Li Lingfei: A few slices about Ukraine
Author: Li Lingfei, Senior Researcher of Pangu Think Tank and Deputy Director of Northeast Asia Research Center
Source: Pangu Think Tank
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
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Geopolitically, there is a class of small countries called the rimstate, which have common borders with a large country, geopolitically become the gateway to and from the big country, and strategically have a major impact on the security of the big country, so that the big country is included in the defense circle and the object of power struggle. The security dilemma of border countries lies in the need to safeguard their sovereign independence, autonomy and autonomy under the pressure of powerful neighbors, while at the same time convincing the great powers that their independence and autonomy will not threaten the security and interests of the other side.
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"I think this is the beginning of a new Cold War ... I think it was a sad mistake. ”
—George Kennan
The statement made by the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union at the Malta Summit in 1989 proclaimed the end of the Cold War. Since then, NATO has extended a "hand offriendship" to the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries: de-escalating hostilities and advocating reconciliation and cooperation.
However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the hand of friendship became the "hand of greed", and under the leadership of the United States, NATO rapidly expanded eastward, forging partnerships with Eastern European countries and former Soviet republics and even including them as members. Eventually, NATO pushed its sphere of influence under Russia's noses.
At the same time, the United States vigorously exaggerated the Russian threat, so that Europe, especially the Eastern European countries that have just come through the upheaval, believe that Russia will replace the Soviet Union and become an evil enemy attacking Europe.
"It doesn't make sense... This expansion will turn over in their graves", referring to NATO's eastward expansion, George Kennan, the originator of the "containment strategy", is heartbroken. In a 1998 interview with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, he said that NATO's eastward expansion showed ignorance of Russian history and the history of the Soviet Union, and that when NATO expanded to the borders of Russian soil, it would trigger a new Cold War.
In July 1990, more than a year before the official declaration of independence, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted the Declaration on the Sovereignty of the State of Ukraine, and in part IX of the Declaration, in the section on national security, Ukraine declared its intention to become a permanent neutral State: the Supreme Soviet of Ukraine solemnly declared that it would seek to become a permanently neutral State, not to join any military bloc and to observe the three noes on the question of nuclear weapons: not to manufacture, possess and introduce nuclear weapons.
In 1991, Ukraine adopted the Independence Act, which reaffirmed the basic principles and policies established in the Declaration of Sovereignty, making it the third former Soviet republic to declare a policy of neutrality after Turkmenistan and Moldova.
However, in the face of temptations thrown by the United States and NATO, Ukraine abandoned its principles and did not keep its promises.
In 1994, Ukraine became the first CIS country to join NATO's "Partnership for Peace Program", cooperating fully with NATO in all aspects of joint military exercises, sharing military bases, personnel and information, and so on.
In May 2002, the meeting of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine formally adopted a decision on Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic process, including nato accession, which was promulgated to the whole country in the form of a presidential decree.
In early 2008, Ukrainian President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko and Speaker Yazenyuk signed a statement hoping that NATO would support Ukraine's accession to the NATO Membership Action Plan at the upcoming summit.
The Ukraine crisis eventually turned into war, and the fuse was ignited thirty years ago.
"In my view, countries that lack the support of the majority of the population and are at risk and have to deal with their own security should not become members of NATO."
—Angela Merkel
Historically, Finland and the Soviet Union, Ireland and the United Kingdom have been typical of the relations between small and large marginal countries. After the Winter War and the continuation of the war, Finland took a neutral line, reaching an agreement with the Soviet Union to dispel its security concerns, while gaining soviet recognition and respect. Ireland, on the other hand, experienced the partition of north and south imposed by the United Kingdom, economic wars, and trade sanctions, and obtained independent status and recognition of its neutral policy by signing the Anglo-Irish Trade Agreement with Britain.
For Russia, Ukraine also meets the definition of a border state geographically. In addition to the distance between the two capitals, militarily, Sevastopol, located in the southern part of the Crimean Peninsula, is the "lifeblood" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, economically, Ukraine is Russia's export channel and lifeline, and in the geopolitical confrontation between Russia, Iran and Turkey and NATO countries in the Black Sea region, Ukraine is the most critical role in determining whether the balance of power can be maintained.
Because of this, not only has the Russian government said it cannot accept it and will do everything it can to avoid Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO, but member states such as France and Germany also have doubts about Ukraine's joining NATO. In March 2008, when Ukraine and Georgia had stepped into NATO's door with one foot, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke at the Bundeswehr Commanders' Conference, arguing that certain countries should not become members of NATO, albeit by implication.
