The last lesson talked about the analysis and evaluation of the fund, presumably everyone knows how to screen a good and suitable fund, then the problem is that it is not enough to choose a good fund, but also pay attention to the grasp of the trading point, which is what we often call "timing". It's hard to be precise in timing, and in a vivid phrase, it's harder than catching a flying knife in the air. But we can use some methods to grasp the big timing and pursue vague correctness, which will be very beneficial to our investment returns.
There are more contents, so we will divide it into two sections: (top) and (bottom). Let's take a look at (part 1):
First, the importance of timing
How important is the timing of the fund? Let's look at a few examples:
Case 1: Taking fund A as an example, if it is unfortunate to enter before the Spring Festival in 2021, it will lose 18.40% by the spring festival of 2022; and if it enters at the end of 2018, it will make a big profit of 164%; if the time is pushed further forward, buying at the High Point of January 2018, it will earn 89%, which is nearly half less than buying at the end of 2018. It can be seen that the return results of the same fund, buying at different points at different points, are very different.
Case 2: Take the B fund as an example, this fund is the well-known Zhu Shaoxing management of the rich country Tianhui growth, 16 years of 20%, this fund is very cattle. However, if you are unlucky enough to buy at the high point of the bull market in 2015, it will take more than 4 years to get your money back. Therefore, even if it is a good fund, the time of buying is also very important. If the buying point is not good, it will take a long time to turn the loss into a profit.
Case 3: Take fund C as an example, this fund fluctuates a lot, rises fast, and falls very violently. If the fund cannot take profits in time after making money, it is likely that the bamboo basket will be empty. As the saying goes, it is the apprentice who will buy and the master who will sell. When the fund is sold is very important, especially for volatile products, if you fail to take profit in time, the return will be poor.
Knowing the importance of fund timing, when to buy and sell? Here are some of the methods and buying strategies.
Second, the fund buys
(1) Judgment at the time of purchase
1. Valuation method
As the name suggests, it is to buy according to the valuation. Valuations look at the price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio and their percentiles. When the percentile is below 20% or 30%, we usually think that we are undervalued, and this is the time to buy, the margin of safety is relatively high, and the future earnings space is larger.
Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, calculating the valuation percentile in the past 10 years, it can be seen that when the PE percentile is below 30%, it basically corresponds to the low point of the index, such as the end of 2008, 2011~2014, the end of 2016, and the end of 2018. If you seize the opportunity, you will usher in a wave of larger rises.
This method is more suitable for index funds and industry thematic funds, which can be judged by reference to the valuation relative to the index. For active funds, you can refer to the valuation of CSI 300 and wind all A.
2. Equity-debt spread method
An indicator of the cost performance of equity and debt. Equity-debt spreads, in simple terms, are stock yields minus bond yields, and the higher the spread, the more investment value the stock market is, and conversely, the bond market is more worth allocating.
Stock yields can be expressed as the reciprocal of the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 (or Wande All A, Shanghai Composite, etc.), and bond yields are expressed by 10-year Treasury yields.
The formula for calculating the spread between equity and debt is:
Is this method good or not? Let's look at the direction of equity-debt spreads since 2015. From this graph, you can see 3 distinct highs (blue circle part) and 3 obvious low points (red circle part). The high point represents that the stock yield is much higher than the bond yield at this time, the stock market is very cost-effective, and in theory, the stock market should be greatly increased; the low point represents that the bond market is very cost-effective, and the stock should be greatly reduced and the bond should be increased.
Is this the case? Coincidentally, the high points of the three equity and debt spreads correspond to the stage bottom of the CSI 300 Index, while the lows of the CSI 300 Index correspond to the stage highs of the CSI 300 Index.
According to historical data, it can be concluded that when the equity and debt spread data is greater than 5.5%, it can gradually open a position, and when it is greater than 6%, the stock allocation can be increased, and the more the data goes up, the more you can increase the position. Of course, the values of 5.5% and 6% are more subjective, and everyone can set according to their own risk preferences.
