Small particles of urea
This week, the domestic urea market began to run weakly downward after a small rise at the beginning of the week. This week, the domestic urea market is dominated by multiple bearish factors, mainly the price of urea futures has fallen for several days, causing bearishness to the spot market. On the other hand, the peak season for spring ploughing fertilizer is coming, light storage fertilizer has been put on the market, coupled with the NDRC's requirement to ensure the supply and price of chemical fertilizers, resulting in a decline in the enthusiasm of downstream goods, failing to form centralized procurement, and the downstream is mainly based on a small amount of replenishment on demand. Multiple bearish factors have led to an aggravation of the market bearish mentality, some dealers have shipped at low prices, and local market prices such as Linyi in Shandong have been quoted by inverted manufacturers for several days. As of this Friday, the mainstream factory transaction price of Shandong small and medium-sized granules was 2600-2630 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton from last Friday. At present, in the peak season of spring tillage fertilizer, the market just needs to still exist, coupled with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international urea market began to rebound, the trend of urea futures turned around, and the domestic urea market or bottomed out next week, but the upside space may be limited.
Shandong Yangmei Plain 2650 (up 10); Hebei Dongguang small particles 2620 (down 20); Henan Jinkai 2580 (down 20); Shanxi orchid 2580-2590 (down 10); Jiangsu Linggu small and medium particles 2670 (down 30): Anhui Zhongneng 2640 (down 20); Inner Mongolia Boda 2600 (stable), China coal large particles 2610 (up 10); Shaanxi Shaanhua land sales 2606 (stable); Liaoning Huajin 2680 (flat), Daqing Petrochemical 2730 (stable) Sichuan Meifeng 2650 (down 50); Xinjiang Yankuang 2330 (stable).
At present, the effective production capacity of urea in China is 76.95 million tons / year. According to the calculation of 330 days of operating time, the national daily production capacity reached 233,800 tons, and the average daily total output of urea manufacturers this week was 148,100 tons, down 0.52 million tons from last Sunday's production, and the operating rate was 63.35%, down 2.22% from last week. This week, new maintenance enterprises were added: Shanxi Tianze, Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan Chemical, Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical. Enterprises that parked in the early stage: Kuitun Jinjiang Chemical and Shandong Jin Coal Mingshengda have resumed production this week.
Next week, we plan to overhaul the enterprise: Yangmei Plain Chemical.
Next week, it is planned to restore enterprises: Hebei Dongguang, Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan, Henan Heart to Heart, China Coal Ordos, Jiujiang Heart to Heart, Yuntianhua.
Next week, there are more enterprises resuming production and fewer maintenance enterprises, and it is expected that the daily output of domestic urea will fluctuate between 152,000 and 157,000 tons next week.
Demand: In terms of agriculture, this week's weak prices fell, agriculture just needed a small amount of replenishment, because spring ploughing in the south was earlier than in the north, and fertilizer preparation and fertilizer in southwest China, south China and Suwan were gradually promoted. Industrial: Due to the Winter Paralympic Games, the operating rate of the northern rubber panel industry is still slow, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded, and some just need to be replenished, but due to price instability, the overall procurement volume is lower than expected. In terms of exports, there is no obvious collection port in the short term, and the supply is mainly concentrated in China.
Urea complete cost estimate: the complete cost of fixed bed is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the complete cost of new coal gasification is 1900-2100 yuan / ton.
After-market forecast: supply side, next week some of the early parking urea devices will gradually resume production, daily production will rebound, next week urea daily production or will rise to 15.1-15.6 million tons, but nissan compared with the same period last year decreased. In addition, with the end of some of the light storage period, a small amount of supply will be put on the market, and the market supply has increased. Demand side, due to the decline in urea prices this week, the downstream waiting for the opportunity to bottom out, next week with the steady recovery of industrial operating rates, as well as the advancement of agricultural demand, the market transaction atmosphere is expected to pick up. Futures trends have turned around, the international market rebound and so on have formed a positive for the market, and it is expected that the domestic urea market will rebound in a narrow range next week.
potassium fertilizer
Potassium chloride: this week, domestic, imported potash fertilizer pull, imported potassium, the port has some new sources of replenishment, but the source of goods is still relatively concentrated, large traders still have no clear release of news, the market circulation of goods continues to be tight. At present, 60% of the port red powder price is more than 4050-4150 yuan / ton, 62% of the white potassium port transaction price is mostly 4350-4380 yuan / ton, and there is still a trend of continuing to rise slightly, the supply of large particles continues to be in short supply, and the price difference between different ports is large, basically maintaining about 4450-4700 yuan / ton. Although the large contract was signed, the new supply volume has not yet been determined, so there is no news that the large-scale supply has entered the domestic market for the time being. At present, the source of new goods in border trade is limited, so there is no obvious adjustment in terms of price for the time being, and the price of 62% white potassium at the port is mostly 4350-4380 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is mainly discussed.
