【Article/Observer Network Columnist Zhang Zhonglin】
Since Putin announced "special military operations" in Ukraine at noon Beijing time on February 24, the Russo-Ukrainian war began to everyone's surprise. As of February 27, the Russo-Ukrainian War has been going on for 4 days, the Russian army from the rapid interspersing of the first stage began to the encirclement and attack of the big city, the Russian army small troops have entered Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, and an exchange of fire has occurred.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are currently about 6,000 mainland citizens in Ukraine, mainly in Kiev, Kharkiv and Odessa, mainly in the regions of International Students and Business. As a result of the sudden outbreak of war, most of the mainland's citizens in Ukraine remained in Ukraine, and the situation was gradually dangerous.
Photos of Chinese students taking refuge in Kiev shelters, image source: social media
In view of the severe war situation in Ukraine, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine has stuck to its posts in recent days, constantly issued the latest tips to Chinese citizens in Ukraine, and began the statistical work of evacuation. Although the embassy tried its best to carry out the assistance and evacuation of Chinese citizens, the war had already spread to the vicinity of kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and the ukrainian airspace had been closed at the beginning of the war, making the evacuation of overseas Chinese difficult.
The Chinese Embassy in Ukraine issued a risk warning for Chinese citizens on February 26
"The Wolf Is Coming" and "Hindsight"
The United States has been predicting the Russian army to attack Ukraine since mid-February, but from February 16, when the United States first "predicted" the Russian army to attack, until February 24, when the war officially broke out, the United States repeatedly "predicted" the date of the Russian attack, and February 24 was not on the LIST of U.S. prophecies. Therefore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the mouth of the United States is gradually considered to be "wolf coming", and when people find out that "wolf" is really coming, it is too late.
Russia did a very good job of secrecy before launching the military operation, so that all countries were caught off guard and failed to carry out the evacuation in time. The United States, which has repeatedly "predicted" that war will break out, began to evacuate the personnel of the US Embassy in Ukraine as early as February 12 and closed the museum on the 14th, as for the US civilians, the US State Department publicly stated that "the US government cannot go to assist in the evacuation."
Thus, some accusations that China did not evacuate its diaspora from Ukraine in time seem untenable: China does not know the date of the outbreak of war, and even from God's point of view, it is impossible to know whether war will break out before the Russian army launches operations on February 24, let alone withdraw its overseas Chinese in advance.
Moreover, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine and the Chinese Consulate General in Odessa have been sticking to their posts in the war, providing assistance to the Chinese in Ukraine and actively organizing the evacuation of overseas Chinese, which is in stark contrast to the US Embassy in Ukraine, which ran out of Kiev early.
Analysis of evacuation programmes
The evacuation of overseas Chinese in the current Russo-Ukrainian War is very different from the evacuation operations carried out by China in the past.
For example, the most well-known 2011 Libyan war evacuation operation, which broke out in January 2011 and lasted until March, with a total of about 36,000 people evacuated through land, sea and air. However, unlike the low-intensity civil war of the Libyan war, the intensity and intensity of the Russo-Ukrainian war were significantly higher than it.
Moreover, ukraine is mostly bordered by Russia or Belarus on land, and only the western part is bordered by third countries that did not participate in the war. At the same time, due to the closure of airspace due to the war, it is currently impossible for civilian aircraft to take off from The territory of Ukraine, so the fastest evacuation of overseas Chinese by air is obviously impossible. There are also Russian military operations in the sea areas, and shipping can only be excluded, so the only alternative method of evacuation is to transport the overseas Chinese by land to a third country and then return by plane from a third country.
At present, the Russo-Ukrainian war is still in a state of rapid development, and Chinese citizens in Ukraine are mainly concentrated in the capital Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa. If we want to organize the evacuation of overseas Chinese, it must also be based on these three places. Kiev and Odessa have Chinese embassies and consulates general in Ukraine, while Kharkiv has no Chinese institutions and personnel abroad, and the number of students studying abroad is relatively large.
The green circles in the picture are: Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa
The most convenient evacuation in the three cities is estimated to be the Odessa region. The Chinese Consulate General may organize the evacuation of Chinese citizens on the spot. The Odessa region, which currently has no fierce fighting, is a relatively calm area, and Odessa is relatively close to the border, and the distance is about 350 kilometers if a convoy is organized to travel from the road to Romania. If communication with the Romanian and Ukrainian sides is smooth, it is possible to reach the safe areas of Romania from Odessa in one day, and organize evacuation charter flights to transport them back to the country from Romania, and if Moldova can be selected as the destination for evacuation of overseas Chinese on the southern route, the journey can be cut in half.
According to the battle situation, the road from Odessa to Romania was relatively calm without fighting
Kiev's problems are more complex than Odessa's. Kiev is still under a 39-hour curfew, and people can't go out on the streets, let alone leave.
Russian troops were located northwest of Kiev, and the border with its nearest neighbor, Belarus, was where the Russians had departed. Although the west of Kiev has not yet been blocked by the Russian army, on the one hand, the situation is changing rapidly, the road may be blocked or fighting may occur at any time, and on the other hand, it is a long way (about 625 km) to go west along the evacuation route of the US Embassy in Ukraine to Lviv and then to Poland. This is naturally not a problem in peacetime, but it can be full of variables in times of war.
