The market value under the version of the puzzle shock when the eagle flapped its wings

002555, which has the mission of "bringing happiness to the world", may not be happy this week. As of the close of trading on February 25, the company's stock price closed at 21.35 yuan per share, a decline of 16.41% in one week, and the total market value evaporated by nearly 9.3 billion yuan.

The reason why the share price of 37 Interactive Entertainment, which is located in the mobile game track, is related to a rumor in the market that "the game company will not issue a new version in 2022". However, a person from the securities department of a listed company told reporters: "We have never heard the exact news about whether the version number is issued or not. ”

Although the rumors of the suspension of the version number have been "confirmed" and nothing, the company's stock price has not quickly returned to the starting point of the decline. Is the decline in the stock price of 37 Interactive Entertainment caused by the "accidental injury" of external news, or the outbreak after the accumulation of internal factors?

The suspension number message was not confirmed

Behind this round of stock price decline in the game sector, the focus of the market is whether the game version number has really been stopped. Judging from the news, the approval information of a batch of domestic online game version numbers recently released by the State Press and Publication Administration is still on July 22, 2021, and it is precisely since then that the rumors on the market about the tightening and suspension of the approval of game version numbers have not been interrupted.

In fact, the tightening of the approval of the game version number is almost the consensus of the market, but if the game version number is confirmed to be suspended in 2022, it will undoubtedly have a greater negative impact on the game listed companies in A shares.

A staff member of the Game Publishing Working Committee of the China Audiovisual and Digital Publishing Association said in an interview with reporters: "We have not received a notice to stop the distribution of game version numbers. ”

The relevant staff of the State Press and Publication Administration have also previously said that they can pay attention to the announcement information on the official website, but at present (the Publication Administration) is still receiving the version number application of the game company normally.

People in the game industry also believe that the credibility of the "version number suspension" rumors is not high. "We've never heard anything exact about whether the version number is issued or not." A person from the securities department of a game listed company told reporters. In addition, the reporter also interviewed the practitioners of several mobile game companies, and the respondents generally said that they had not heard of the news of the "suspension of the 2022 version".

After experiencing a sharp decline in stock prices, 37 Interactive Entertainment also said on the investor interactive platform on February 23: "The issuance of domestic game version numbers is subject to the notice issued by the official channels of the State Press and Publication Administration, and the company has not yet received a notice from the relevant departments." On the same day, the share price of 37 Interactive Entertainment rose by 3.81%.

The suspension of the version number has not been confirmed. However, this also leads to another layer of thinking: if the version number is really discontinued in the future, what new requirements will be put forward for game companies?

Boutique to build the ability or win or lose

"If the version number is discontinued, it will promote the output of high-quality games." The staff of the above-mentioned game listed company answered the reporter's question, "Whether it is to approve the game version number becoming stricter, or no new version number, it puts forward higher requirements for the game enterprise to operate the existing version number resources." How to build high-quality games around the existing version number resources and maximize the value of games in the life cycle will become the focus of future thinking of game companies. ”

Game industry analyst Zhang Shule also held a similar view in an interview with reporters: "The suspension of version numbers and the reduction of distribution year by year will promote the creation of high-quality games." Zhang Shule believes that the suspension of the issuance of version numbers will not have too much impact on the existing huge game inventory and games with long life cycles in China. At the same time, domestic game manufacturers will sink their hearts to tap the potential of high-quality games. "This has a catalytic effect on the growth of domestic games, and has a certain elimination effect on some domestic skinning and copycat games."

So, will 37 Interactive Entertainment be the "lucky one" in this opportunity? Judging from the past history, it is still doubtful whether 37 Mutual Entertainment can benefit.

The previous operation mode of 37 Interactive Entertainment was to use "legendary" and "miracle" domestic online game users as the audience, and look for high-net users through the purchase of the net. As long as the per capita lifetime value of users is higher than the per capita acquisition cost, they can make money. The logic of these games is designed around the experience of superpaid users, promoting their continuous payment.