3. The business cycle method
We know that different economic cycles, the performance of various types of assets is not the same. Therefore, we can judge the buying point of different types of funds according to the stage of the economic cycle.
For example, during the recovery period, when economic growth recovers and inflation is low, this is the golden age of stock investment, followed by bonds, cash depreciation, and low commodities. At this time, more partial stock funds should be allocated to enjoy the market dividends brought about by economic recovery.
During the overheating period, the economic growth rate is high, but at the same time inflation is rising, and the allocation focus at this time is commodities, followed by commodity-related stocks, cash and bonds depreciating. At this time, you can choose a multi-allocation commodity fund.
During a recession period, when economic growth slows and inflation falls, this is the golden age for bond investment. You think, the economy is not good, there is no inflationary pressure, the central mother will take loose fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate the economy, interest rates down, so as to benefit the bond market. At this time, bond funds should be allocated.
During the stagflation period, when economic growth slows and inflation rises, it is not friendly to the stock market and the bond market, but should be "cash is king".
4. Drawdown method
Refer to the buying time point by the fund drawdown. Fund drawdowns can be compared to historical maximum drawdowns, and when the fund phase drawdown exceeds the historical maximum drawdown by 2/3, or is close to the historical maximum drawdown, you can consider opening or adding positions. This approach is not only suitable for index funds, but also for active funds, but only if the fund manager has not changed.
Taking Xie Zhiyu's Xingquan Herun as an example, from the perspective of the net value trend, there are three times when a sharp retracement occurs, one is 12 years, one is 15 years, and one is 18 years, and the maximum retracement of the three times is basically 30%. So historically, when the maximum drawdown of the stage is more than 20% or close to 30%, it is a good buying opportunity.
5. Emotional indicators: fund issuance, financing purchases, etc
In addition to the above, you can also judge the time when the fund is buying through some sentiment indicators. Buffett said that others are greedy and I am afraid, others are afraid of my greed, and when the market sentiment is extremely depressed and everyone is desperate, it is likely to be a good time to buy funds.
There are many emotional indicators, such as fund issuance, the proportion of financing purchases, etc.
Let's start with fund issuance. You should have heard the phrase "good hair is not easy to do, good to do is not good", it means that when the market sentiment is hot and the fund is very good to issue, in fact, it is precisely when the fund is not easy to do, and when the fund is easy to do, the fund issuance is often at the freezing point, not good to issue. We made a chart of fund issuance and market movements, and the results were basically the same. But one thing to remind is that when fund issuance is particularly sluggish, the market may not rise immediately, and may continue to fall, but the possibility of a sharp decline is not likely.
Let's talk about the proportion of financing purchases. It refers to the proportion of financing purchases in the total turnover of A-shares, reflecting the enthusiasm of investors in the market to borrow money to speculate in stocks and the leverage level of the market. The timing effect of this indicator is good. Historically, when the proportion of financing purchases is more than 10.5%, the market is almost at a high point. When the proportion of financing purchases is below 7%, the market may also go to a low level.
Note that either way, the premise is to choose a good fund. In addition, the market is ever-changing, and historical predictions may fail in the future. At the same time, any indicator can not be absolutely correct, just from the perspective of probability, so the judgment of the market situation should not rely on only one indicator, but also combined with valuation, liquidity, profitability, market sentiment and other aspects of the comprehensive measurement.
(2) Methods of buying and adding positions
After talking about the judgment of the buying point, let's talk about the method of buying and adding positions. After all, most people buy funds are not "a shuttle", many are bought while watching.
1. Fixed investment and position method
The simplest is ordinary fixed investment, such as monthly fixed investment in a step-by-step manner, or you can be flexible, use valuation fixed investment, adjust the amount of fixed investment according to the change in valuation, underestimate more investment, estimate normal investment, overestimate and under-invest. For this type, you don't need to choose a time, you can start at any time.
