In the era of "nuclear weapons", large-scale wars are no longer as frequent as before World War II, because once nuclear war is triggered, it will be a devastating blow to the world, and no country is willing, or has the courage to call, the world's "sinners". However, even though all countries in the world are committed to peace and development, local wars have never ceased in pursuit of their own interests.
Recently, the world's focus has been on the great war between Russia and Ukraine. This "Russian-Ukrainian war" was not a temporary intention, but an explosive counterattack that had been resentful for a long time, and also broke the seemingly stable international situation in the near future. To investigate the root causes of conflict, we need to explore from the aspects of history, nation, geopolitics and geoeconomics.
One: historical roots
Historical problems within the Soviet Democratic Republic continued to accumulate, and finally in the 1990s they broke out and the Soviet Union declared its dissolution. Ukraine, on the other hand, issued a declaration of national independence in 1991, declaring independence from the Soviet Union, known as the Belovezh Agreement.
Ukraine's initiative to break its alliance with Russia for more than 300 years is a source of conflict between the two countries. However, due to the long-term cooperative relationship, the disintegration of the contradiction has not ended the friendly exchanges between the two countries.
Until NATO's "eastward expansion" in 1997, some areas in Ukraine supported NATO accession, which put Russian-Ukrainian relations, which had just eased, into an impasse. However, Ukraine also has many regions that support Russia, Ukraine has not officially announced its accession to NATO at this time, and although Russia-Ukraine relations are tense, they have not deteriorated.
What really raised the stalemate to the conflict was the Crimean incident. The eastern part of Ukraine supports Russia, and the Crimea region is originally Russian territory, but it was given to Ukraine as a gift by Khrushchev, but its people's sense of identity with Russia is very deep. As a result, in the 2014 Crimean referendum, Russia welcomed the Crimean region back to the country.
At the same time, the issue of ownership of the Black Sea Fleet led to a war of property division between Russia and Ukraine, and while the problem was not yet resolved, it ushered in the destruction of nuclear weapons. During the war of armaments between the former Soviet Union and the United States, most of the weapons were placed in Ukraine and targeted on U.S. territory. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of Ukraine made the ownership of these heavy weapons a trigger for conflict.
Nuclear weapons are definitely a thorny issue, and for Ukraine, although having nuclear weapons can strengthen the national security network, daily maintenance and research require a lot of manpower and material resources, which is a major responsibility for Ukraine, which has just lost the support of the Soviet Union and becomes independent. As the "eldest son" of the former Soviet Union, Russia consciously should have all the regrets of the former Soviet Union, including heavy weapons such as nuclear weapons, and Moreover, Russia will not allow itself to have nuclear weapons that can threaten national security next to its borders. Speaking of the United States, the United States does not want a bunch of nuclear weapons that can destroy its territory to target itself. In this way, the United States and Russia have joined forces on this matter and are committed to the destruction of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
For Ukraine, even if I can't afford it, I don't want to be robbed, so Ukraine's resentment towards Russia deepens.
Why not hate America? Because in order to eliminate the hidden dangers of national defense, the United States actively invested funds, was responsible for all the costs of dismantling nuclear weapons, and declared that it respected Ukraine's sovereignty and national integrity, and provided financial and technical support, which simply solved Ukraine's urgent need at that time. It's like I expected my brother to pull me along, but in the end it was an outsider who helped me.
The recent Russo-Ukrainian war, in which Ukraine once again sought to join NATO, angered Russia, coupled with various historical problems and contradictions, the war broke out immediately.
Two: the dispute over the root causes
Ukraine and Russia belong to the same root, because the two countries plus Belarus were first established in Ukraine, the famous Principality of Kiflos. The cultural origins of the three countries were all during the Kiephoros period, and today Kiev is the capital of Ukraine, so Ukraine considers itself the most authentic Ethnic Russian.
However, after the independence of Ukraine, it began to promote "Ukrainian nationalization" and "de-Russification", which undoubtedly aggravated the ethnic contradictions within the country. As of 2019, ethnic Ukrainians make up nearly 80 percent of the total population, while less than 20 percent of ethnic Russians are concentrated in the southeast.
The ethnic contradictions in Ukraine, which have been pulled back and forth between Western European countries and Russia, have deteriorated to the same extent, but the dissent between the various ethnic groups has contributed to ethnic and cultural conflicts and caused the country to lose cohesion and unity.
Three: geopolitics
NATO was established as a military-political organization to deal with the armed and military threat of the Soviet Union (now Russia), so NATO actively co-opted the countries of Russia's geopolitical region, of which Ukraine is a very important hurdle.
Belarus, like Ukraine, is a border state bordering Russia, but Belarus, as a traditional ally of Russia, has always maintained close cooperation and interaction, and Belarus and NATO are in a state of hostility, so a wavering Ukraine is nato's best choice.
If Ukraine joins NATO, then Russia's border security will be threatened, and in the game between the United States and Russia, the United States will have a geopolitical advantage, just like the "Cuban Missile Crisis" during the Cold War, where American shells are directly on Russia's doorstep.
At the same time, Russia wants to control regions such as the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and Ukraine is an important hub, so if Ukraine joins NATO, it will be equivalent to cutting off Russia's influence in these regions.
Fourth: geoeconomics
Ukraine is rich in natural resources, accounting for 25% of the world's total black soil, developed agriculture, and enjoys the reputation of "the world's granary". However, Ukraine is in a weak position compared to industrially developed Russia, so the intersection of the two countries cannot form an equal confrontation.
However, if Russia wants to expand its economic development to Europe, Ukraine is an important transportation hub, for example, Russia's natural gas and oil resources to Eastern and Central European countries must pass through Ukraine, otherwise Russia's economic exports will be suppressed by Ukraine and even NATO.
Russia's vast market and rich natural resources have allowed Russia to dominate the Russian-Ukrainian economic exchanges, which makes Ukraine very insecure, and Ukraine's military strength is weak, and it is under Russia's armed deterrence.
Former Ukrainian President Kravchuk once said that Russia is the lion who is on The side of Ukraine, ready to swallow Ukraine. Long-term deterrence and inequality have made Ukraine constantly worried that Russia will annex itself, and it is precisely because of all kinds of suspicion and vigilance that Russia-Ukraine relations have been unable to be reasonably resolved on the basis of trust.
In the long-term game between Russia and Ukraine, due to historical problems and the entanglement of practical interests, they have experienced twists and turns of alliance, confrontation, détente and confrontation, and the situation has sometimes eased and sometimes tense.
In the final analysis, all actions are considered in the national interest, but whether it is an economic tug-of-war or a military war, it is the interests of the people that are ultimately harmed. The theme of world development is peace, and major powers should seek more rational solutions and modes of coexistence, and should not take the pursuit of their own interests as a slogan for waging war.