paid the price of 80,000 dead to take Berlin.
(ii)
Now Russia is facing Kiev, although the air supremacy is in Russia's hands, but if you want to not hurt civilians and accurately attack the army, it is simply stepping on the embroidery of eggs - it is even more difficult.
In fact, if a country's army did not collapse, such as the United States fighting Iraq twice, it was only when the government collapsed and the army began to dispatch ground troops like headless flies.
But now Ukraine, has not yet reached this point, Russia can not directly use a missile to kill Ukrainian President Zelensky, the next is not easy to fight.
However, even if it is not easy to fight, in fact, the time of Ukraine's surrender can be predicted, and it is expected to be about two weeks.
Why did I give this time? In fact, we can refer to the performance of the Korean War volunteers in that year.
After the U.S. army replaced MacArthur with Ridgway, he found that the volunteers attacked for a maximum of 1 week at a time, which is the so-called weekly offensive.
Because the volunteers themselves only had enough dry food and ammunition for a week, they ran out of time, and even if the situation was good, they had to be withdrawn.
(iii)
This actually applies to the battlefield in Ukraine, where Russia is now carrying out targeted killings and encirclements at the same time, and kiev will definitely be besieged without fighting in the later stage.
As long as the supplies entering Kiev, especially military supplies, are strictly controlled, and the ammunition depot is destroyed, even if there are 1 million Ukrainian troops defending the city, it will be useless.
No guns, no cannons, no enemies to build for you, how do you fight? No matter how strong the warriors' will to fight, they could not rush to the front line empty-handed.
And the Russian front line can not even see people, are tanks, heavy weapons and drones, this side dares to show their heads, before they can see the opposite side of the people will die, what else can this fight?
However, in view of the fact that modern warfare cannot massacre civilians and indiscriminately attack, Ukraine will not instigate in the short term, but it can only last for ten days and half a month, and there is no point in consuming it again.
In particular, the West, led by the United States, does not send troops to intervene, surrender is only a matter of time, and the casualties and military expenditure of Central Russia will also be greatly reduced.
As for whether it is right or not, then wait and see, see when it turns into a sai half immortal or a god stick, everyone remember to come back to see ah!
Do you have anything to say about how long the war between Russia and Ukraine will last? Welcome to pay attention to the message.