Domestic potassium: domestic salt lake finally determined the sales price in February, the benchmark product 60% crystal arrival price at 3900 yuan / ton, the excess part of the railway freight borne by itself, and the two Guangzhou and northeast regions are still not included in the transportation range, compared with the previous price adjustment increase of up to 410 yuan / ton. The official price of salt lake is gradually close to the sales price of the market, and the current sales price of the salt lake market is mostly 4100-4200 yuan / ton, and in the case of shortage of supply in some areas, it has broken through the high-end price of the market.
Potash International: Although most potassium chloride prices in the international market were flat this week, the market today withdrew a large number of offers due to Russian President Vladimir Putin's order for military action against Ukraine. New quotes will appear at a level higher than the current price from next week. Spot supply is already tight, and spot supply is likely to get tighter as klaipeda's lack of exports begins to hit importers. After the force majeure news about BPC potash later last week and the ongoing military operations in Ukraine today, the market is reassessing the export potential of the Baltic Sea region. Potash sales have weakened due to seasonal downturns and a focus on prioritizing the purchase of other fertilizers, so the reaction to the BPC announcement – which has been widely anticipated – is less pronounced. Spot prices in major markets remained largely unchanged earlier this week, but new levels will emerge as markets wait for the reaction of the US and EU to the Russian attack. So far, no sanctions have been announced against Russia, but the market is already considering the depletion of baltic potash exports. Even if potash prices are expected to rise in the coming days, concerns about supply shortages are likely to intensify, while an unexpected wave of short-term demand could push up quotes further. Demand erosion will keep potash prices capped, but lower-priced regions may struggle to find excess potassium chloride in the coming months.
Potassium sulfate: The overall price increase in the domestic potassium sulfate market this week is relatively limited, only the processing type Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers based on the procurement and cost pressure of raw material potassium chloride, the price of potassium sulfate slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the factory price of 50% powder in Mannheim is mostly 4150-4250 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 52% powder is mostly 4350-4400 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is mainly discussed. Recently, with the resumption of production of some Mannheim manufacturers, the average operating rate of the country has reached more than 50%, and the current market supply of potassium sulfate in Mannheim is relatively sufficient. The production of resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers is normal, but some small plants in Qinghai have not yet resumed production, and there is a possibility of switching to potassium chloride production. At present, the market sales price of SDIC Luo potassium 52% powder potassium sulfate is mostly 4150-4200 yuan / ton, but it is still expected that Luo potassium will continue to raise the price at the end of the month.
After-market forecast: the domestic potash market will still be in a slightly tight spot supply situation in the short term, especially in the northeast region, when the spring ploughing market is carried out, there is still a certain gap in the downstream demand for potash fertilizer. Although the port and domestic production have a certain amount of new supply to supplement, but the supply is more concentrated, it is expected that the price of potash fertilizer will still be in a high and firm state, and do not rule out the intention of some traders to continue to slightly increase prices.
Compound fertilizer
This week, the domestic compound fertilizer market stabilized in the middle of some adjustment. Referring to the domestic part of the factory 45%S (14:16:15/3*15) at 3150-3300 yuan / ton (3200-3250 yuan / ton is more), 45% CL (3 * 15) at 2850-3100 yuan / ton (some national potassium reserves limit fertilizer in 2700-2800 yuan / ton), 35% CL (30: 0: 5) 2350-2550 yuan / ton, 40 content of high nitrogen fertilizer in 2650-2750 yuan / ton (some in the vicinity of 2800 yuan / ton), 51 high nitrogen content fertilizer in 3450-3600 yuan / ton. The new price transactions of major enterprises are not satisfactory, the pace of adjustment is slowing down, and the current main cash in on the previous orders is more. In terms of dealers, with the terminal fertilizer approaching, the performance of pick-up and replenishment is positive, and the market continues to increase.
Key Market Conditions:
45% CL (15-15-15) factory average price 2800-3100 yuan / ton, 45% S (15-15-15) factory average price 3150-3300 yuan / ton; Shandong 45% CL ex-factory price of 2900 yuan / ton, Jiangsu 45% CL ex-factory price of 2850 yuan / ton, Hubei region 45% CL ex-factory price of 2950 yuan / ton, Yunnan-Guizhou 45% CL ex-factory price of 2850 yuan / ton, northeast region 45% CL ex-factory price is not quoted. Shandong 45%S ex-factory price 3250 yuan / ton, Jiangsu 45%S ex-factory price 3200 yuan / ton, Hubei region 45%S ex-factory price 3200 yuan / ton, Yungui 45% S ex-factory price 3180 yuan / ton, Northeast 45%S ex-factory price 3230 yuan / ton.
