2022 is the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles, and subsidies will decline by 30% compared with 2021. It can be simply understood that if the subsidy for buying a new energy vehicle in 2021 is 30,000 yuan, then the subsidy may become 20,000 yuan in 2022.
At the end of 2021, some friends are worried that after the subsidy declines, the sales of new energy vehicles will not maintain the previous strong trend.
Recently, the final data of new energy vehicle sales in January 2022 was officially released. Judging from the data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has remained extremely hot, and the trend of continuous prosperity in the industry has not changed.
According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in January, sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 430,000 units, and the accurate figure was 431,000 units. Although sales did not set a record, they were 184,800 units in January last year, which is equivalent to a 135% increase in sales compared with last year.
For such a relatively large category of durable consumer goods that each new energy vehicle is more than 100,000 and hundreds of thousands, the growth rate of the profession is quite fast.
Let's look at the penetration data. Penetration rate refers to the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total vehicle sales.
Looking at the overall automotive industry, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales reached 17% in January. It was about 13% for the whole of last year. In 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the country is only 5%, and the world is 4%. If we simply look at passenger cars, that is, the proportion of family cars and commercial buses that we buy ourselves and drive ourselves has reached 19.1%.
The market generally believes that if the penetration rate of new energy vehicles can reach 20%, then the endogenous growth of this industry, that is, the market does not have to do too much education on the concept of environmental protection of new energy vehicles, only from the perspective of the technological progress of new energy vehicles, the convenience of use, and the cost of purchase, it has reached the market requirements, and the probability of maintaining rapid growth in the future is relatively large.
Of course, it must also be understood that the overall global sales of new energy vehicles today have reached 6 million, and China's sales account for nearly 50% of the world's sales. In the case of such a growing base, it is expected that in the whole year of 2022, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market may drop significantly compared with 2021.
The base is getting bigger and bigger, and the growth rate is falling, which is a very normal statistical law in itself.
Last year, the global market for new energy vehicles increased by about 95%, the domestic market growth reached about 170%, this year we see, January year-on-year sales growth rate of 135%, is expected to be the whole year, in the view of Daoge, more than 80%, should be a relatively high probability of things. It should be said that the trend of new energy vehicles and the prosperity of the industry to maintain a high prosperity has not changed.
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The content of this article is the original data research sharing of Mr. Xu Yudao of Daoge Dao Finance, which aims to exchange new ideas with you and does not serve as any investment opinions or suggestions. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.