However, compared with boutique mobile games, the life cycle of such games is short, the reputation is not high, and it is difficult to operate for a long time. In the app stores such as Huawei, Apple, and Xiaomi, in the comments below the game "Douluo Continent: Soul Division Showdown" previously promoted by 37 Interactive Entertainment, there are still many criticisms about the game mode, playability, and excessive kryptonite, as well as the claim that it is "exactly the same as animation". In addition, on the black cat complaint platform, complaints about the games of 37 Interactive Entertainment are continuous.

Moreover, the cost of game purchases is rising. According to DataEye data, in 2020, the average number of domestic mobile games released more than 90,000 sets of materials per day throughout the year, due to the excessive demand, resulting in a sharp increase in the cost of buying. According to the financial report of 37 Interactive Entertainment, as of the end of September 2021, the sales expense was 7.273 billion yuan, an increase of 8.75% year-on-year. On the other hand, high-quality mobile games such as "Original God" and "Awakening of All Nations" have also squeezed into the buying market, and "the highest price" is becoming a trend.

Based on the above reasons, the market's doubts about how high the ceiling of 37 Interactive Entertainment can be interrupted. However, it is worth noting that in the third quarter of 2021, when mentioning the reason for the increase in R&D expenses by 135 million yuan, 37 Interactive Entertainment explained: "In order to improve the 'R&D integration' strategy, the company continued to increase R&D investment during the reporting period. It can be seen that 37 Interactive Entertainment also realized that whether it can create a high-quality game has become a key winner and loser in the context of the tightening of the version number.

Did the original eagle grow up?

In addition to the boutique strategy, "going to sea" has also become a must for many game companies. "In recent years, the trend of game manufacturers rushing to sea has become more and more obvious. The version number factor may have a driving effect on this, so that game companies increase their investment in 'going to sea'. This may contribute to the situation in which domestic games go abroad to participate in global competition. Zhang Shule told reporters.

According to the "2021 China Game Industry Report", the actual sales revenue of China's mobile game market in 2021 was 225.538 billion yuan, an increase of 7.57% year-on-year, and the scale of mobile game users reached 656 million people, an increase of 0.23% year-on-year. This means that the growth of domestic mobile game users has almost stagnated. "Compared with home console games, PC games and other products, domestic manufacturers have sufficient advantages in the field of mobile games and are not afraid of overseas competition." Zhang Shule further added.

In terms of entering overseas, 37 Mutual Entertainment has long had a layout. As early as 2016, an investment in Archiact, a Canadian virtual reality company, surfaced 37 Interactive Entertainment's overseas "Young Eagle Cultivation" program - the company's co-founder Zeng Kaitian personally took charge and set up an international investment department, planning to spend $100 million as a seed investment fund for global game studios. The main intention of this fund is to increase the overseas advantages of 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Archiact is an excellent overseas enterprise in the field of VR games.

It was also at the beginning of this year that the cash outflow data of investment activities of 37 Interactive Entertainment began to soar, from 3.935 billion yuan to 7.603 billion yuan in 2020. From the perspective of overseas revenue contribution in the same period, the relevant data increased from 920 million yuan to 2.143 billion yuan, doubling. However, from the perspective of the proportion of revenue in the same period, the overseas business of 37 Interactive Entertainment has not achieved a "substantial breakthrough", and the relevant data has only slightly increased from 14.86% to 14.88%. But in the first half of 2021, this proportion soared to 27.12%.

Another signal revealed in the 2021 semi-annual report is also worth paying attention to. When introducing the further expansion of the scale of "games going to sea", 37 Interactive Entertainment said that the actual sales revenue of self-developed games in overseas markets in 2020 was 15.450 billion US dollars, an increase of 33.25% year-on-year, although the actual sales revenue of overseas markets of self-developed games in the first half of 2021 continued to grow, but the growth data slowed down to 11.58%.

For 37 Interactive Entertainment, has the expansion of self-developed games in overseas markets encountered stage difficulties? The reporter called the securities department in this regard, and the staff replied: "There may be cyclical differences in the actual sales revenue growth data of the overseas market of self-developed games, and it is recommended to compare the relevant data of the 2021 annual report for the complete financial report year." ”

Reporter Xu Haifeng Chen Zhi