The Headquarters of the New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Working Group of Guangxi Baise City issued a notice on the evening of February 6, saying that from February 7, Baise City implemented the "no in and no out" measures, and the "no in and out" measures were implemented between counties and townships within the jurisdiction of Baise City. As of the early morning of February 20, Baise City announced the lifting of the ban on Guangxi Baikuang Aluminum and other companies, and the whole region was transferred to the normalization of epidemic prevention and control management.
Recently, in order to accelerate the coordinated resumption of work and production of enterprises and industrial chains affected by the epidemic in Baise City, support enterprises to expand production and increase efficiency, accelerate the progress of project construction, and ensure that Baise City achieves the annual economic and social development goals and tasks; the General Office of the Government of Baise City Autonomous Region issued "Several Policies and Measures to Support the Resumption of Work and Production and Steady Growth of Baise City" (hereinafter referred to as the "Policy"), and put forward 20 specific support policies and 7 support measures.
Guangxi Baise City, as the "green aluminum capital" of the mainland, has a great proportion in the domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum or alumina; at present, there are 5 alumina enterprises in the city, with a total production capacity of nearly 10 million tons, accounting for 10.6% of the country, providing sufficient upstream resources for the development of the Baise aluminum industry; and in terms of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the total built production capacity is more than 2.3 million tons, accounting for about 5.6% of the total national production capacity.
And from what aspects of this policy support to Bring New Development Opportunities for Baise Aluminum? Or what is the impact on the national aluminum market? Fubao Nonferrous Metals will make an analysis from multiple angles such as tax payment, financial support, capacity expansion, consumption promotion, etc., and the following is the analysis content:
The tax is suspended, and the production pressure of aluminum enterprises is reduced
From the current tax point of view, at present, the tax of aluminum enterprises in Guangxi Baise is mainly based on value-added tax, resource tax and enterprise income tax, which can account for about 80% of the total tax amount; among them, the value-added tax accounts for about 60%, the proportion of income tax is about 9%, and the resource tax accounts for 15%; by checking the data of previous years, we can know that the current resource tax in Baise region is on the rise.
Considering that some aluminum enterprises have been affected by it during the epidemic and the total production has decreased, although the pressure on income tax and value-added tax is getting smaller, the resource tax still needs to be paid normally; however, with the support of the new "Policy", the suspension of taxes for enterprises from February to April can moderately alleviate the production pressure of enterprises, so that some difficult enterprises can have a smooth transition period.
Financial subsidies, electrolytic aluminum production stoppage, to be produced capacity quickly released
As we said earlier, the actual total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Baise City is about 2.3 million tons, but due to the lack of operating rate after the holiday and power problems, the actual operating capacity in January was only around 175 tons; under the influence of the epidemic, various reasons such as inconvenient transportation, insufficient personnel and shortage of raw materials have once again caused a heavy decline in local electrolytic aluminum production capacity.
In this "Policy", the key point is that it is clearly pointed out that if the electrolytic aluminum enterprises that have suffered from the shutdown of production in the epidemic can resume production before April of the year and restore more than 80% of the production capacity before September, a single enterprise will give a maximum of 20 million yuan of groove subsidies.
This measure will undoubtedly vigorously stimulate the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Baise City that have been hit hard by the epidemic, under the high cash subsidy, the enthusiasm of the enterprises to resume production will remain high, taking Baise Yinhai Aluminum as an example, the current enterprise has built 100,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been quickly fully produced, and another 100,000 tons of production capacity is in the emergency transformation and upgrading. According to our forecast, most of the 25% of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Bose City that have not fully recovered will resume production before March, and their design capacity may be fully restored before June.
In addition to the enterprises affected by the epidemic, the "Policy" also supports enterprises with orders and markets to increase their production capacity arrangements in the first and second quarters, and will also give certain financial subsidies according to the degree of production capacity; if the above point is only to promote the rapid recovery of damaged enterprises in the epidemic, then this point undoubtedly clarifies the signal that the Department of Industry and Information Technology requires vigorous expansion of the existing electrolytic aluminum, alumina and recycled aluminum production capacity in Baise City; under this guidance, the actual aluminum supply in Baise City will grow day by day. And each enterprise may open a new production line to meet the production targets required by the government.
Reduce electricity prices, transportation preferences, and reduce the cost of aluminum enterprises in various ways
At present, it is known that the cost of electricity can account for 30% of the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, and most of the existing electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Baise City are still mainly coal-fired aluminum production, that is to say, under the provisions of the "Policy", "the electrolytic aluminum to the factory electricity price in 2022 will no longer levy a 10% policy mark-up", which will additionally subtract nearly 10% of the electricity cost to the local electrolytic aluminum manufacturers, and the production profits of aluminum enterprises have increased substantially.
By extension, we do not rule out that this policy will attract foreign enterprises to Baise City for the launch of emerging production capacity, and for the supply side, it will promote the additional increase of electrolytic aluminum.
In response to the problem of poor traffic during the epidemic period, the policy has also made corresponding remedial measures, on the basis of the implementation of the current preferential policies for highway trucks, and then implement a 90% discount on vehicle tolls; for aluminum, whether it is electrolytic aluminum, recycled aluminum or alumina, the current raw materials and finished product transportation are mainly road transportation, and transportation involves the respective costs of upstream and downstream and even traders.
On the whole, under the preferential electricity price policy and transportation convenience, the actual production cost of aluminum enterprises will be reduced, and the willingness of enterprises to put into production will be increased again under the expansion of profits.
Preferential interest rates, convenient loans, the development prospects of recycled aluminum enterprises can be expected
The "policy" proposes that it will encourage qualified recycled aluminum enterprises to give preferential interest rates and credit loan support; combined with the No. 40 document to be implemented in early March, renewable resources transactions must be traded with bills, the actual cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, and feedback to scrap recycling, if aluminum factories can enjoy preferential treatment on the original interest rate, then relative to the current national manufacturers recycling situation, Guangxi local manufacturers can give the scrap aluminum purchase price or will be superior, aside from the existing Guangdong, Guizhou and Yunnan and other sources of goods, or will attract Jiangxi, Fujian and other places of goods inflow, thereby further expanding the proportion of Bose recycled aluminum in the national market.
In addition, another point in the policy also clearly states that it will provide financing advisory services for enterprises, encouraging financial institutions to carry out supply chain financing business such as accounts receivable, prepaid accounts, warehouse receipts, orders, etc.; this point or tells us that the government is currently vigorously supporting the existing recycled aluminum enterprises to continue to expand their industrial scale and increase the output of recycled aluminum.
In summary, the "policy" is mainly aimed at promoting the rapid recovery of Bose industry and the sustainable development of the economy, as far as aluminum is concerned, it is intended to support the accelerated development of local electrolytic aluminum and alumina recycled aluminum enterprises to stabilize the upstream and downstream market supply; under in-depth analysis, we believe that the bearish effect of this news on the aluminum market may be relatively limited, on the one hand, Guangxi Baise local actually has more than 75% of the production capacity in normal operation. The resumption of production and additional production under the incentive of the policy will also be limited, with little impact on the domestic market; on the other hand, Yunnan also has a million tons of production capacity waiting to resume production after March, and the actual proportion of local supply increments in Guangxi is limited.
In addition, under the derivative effect of the "Policy", or in 2-4 months to stimulate the downstream demand expansion of Bose, considering the local radiation impact on the national market is also larger, superimposed on the overall domestic consumption expectations to be better, we believe that this policy is still more beneficial than harmful to the current aluminum market, and for the development of the local aluminum industry in Bose, it is undoubtedly a new opportunity for development!