There is no doubt that Russia's military operations against Ukraine, which began on February 24, local time, have shocked the entire Western world, and at the same time made The Taiwan independence elements tremble with fear: If the United States dares to abandon even Ukraine, then taiwan, which is also not a member of NATO, will also be abandoned?
But interestingly, some people in Japan at this time put forward a completely different view: the Russo-Ukrainian War was a great thing for Taiwan!
According to reports, the person who put forward this magical view was Akio Yabata, director of the Taipei branch of Japan's Sankei Shimbun.
Akio Yabata first pointed out that a very important encouraging factor for Putin to dare to be so bold on the Ukraine issue is the United States: the United States actually knew Putin's intentions for a long time, but gave up the option of military intervention early, and even Biden himself openly showdown to Putin - "under any circumstances the United States can not send troops into Ukraine."
Whether this practice is a deliberate or low-level mistake by the United States is still inconclusive, but Akio Yabata clearly told Taiwan that this practice will indeed have an encouraging effect on the Chinese mainland, and Chinese mainland will also engage in a wave of "cognitive" operations, that is, to spread such remarks as "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow" and "The US military will not come" in an attempt to "undermine unity within Taiwan, create antagonism, and affect local elections at the end of the year."
But Akio Yaba then handed the Taiwan independence elements a "reassuring pill" and confidently declared: But this does not mean that this is a bad thing for Taiwan. On the contrary, Taiwan's value in the eyes of the Western world will rise as a result.
After the lessons of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the United States and the Entire West will reflect on their failures on the Ukrainian issue, rethink the strategy of dealing with Sino-Russian cooperative relations, and then cherish the remaining Taiwan even more, and will work harder to "assist in the defense of Taiwan" to contain the Chinese mainland.
Ukraine is finished, so Taiwan will benefit from it? Akio Yabata is not alone in similarly optimistic thoughts.
For example, Taiwan's Lianhe Pao wrote an article declaring that the military power comparison between the mainland and Taiwan is highly similar to the military power of Russia and Ukraine, so this Ukrainian war is an extremely precious war rehearsal for Taiwan:
This allows the Taiwan authorities to observe at a close distance how a modern war they may face operates, to urge Taiwan's defense departments to examine the defects of their own defense forces in advance, to make Taiwan prepare for confrontation in advance in all aspects, and to add to the addition of the taiwan strait, Taiwan's victory rate is actually not low.
In addition to this, the article also makes a similar view of Akio Yabata:
After the loss of Ukraine, the U.S. authorities are destined to be more careful and cherish Taiwan. After all, Biden's original intention to abandon Ukraine was to prioritize the defense of interests in the Asia-Pacific region, and after Ukraine, the United States finally had enough strength and energy to deal with China.
The Ukraine crisis can also be a kind of rehearsal for the US authorities to deal with the Taiwan issue, and can make the United States clear about China's thinking on the Taiwan issue in the future – there is no doubt that this war is also an inspiration for the mainland, which is destined to follow Russia's example in resolving the Taiwan issue.
But will things really be as optimistic as the Japanese and Taiwanese think? This actually involves the key question mentioned earlier: Is this a strategic foresight or a simple low-level mistake in Ukraine to do this?
Yes, Biden did say at the beginning of his presidency that China is the "biggest strategic threat" to the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region is an area that the United States must concentrate on prioritizing defense, so Taiwan is destined to be a strategic outpost that the United States must cling to - if Taiwan is lost, it means that the United States will completely fail its strategy to contain China, the United States' Asia-Pacific strategic assets will suffer heavy losses, the credibility of the United States among allies will suffer major setbacks, the global strategic posture of the United States will change from attack to defense, and the decline of the United States will really begin.
But the problem is that, also at the beginning of his presidency, Biden also said that repairing the north Atlantic relations that have been damaged by Trump is an important task of this administration, and the United States must become the leader of the democratic world again.
