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The Russian-Ukrainian war triggered the "space cold war", where are the seven astronauts of the International Space Station?

The escalation of Sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States is affecting international cooperation in the aerospace field, involving a number of rocket launch projects in Europe, but the cooperation on the International Space Station is not affected for the time being.

On February 26, local time, the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) announced that it would stop launching all Soyuz rockets from the European spaceport in French Guiana (Kourou).

A statement posted on social media on the same day by the head of the Russian Space Agency, Dmitry Rogozin, said: "In response to the EU sanctions on our business, Roscosmos will suspend cooperation with European partners in organizing space launches at the Kourou Cosmodrome and withdraw our personnel from French Guiana, including joint launchers." ”

U.S. President Joe Biden has previously said that the new sanctions against Russia will hit Russia's aerospace industry, including space programs such as spacecraft manufacturing. Biden said the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies would restrict russia's imports of half of its high-tech products, which would seriously affect "the possibility of modernizing Russia's military industry."

However, a NASA spokesperson clarified that NASA continues to cooperate with Russia on the issue of International Space Station activities and does not believe that the new U.S. sanctions will affect this partnership. He said the new U.S. sanctions in the area of export controls will not affect Cooperation between Russia and the United States in the civil aerospace sector.

The Russian-Ukrainian war triggered the "space cold war", where are the seven astronauts of the International Space Station?

NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei prepares for the test on the space station. Source: NASA

Europe seeks "rocket freedom"

As an aerospace power, Russia has maintained long-term and important cooperation with both the United States and the European Union, which involves both the maintenance of the operation of the International Space Station and the rocket launch program.

Russia's Soyuz rocket has repeatedly helped European space launch companies Arianespace and NASA with launch missions.

According to Roscosmos's second statement, Russia also recalled 87 Russian workers at the European South American spaceport in French Guiana.

Arian Space CEO Stéphane Israel previously said in an interview with French television that the launch of Soyuz in Guyana will be guaranteed to continue until the end of 2023, "after the contract expires, we still hope to continue this partnership."

Arianespace completed a total of 15 launches last year, more than the previous year's 10, nine of which used Soyuz rocket launches: 8 from Russia and 1 from French Guiana. This year, the company plans to carry out 17 launch missions, nine using Soyuz: five from French Guiana and four from Russia.

On February 10, the Soyuz rocket also carried 34 OneWeb Internet satellites from the Space Center in French Guiana.

Arianespace's next Launch of Soyuz was originally scheduled to launch two Galileo navigation satellites to the EU's Galileo System in early April. But the mission will almost certainly be delayed due to Russia's announcement on Saturday to halt launches from Guyana.

The latest response from the European Union said that Russia's decision would not interrupt the EU's service to users of the Galileo satellite or the EU's Copernicus Earth observation satellite.

At the same time, the Eu is seeking autonomy in space launches. Arianespace also uses Europe's Ariane5 heavy rockets and Vega rockets for small launches from French Guiana.

EU Space Commissioner Thierry Breton said: "EU member states are prepared to take decisive action to ensure that these critical infrastructures are not attacked on the one hand, and will continue to develop the Ariane 6 rocket and the Vega C rocket on the other hand, to ensure Europe's strategic autonomy in the field of rocket launches." ”

The Ariane 6 rocket is the successor to the Ariane 5 rocket and is expected to make its first launch later this year. The Vega C rocket is a follow-up to the Vega rocket that will be able to reach more orbits and be able to carry more different payloads at the same cost.

In addition to rocket launch missions, the EU would have worked closely with Russia on its space program. The European rover Mars probe ExoMars, which will be launched later this year, is being developed by Russia's Ravochkin Scientific Production Union, a subsidiary of the Russian Aerospace Corporation. The Mars rover was originally scheduled to launch in 2020 and was later changed to 2022. With EU sanctions on Russia, it's unclear what impact it will have on ExoMars' launch plans.

The Russian-Ukrainian war triggered the "space cold war", where are the seven astronauts of the International Space Station?

The Cygnus Cargo Spacecraft (left) approaches the International Space Station and will resupply the space station. (Source: NASA)

Josef Aschbacher, director general of the European Space Agency (ESA), said in a statement: "European space officials are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine while weighing any action taken. ”

In addition, according to Rogozin's earlier remarks, cooperation on the orbital observatory project "Spectrum-Roentgen-Gamma" Spektr-RG (SRG), jointly launched by Russia and Germany, will also be stranded.

