On February 24, 2022, the Russian military operation launched in Ukraine obviously caught the Ukrainian army by surprise. Before the war began, the various signs of the Russian army's action were very obvious: the large army mobilized from all over Russia had long been stationed near the Russian-Ukrainian and Belarusian-Ukrainian borders; the East Ukrainian armed forces supported by the Russian army had been carrying out small-scale special warfare and mutual shelling with the Ukrainian army; and the Russian government had sent a tough message to the Ukrainian government through various diplomatic channels.
If the above signs are not very clear and clear, then it is only a matter of time before Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly recognized the two "republics" in eastern Ukraine in a televised speech on February 21. Theoretically, the Ukrainian army should have been ready for war in the three days from the 21st to the 24th. But why did the Ukrainian army turn a blind eye to such obvious war signals?
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed presidential decrees recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, heralding the inevitable nature of war.
First, Russia is ready to strike, false and true, true and false
The use of military exercises to mobilize troops to confuse the enemy is not uncommon in the history of war, but it is also not uncommon to use military exercises as a means of exerting pressure in an attempt to subjugate soldiers without a fight. Thus, when the Russian military mobilizes a large number of troops near Ukraine's eastern border in the name of military exercises and training, it may be both a symptom of war and a mere means of exerting pressure on Ukraine. Many in the Ukrainian government and military will inevitably take chances.
On February 10, Russia deployed its troops inside a Belarusian military base near the Ukrainian border under the guise of participating in the "Alliance Determination-2022" joint military exercise
Since the mobilization of large troops into the Russian-Ukrainian border in 2021, the Russian army has repeatedly announced the withdrawal of troops. However, the troops mobilized in the name of withdrawal have concealed the truth and falsehood through various methods such as less withdrawal and more retention, transfer of garrisons, cross-exchange of garrisons, concealed camouflage, etc., so that Ukraine cannot understand the true intentions and deployment of the Russian army. As a powerful offensive party, the Russian army only needs to be ready to take the bow on the border to firmly grasp the initiative of the war. Ukraine, whose national strength and military strength are far inferior to Russia's, can only fantasize politically that the Russian army will not attack and will passively defend militarily.
Russian tank units participating in the exercise were transferred by rail.
Second, Zelenskiy was involuntarily overwhelmed and could not stop
Although Zelenskiy's government came to power after elections, it received only 30.24% of the vote in the first round of voting. Based on the total number of voters voting 18.894 million and the turnout rate of 63.52%, Zelenskiy's supporters are about 5.713 million, accounting for only 19.2% of the 29.745 million registered voters, which is the true support rate of zelenskiy's government.
Zelenskiy went from being the president in the TV series to the president in reality
Under the mature political systems of Western countries, political parties support candidates to form a government with a sufficient talent pool provided by political parties. The shadow cabinet system adopted by countries such as the United Kingdom is a typical example. As a political amateur by actor background, Zelenskiy's People's Servant Party was hastily formed before the general election, and even the name of the party was copied from the TV series "Servant of the People" in which he starred. Such a party not only has no political influence, but also cannot have a talent reserve.
Zelenskiy (left) has been in power for less than 5 months and broke out the "recording gate" incident. Then-Prime Minister Goncharuk (right) resigned after belittling the president for not understanding the economy in the recording.
Zelenskiy's successful presidency apparently did not depend on the support of the newly formed Servants of the People's Party. According to the defeated former President Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskiy was a puppet of the Ukrainian big capitalist Kolomoisky.
Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky.
At the same time, the Zelenskiy government and the capital behind it have obvious pro-Western political tendencies, and they are unconditionally inclined to the West in many fields such as national defense, economy, and diplomacy, so that the formulation of the Zelensky government's domestic and foreign policies in Ukraine, the appointment and dismissal of senior officials in the government and the military, and so on must be based on the face of the West. Therefore, the Zelensky government, which has no prestige in Ukraine, is unable to adjust Ukraine's policy toward Russia on its own, even if it knows that the Russian army is going to war.
Zelenskiy, powerless in the face of a stalemate.
Third, the Ukrainian army is mixed with fish and dragons, and its command is chaotic
Ukrainian forces suffered successive heavy losses in the Crimean incident in 2014 and the conflict in East Ukraine. Since then, the composition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has changed. After the defeat of the government forces under the command of the Ukrainian Defense Forces was greatly weakened in strength and status, the importance of paramilitary organizations such as the National Guard and special police under the Ministry of Internal Affairs began to rise, and the civilian paramilitary organizations supported by the West began to rise.
In the 2014 east-Ukraine conflict, a large number of Ukrainian government soldiers were captured.