Finland, which constantly reaffirmed its neutral policy, was not publicly recognized by the Soviet leaders until around the end of the Cold War, while its policy of neutrality was criticized by western allies as a turn to the Soviet Union.
In August 2008, with the outbreak of the Russo-Georgian War, Georgia's vision of joining NATO was completely shattered. Later, Polls in Ukraine showed that nearly 60 percent of Ukrainians opposed to joining NATO and supported greater neutrality. After all, who would want their hometown to be at war?
"The challenges facing the international community mean that we must work together at a larger level, and Ukraine is ready to join the process as a non-aligned European country."
—Viktor Yanukovych
Lessons from Finland and Ireland show that their special geography determines the fate of border states that cannot be escaped, and they cannot find a great power or strong alliance to back them up against neighboring powers. Ukrainian leaders who know history and have some political wisdom will also realize that geopolitical relations with Russia and long-term historical, economic and political ties are the basic context for Ukraine to consider in formulating its security strategy, and Ukraine does not want to be a vassal of Russia or a member of NATO to obtain security guarantees, in which case only neutrality is the best option.
In 2008, when the President, the Prime Minister and the Speaker of parliament joined forces to declare their desire for NATO to accept Ukraine, opposition parties and regional legislators in the country came out in unison, and their opposition caused a "parliamentary crisis" in Ukraine, which for a time paralyzed parliament. After the crisis lasted more than a month, Parliament passed a resolution that Ukraine's membership in NATO must be determined by a referendum.
After the Russo-Georgian War, non-membership in NATO, neutrality as a strategic security option, widely supported in parliament, parties and the people, in the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election, competed for the last two main candidates, one is Tymoshenko, who takes the middle moderate route, and the other is Yanukovych, who advocates non-alignment.
In his inaugural address in February 2010, President-elect Yanukovych said the new government would position Ukraine's future as a bridge between East and West. He will change the pro-Western policy of the former leaders, neither seeking NATO membership nor aligning Ukraine with Russia, but participating in the international community as a non-aligned country in Europe, so he has made Ukraine's neutrality one of the goals of governance.
In August 2010, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a resolution that defined the main points of Ukraine's security strategy: non-membership in NATO and declaration of non-alignment.
"Very satisfied that our beautiful revolution has made the people so happy". - Yushchenko
"[Yushchenko] deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his courage in fighting for 'democracy'". Letter of recommendation from the Deputy Speaker of the European Parliament and others to the Nobel Foundation
"That's a condom, kid!"
—— Zi Wenhai (character in the TV series "The Great Dye Factory")
In 2004, the Orange Revolution broke out in Ukraine, and in 2014, pro-EU demonstrations "fight for freedom" broke out. After successive beautiful revolutions of "for democracy and freedom", no one can stand up to guarantee whether the Ukrainians have realized the ideals shouted in the slogans, but what is certain is that after these Europeans gave spiritual encouragement and Americans paid for the material support of the revolution, the Ukrainian political arena, controlled by the absolute pro-European and American factions, abandoned non-alignment, was tough on Russia, and support for JOINING NATO was the common feature of the presidents who came to power after the revolution.
In 2005, Yushchenko, who had just become president, announced that he would cut off Russia's "lifeblood": the expulsion of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol, and then the abolition of Russian as a second official language.
In 2014, President Poroshenko banned any cooperation with Russia in the military field and said that "Ukraine must return to the process of joining NATO, because the non-aligned status declared in 2010 does not guarantee national security and territorial integrity", and then the Ukrainian parliament passed the "abolition of non-alignment" bill submitted by Poroshenko by 303 votes in favor and 8 votes against.
In 2019, Zelenskiy proposed in the presidential campaign that he was committed to meeting the requirements of Ukraine's membership in NATO by 2024, and zelenskiy met with NATO officials in Brussels on his first foreign trip after taking office.
These presidents and their governments have firmly abandoned the option of possible avoiding war and opted for a course of joining NATO in opposition to Russia, a step-by-step policy that will dominate the media today and for some time to come.
In the TV series "The Great Dye Factory", the Zi father and son fell into the situation under Chen Shouting's cloth due to greed, causing them to jump into the trap without hesitation, at least the bait piled up by real money and silver, and in the real case, the big cake drawn on paper by the Americans was nailed to the tip of the knife.
*Disclaimer: This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the position of this official account
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