Professor Dietrich Baade, honorary astronomer at the European Southern Observatory (ESO), told First Financial Reporter: "Scientists may still continue to cooperate, but the position of funding agencies may be affected." ”

Bard cites the scientific cooperation of the sRG mission's eROSITA X-ray telescope as an example, saying that the project has split specific data ownership into German data and Russian data from the beginning, and both countries are shrinking data, while data collection and control of spacecraft are in Russia.

Russia's withdrawal will push up the cost of the space station

After the sanctions were imposed, what attracted more attention was the space cooperation program between Russia and the United States, which involved both the International Space Station mission and the joint exploration mission for extraterrestrial life.

Rogozin has also previously warned that the International Space Station (ISS) could collapse due to U.S.-China sanctions against Russia. He wrote on social media: "If you prevent working with us, who will save the 500-ton ISS from getting out of control, derailed and falling to Earth?" he wrote on social media? ”

But experts say that while the basic orbital adjustment of the International Space Station relies on the engines of Russia's Progress cargo spacecraft, the possibility of de-orbiting is small.

A total of 316 corrections were made to the orbital altitude throughout the ISS flight, 167 of which were powered by the engines of the Progress cargo spacecraft. The next revision of the ISS orbit is expected to take place on March 11, 2022.

Rogozin said that in view of the ongoing sanctions, he no longer believes that Russian-U.S. alliance is necessary. He wrote in a statement: "It is inappropriate for the United States to continue to participate in russia's planned Venus exploration mission 'Venera-D'. In 2017, scientists from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began engaging with Russia in the hope of participating in the Venera-D mission. The mission plans to launch at least 3 probes to Venus by 2030.

Rogozin said Russia would conduct a Venus exploration mission alone or with China. Rogozin said he had issued instructions on the 25th to hold talks with China on mutual technical assistance for all space research missions.

Zhang Shuangnan, an adviser to the China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSA), told First Financial Reporter: "It is clear that Russia will definitely reduce its participation in the International Space Station project in the future; and with the expansion of China's space program, Russia has begun to seek cooperation with China." ”

Russian space agencies have been repeatedly sanctioned. In June last year, Rogozin said that if the United States did not lift sanctions on Russia's Progress Rocket Space Center and Russia's Central Machinery Manufacturing Institute, Russia would withdraw from the International Space Station cooperation project in 2025 and would build its own space station.

Built, operated and used by 16 countries, the ISS project is the largest, longest-consuming and most nationally involved international cooperation in space ever. Since the official establishment of the station in 1998, the construction mission was completed in 2010 and transferred to the full-use phase, mainly operated by nasa, the Russian Federal Space Agency, the European Space Agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, and the Canadian Space Agency.

In the cooperation project of the International Space Station, the United States and Russia have maintained close technical cooperation for a long time. According to the original plan, the next mission of the SOyuz MS-2 manned spacecraft will be carried at 23:55 Beijing time on March 18, carrying Russian astronauts Anton Shkaplerov and Pyotr Dubrov, as well as NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei, back to Earth.

It is uncertain whether this mission will be affected. However, the Russian side has adjusted the orbit of the International Space Station for the mission on February 26.

NASA said it will continue to work with all international partners, including Russia's Space Agency, to ensure the continued safe operation of the International Space Station. There are currently seven astronauts on board the Isaac, including four Americans, one German and two Russians.

Jeff Manber, president of NASA supplier Voyager Space, said: "If Russia does not participate in the ISS program, the cost of operating the ISS will be very high, potentially up to tens of billions of dollars." ”

Bard predicts that on the cooperation project on the International Space Station, Russia may continue to maintain an equal primary partnership with the United States, Europe and Japan in the future. But he also believes that manned launch missions in space should be replaced by robots.

Bud believes that the ISS project can involve more companies. "If commercial enterprises see room for profit, they should take over the space station." He told the first financial reporter, "The cost-effective ratio of the manned space station will continue to be high, making it easier and cheaper for robots to survive in space than humans." ”

NASA has begun deepening its plans to work with private companies to build the future International Space Station. NASA expects to save more than $1 billion a year by seeking to partner with private companies to build a private space station in Earth orbit.

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