Another way to buy can take "bottom position + fixed investment". First buy a one-time to open a bottom position, and then insist on monthly fixed investment. It is recommended to buy 30% to 50% at a time to make a bottom position. This method is mainly to take into account the situation that the market has risen before many chips have been accumulated. Build a bottom position first, the market can continue to set the low cost of the investment, the market can earn more, especially suitable for the bear market.
2. Index plus position method
You can increase your position based on the daily decline of the index, preferably disciplined, not by feeling. For example, when the daily decline is greater than a certain value, you can increase the position; or in recent days, the decline is greater than a certain value, and the position can be increased.
The setting of the drawdown threshold is key. Set the big bar, it is likely to find that the opportunity to increase the position is less, there is a large amount of money in the hand did not invest out; set small, and may frequently increase the position, and finally found that there is no money.
In order to find the best parameters, taking the CSI 300 as an example, we counted the number and probability of the decline exceeding a certain proportion in the four common cycles of the index in the past 20 years, such as a single-day, 3-day, 5-day and 10-day, as shown in the following figure:
It can be seen that there are 954 times of a single-day decline of more than 1%, and the probability of occurrence is 20%; there are 368 times of a single-day decline of more than 2%, and the probability of occurrence is 8%.
Through this table, you can set the decline parameters according to your own situation. If you expect the probability of triggering to be around 10%, the corresponding parameter can be set to: "more than 2% in a single day", or "more than 3% in 3 days", or "more than 4% in 5 days", or "more than 6% in 10 days".
In addition, in order to prevent the market from falling and falling, the decline of the index has been exceeding the set parameter, and it is also necessary to add a parameter, that is, "n trading days do not trigger repeatedly", usually default to 10 trading days.
After the drop parameter is set, how much is the specific single position increase? Depending on your capital situation, it can be a fixed amount of a single position plus a monthly investment, or it can be increased by 2 times the monthly investment amount. Of course, if the amount of funds allows, the larger the decline parameter is set, the greater the amount of the position, so that the effect of amortizing the cost is better.
3. Positive pyramid type warehouse method
To put it bluntly, it is the more you fall, the more you buy. For example, you divide the money that you can buy and increase into 3 parts, which are 1/6, 2/6, and 3/6 of the funds, and gradually form a positive pyramid layer by layer. When it falls by 10%, add the first part, that is, 1/6; when it falls 20%, add the second part, 2/6; when it falls 30%, add the third part, 3/6. Of course, if you still have sufficient funds and the market continues to fall, you can continue to add until you feel that the market can no longer be underestimated and end the increase.
Here, I give the example, down 10%, down 20%, down 30%, some people may be curious, how is this determined? How do I know it will fall 30%? This is best bought in conjunction with the drawdown, which is the method I will talk about below.
4. Drawdown buying method
As the name suggests, buy according to the drawdown of the fund. It can be an equal buy or a positive pyramid buy. Let me give you separate examples, and you will understand.
Or take Xie Zhiyu's Xingquan Herun as an example, the maximum drawdown in history is 30%, assuming that we can buy at the time of the retracement of 10%, 20%, and 30%, and the amount of the position is 10,000 yuan.
First, divide 10,000 yuan into three equal parts, and for every 10% of the fall, make up one part, which is an equal amount of purchase;
Second, divide 10,000 yuan into three parts, note that it is not a third share, the first part accounts for 1/6 of the funds, the second part accounts for 2/6 of the funds, and the third part accounts for 3/6 of the funds, which belongs to the positive pyramid buy.
Speaking of this, some people may ask, if the fund has not fallen so much, such as only 15%, what if it is only a little bit of a margin? Don't worry, there is another way for you to make up the position as long as the drawdown increases.
For example, if it falls by 10%, the margin call = 10,000 yuan * 10% / 30% = 3333.33 yuan; and then when it falls to 15%, you can also make up the position, the amount of the position call = 10,000 yuan * 15% / 30% - the amount of the first position call = 5000-3333.33 = 1666.67 yuan. If it falls to 18%, it can continue to make up.