Shandong Lubei Chemical Compound Fertilizer is not quoted for the time being, and part of the ratio is 45% S (12:18:15) 3200-3300 yuan / ton, and it is not accepted for the time being. Enterprise production capacity: 150,000 tons of ammonium phosphate, 1 million tons of compound fertilizer. Shandong Hongri Chemical compound fertilizer is not quoted for the time being, the order is produced by Jiangsu and Jiangxi bases: ammonium (white) 45% S (3 * 15) 3240 yuan / ton, ammonium 45% S (15: 10: 20) 3510 yuan / ton, ammonium (blue) 45% S (3 * 15) 3380 yuan / ton, spraying 45% S (14: 16: 15) 3240 yuan / ton, acid 50% CL (28: 10: 12) 3600 yuan / ton, 42% CL (16: 8: 18) 3010 yuan / ton, acid 45% CL (3 * 15) 3050 yuan / ton, 40% CL (28: 6: 6) 2820 yuan / ton, 37% CL (26: 5: 6) 2630 yuan / ton, high tower seaweed 51% S (3 * 17) 4150 yuan / ton. Sinochem Shandong Fertilizer Compound Fertilizer Tentative Price, Factory Quotation: 45%S(3*15) 3240 yuan / ton, 45% CL (3 *15) 2990 yuan / ton, 40% CL (30:5:5) 2660 yuan / ton, normal orders, the current device 4 lines of production. Shandong Shouguang Alliance compound fertilizer latest price express, reference factory: ammonification 45% S (3 * 15) 3320 yuan / ton, low chlorine 35% CL (30: 0: 5) 2540 yuan / ton, low chlorine 40% CL (30: 5: 5) 2860 yuan / ton, transaction discount 50-100 yuan / ton, the current device 2 lines of normal production. The price of compound fertilizer in the six countries of Anhui is stable, the main pre-order, the local factory reference: 45% S (3 * 15) 3130 yuan / ton, 45% CL (3 * 15) 2850 yuan / ton (national reserve potassium limit fertilizer 2730 yuan / ton); Low chlorine 48% CL (3 *16) 3230 yuan / ton; 28:0:0 no goods at 2100 yuan / ton, 30: 0: 0 at 2150 yuan / ton without goods, 35% CL (30: 0: 5) 2360 yuan / ton (no goods), 40% CL (30: 5: 5) 2770 yuan / ton; 40% CL (22:8:10) 2740 yuan / ton, rice fertilizer (20: 10: 16) 3180 yuan / ton. The plant has a production capacity of 1.5 million tons. The latest price of Anweislt compound fertilizer, local factory reference: 45% S (3 * 15) at about 3270 yuan / ton, 51% S (3 * 17) 4200 yuan / ton, 45% S (15: 5: 25) at 4170 yuan / ton, 45% CL (3 * 15) 3060 yuan / ton, tower 35% CL (30: 0: 5) no price, 40% CL (30: 5: 5) 2860 yuan / ton, interest calculated until the end of June. The company has an annual output of 2 million tons and a total of nine lines. Now 5 lines are running. Hubei Xiangyun compound fertilizer Hubei Xiangyun compound fertilizer new price plan was recently introduced, the intention of the local factory reference 45% S (3 * 15) 3260 yuan / ton, 45% CL (3 * 15) 2960 yuan / ton. The current master cashes out the previous order. Pre-local factory reference: 45% S (3 * 15) at 3140 yuan / ton, 45% CL (3 * 15) 2880 yuan / ton, 40% CL (18: 10: 12) 2660 yuan / ton, 51% CL (3 * 17) at 3430 yuan / ton, 51% CL (25: 10: 16) 3450 yuan / ton, payment, delivery discounts, the cumulative range of about 80 yuan / ton, the bottom of March 20. Northern part of the factory reference: 35% CL (30: 0: 5) 2370 yuan / ton, 40% CL (30: 5: 5) 2710 yuan / ton, guaranteed until the end of February.
Factors influencing the market next week:
The urea market market fell in a narrow range, affected by the decline in futures and concerns about the release of light fertilizer storage, the spot market transactions were tepid, and the demand was suppressed in stages. In addition, the policy is not clear in the face of urea trend guidance, and the downstream fertilizer preparation is more cautious and a small amount of follow-up. It is expected that the mainstream market of the domestic urea market in recent days is weak and tidy, and the local downward trend. The monoammonium phosphate market continues to consolidate operation, enterprises are ready to execute until near mid-March, the price remains high and firm, the enthusiasm for downstream high-priced raw material procurement is not high, and small single replenishment is the mainstay. The domestic diammonium phosphate market is steadily advancing, the procurement performance of the winter storage agricultural market is positive, the new orders of enterprises have been followed up, most enterprises are waiting to be sent to the end of March nearby, a small number of orders have reached the beginning of April, and the enterprises are in tight shipping, without inventory and sales pressure. The potash fertilizer market maintains a high and strong trend, and some of the imported potassium has recently been supplemented by some sources, but the market volume is still limited, and the price of 62% white potassium in the port is more than 4350 yuan / ton, and the transaction is single. Potassium sulfate manufacturers have started a slight increase, and the supply is relatively sufficient.
After-market forecast: Under the guidance of the policy of stabilizing price and guaranteeing supply, the speculation sentiment of all parties may weaken. The high range of upstream raw materials was adjusted, and the cost change of compound fertilizer narrowed. Enterprises actively cash in on the previous orders, under the premise of poor follow-up of new orders, the price level continues to adjust the intention to reduce. Terminal demand will be fully launched one after another, and the circulation and sinking speed of market supply will be accelerated. It is expected that in the short term, the market will be dominated by goods, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range.