Compared with the demoralized and old-equipped government forces, these civilian paramilitary organizations are not only resolutely anti-Russian, but also can bypass the Ukrainian government and directly receive financial and weapons assistance from the West, and can also get guidance from military advisers sent by Western countries. These civilian paramilitary organizations have been seen in successive conflicts in eastern Ukraine. They nominally accept unified command from the Ukrainian government forces, but tend to go their own way in combat, with a separate system of logistical supplies and personnel replenishment. Since 2014, a significant proportion of the Ukrainian armed forces that have been opposed to local armed forces in Eastern Ukraine on the East Ukrainian front have been these civilian paramilitary organizations that do not listen to the announcement.
The newly emerging Ukrainian civilian paramilitary group openly displayed the Nazi flag.
These civilian paramilitary organizations, which have long been deployed on the eastern Ukrainian front, have long been accustomed to not being spared the lives of foreign monarchs, and neither Poroshenko nor Zelenskiy are too binding on them. Therefore, even if the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian military leadership knew that the Russian military was about to launch military operations after February 21, they could not integrate the Ukrainian military forces in the eastern Ukrainian region in a short period of time to prepare for war.
Zelenskiy personally inspected the front many times before the war, but he did not command the Ukrainian army.
4. Western aid is late, and the Ukrainian army is in a hurry
When there were signs that the Russian military was about to take major action, Western countries began to urgently provide military assistance to Ukraine. But the aid from the Western countries not only came too late, but also in quantity and quality enough to arm the Ukrainian army.
In terms of timing, this round of military assistance began in December 2021, just over two months after the start of the war on February 24. In such a short period of time, it is impossible for Ukrainian soldiers with insufficient training level and who are accustomed to using Soviet-style equipment to skillfully operate and use advanced and complex NATO standard weapons and equipment.
Ukrainian soldiers are showing Zelenskiy the western aid weapons they have received.
In terms of quantity, the number of weapons and ammunition aided by the West is not much. Before the war, the United States provided Ukraine with 170 tons of weapons and ammunition and a variety of equipment in two batches. This bit of ammunition is not enough to sustain a brigade-sized battle. Other Western countries also provide limited quantities of weapons and ammunition.
The Ukrainian army receives weapons and equipment aided by the United States
From the perspective of quality, the weapons aided by the West are mainly portable anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and other small weapons. In the regular warfare of the group army of the system confrontation, the role of these light weapons is extremely limited, and they are wiped out by the long-range firepower of the Russian army before they even enter their own effective range.
Ukrainian soldiers are learning British-aided NLAW anti-tank missiles. The performance of this type of missile is inferior: it cannot be guided throughout the whole process, the range is only 600 meters, and the life span is more than half.
5. The political situation in Ukraine is corrupt and its war preparedness is lax
When the Soviet Union collapsed, it left a rich military legacy for Ukraine. The number of nuclear warheads alone exceeds 2,000, and it also has a complete long-range strike system including strategic missiles and strategic bombers, which makes the newly established Ukraine the world's third nuclear power after the United States and Russia overnight. Ukrainian armaments factories can produce advanced weapons and equipment such as aircraft carriers, guided missile cruisers, intercontinental missiles, main battle tanks, and large transport aircraft. Theoretically, the Soviet Union alone could have armed an army of more than a million people with weapons and equipment. But today, more than 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine doesn't even have enough rifles.
After the Ukrainian government issued a mobilization order, it began to distribute weapons to the population. However, due to insufficient inventory, it can only be trained with wooden guns. This is a great irony for Ukraine, once a major military-industrial producer.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Ukrainian government has been known worldwide for its corruption. In the 2021 Global Corruption Perceptions Index rankings, Ukraine ranks 122 out of 180 countries. Corruption in Ukraine is systematic, and successive presidents and prime ministers have been accused of corruption and even investigated. Ukraine's armed forces are the hardest hit areas of corruption, and it is an open secret for the Ukrainian army to steal weapons and military materiel and embezzle military expenses. Because the Ukrainian army even dared to sell weapons aided by the United States, the United States had to threaten to stop aid.
Outgoing President Petro Poroshenko has been charged with multiple charges, including treason and corruption. Poroshenko defends himself in front of the courthouse.
Beauty Prime Minister Tymoshenko was once sentenced to 7 years in prison for abuse of power.
Under the systematic corruption of the Ukrainian government and army, no combat readiness plan can be implemented. The arsenal showing a large amount of weapons and ammunition stored in the account books has long been emptied, but when the superior inspection cannot cover it, the evidence is destroyed in the form of an explosion in the arsenal. This is also an important reason why arsenal explosions often occur in Ukraine.
An explosion occurred in 2017 at an arsenal 176 kilometers east of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.