Fortunately, at present, the Russian military is very suspicious of civilian casualties, and may estimate the international impact or still preparing, there is no sign of attacking Kiev at present, but this does not mean that Chinese citizens in Kiev can sit back and relax. Due to the previous arrival of Russian troops in Kiev, a large number of weapons were distributed to civilians in Kiev City, and different Armed Forces of the Ukrainian Army opened fire on each other, resulting in a very poor security situation in Kiev City.
If the evacuation of the chinese community is to be organized in Kiev, it is desirable to communicate well with the Russian and Ukrainian sides, and the evacuation convoy will cross the two fronts in the designated route at the specified time and go to Belarus to complete the evacuation. But crossing the line of fire requires agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and taking into account the limited binding force of the Kiev authorities on the local armed forces of the far-right vigilante groups, and as the main war zone between the two sides, the road to Belarus may be fraught with dangers, such as the threat of landmines on the road. The evacuation of Kiev to the north was therefore only an option, and it was more secure to avoid the western front of the war zone.
The road from Kiev to Poland via Lviv is about 625 km
Although there were explosions from Kiev from time to time, the Russian army had not yet shown signs of attacking Kiev
In the current situation, perhaps the most dangerous situation is the Chinese citizens of Kharkiv. On the 27th, the Russian army launched a siege war against Kharkov, and the war that directly burned into the city made the Chinese compatriots face the most direct threat.
Moreover, Kharkov is the place where the heavy armies of eastern Ukraine gather, and they are destined to break out into a fierce war. According to previous footage on social media, Ukrainian troops in Kharkov hid some of their heavy equipment in residential buildings and deployed artillery positions in residential areas. Although the Russian military has paid great attention to controlling civilian casualties in the past four days of combat operations, rarely appearing (or never seen) the russian military causing civilian casualties, it is not difficult to control civilian casualties in field battles, and it is more difficult to control civilian casualties in urban warfare.
In Mariupol, Ukraine, ukrainian countries have set up checkpoints to prevent civilians from fleeing, and even shot at civilians. In addition, a considerable part of the armed forces of the Ukrainian Army in Kharkiv are far-right armed forces (such as the 92nd Brigade and the 93rd Brigade), which are very prone to irrational behavior.
Ukrainian militants in Mariupol set up a card to prevent civilians from leaving and opened fire, image source: video screenshot
Ukrainian armed men deploy artillery positions between residential buildings, photo credit: social media
Therefore, for Chinese citizens in Kharkiv, it is most important to find refuge on the spot at this time to avoid being affected by the war, and it is more likely to encounter accidents if they rush out or try to leave Kharkiv.
Judging from the social media on the evening of the 27th Beijing time and the war reports released by the Russian army, the Russian army has invaded the center of Kharkov and is about to complete the occupation. For the civilian population in Kharkiv, a quick decision is good news – if it is really like Grozny or the Siege of Sarajevo in the Bosnian War, it will be a disaster for the civilians.
For Chinese citizens in Kharkiv, the ideal option is to wait in the shelter for the end of the street fighting, and then the embassy will establish humanitarian channels through diplomatic channels to allow Chinese citizens in Kharkiv to evacuate to Russian territory and then fly back to China.
The motherland never gives up
Although the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out very suddenly, the mainland always put the safety of overseas citizens first and worked hard to evacuate overseas Chinese. Taking the most well-known evacuation operation in Libya in recent years as an example, a total of 91 Chinese airline civil aviation aircraft; 35 foreign charter flights; 12 Il-76 transport aircraft and a number of ships were used in the Libyan evacuation operation; 36,000 Chinese citizens were evacuated from Libya in 12 days.
A more special evacuation of overseas Chinese was in Afghanistan in July 2021, when the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic was under strict control, Chinese citizens in Afghanistan bypassed the original regulations on overseas boarding and epidemic prevention testing, took Xiamen Airlines MF8008 charter flight back to China and carried out closed-loop management of epidemic prevention.
It is precisely in recent years that several successful evacuation operations have made it common sense for Chinese overseas citizens to seek the help of the embassy in emergency situations, and the most representative picture of the evacuation is the scene of "Wolf Warrior 2" holding a red flag through the war zone.
This scene of "Wolf Warrior 2" has undoubtedly become a symbol of China's evacuation of overseas Chinese
Of course, the film belongs to the movie, and the successful evacuation of overseas Chinese in reality is inseparable from the efforts of Chinese diplomats and embassies abroad, and also from the efforts of Chinese airlines that are highly cooperative with the evacuation of overseas Chinese. It is the unity of purpose that allows every Chinese citizen to return to the motherland safely. It is believed that the withdrawal of overseas Chinese in Ukraine can be carried out smoothly, and I also wish compatriots in Ukraine peace.
Chinese airlines undertake the task of evacuating overseas Chinese to pick up overseas Chinese citizens to return to China, picture source: Xinhua Net
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