Biden
Knowing the existence of this sentence, we can understand the United States' calculation of the Ukraine crisis: What the Biden administration wants to repair is not the friendship between the United States and Europe, but the dominance of the United States in European affairs - in addition to Russia, the European Union with France and Germany as the core is also constantly hoping to drive the United States out of Europe.
Therefore, in Biden's view, provoking the Ukraine crisis is undoubtedly a good way to suppress Russia and the European Union at the same time:
Forcing Russia to attack Ukraine can not only completely smear Russia and cut off the possibility of Cooperation between Russia and the European Union; it can also make the "fear of Russia" return to the hearts of small European countries and make them realize the importance of US military power; it can also prove that the EU is simply unable to confront Russia alone, so that the whole of Europe can regroup around the United States.
But clear-eyed people can immediately see that if Biden really wants to concentrate on defending the Asia-Pacific region, then he should be completely quiet on the European side, even if he wants to repair the relations between the two sides of the North Atlantic, he should also make a fuss in China and other aspects, rather than at the same time in Europe, leaving hidden dangers for the strategy of "shifting the strategic center of gravity east".
U.S.-Russia confrontation
It turns out that Biden's greed for any interest really costs him dearly:
Biden may think that Putin will not end up after a big fight, or at best, he will recognize the independence of the two states. But what I did not expect was that Putin dared to launch a full-scale armed offensive against Ukraine, with the ultimate goal of establishing a pro-Russian regime.
This pressure came to the United States:
Putin has clearly put forward the posture of killing all opponents, but the United States side cannot show the same hegemonic momentum - the original intention of the United States is to concentrate its forces in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is impossible to re-invest its forces in the European battlefield.
But now that the United States has made it clear that it is powerless to deal with it, the small Eastern European countries that have been launched in the face of Putin's obscenity have to begin to consider such a pragmatic question: Since the United States has made it clear that it is unable to defend Eastern Europe, should we also begin to consider currying favor between the United States and Russia instead of turning to the United States one-sidedly?
There is no doubt that it is Taiwan that is now playing the role of these small Eastern European countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Taiwan question
So we can confirm to the Taiwan independence elements the following fact:
No matter how Biden calculated at the beginning, Putin's decisive action has proved that the United States and the entire Western world today are a group of weak people who only have their own small profits, and they have no qualifications to bargain with China and Russia, nor do they have the courage to fight to the death for Taiwan's marginal interests.
Of course, these Taiwan independence elements can easily say that Taiwan today is the core of the strategic interests of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, and the United States cannot lose it. But what we want to point out is that the premise of this statement is that the United States is still large enough and has enough interests in the Asia-Pacific region to defend. But as the United States continues to weaken, when the interests of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region are becoming less and less, or the interests of the world are challenged to varying degrees, making the United States feel overwhelmed, is Taiwan's position in the eyes of the United States still so important?
The United States in Decline
Interestingly, compared with Akio Yaba, who is afraid of chaos in the world, this article in Taiwan's Lianhe Pao does not fail to understand how naïve his thinking is after talking about Taiwan's "favorable factors." At the end of the article, it pointed out that for the Taiwan authorities, the greatest educational significance of this Ukrainian war is not at the military level, but at the political level:
The cowardice of the United States and the West as a whole is the biggest incentive for Putin to dare to act. Therefore, no matter how Taiwan strengthens its own defense forces, as long as the United States at that time cannot make up its mind to defend Taiwan with arms -- even if it is only after the crisis has escalated, it does not dare to explicitly defend Taiwan--this will cause the situation to quickly slide toward the unfavorable side of Taiwan, and even become the most important driver of the outbreak of war.
Therefore, as far as the DPP authorities are concerned, instead of continuing to pin their hopes for Taiwan independence on the deterrent power of the United States, it is better to quickly recognize their weak and small position and "learn to use superb political skills to find out the way for the two sides of the strait to coexist, which is the best way for Taiwan to survive."
But can the DPP authorities really listen to such insights? We remain highly skeptical about this.