Public Network poster news reporter Shen Tong reported from Jinan
Yesterday I still turned off the lights to eat noodles, and today I am happy to carry a red plate full of screens! The recent A-shares have really caused investors a headache...
Since the beginning of this year, after the A-share market has encountered a wave of strong adjustment, after the Spring Festival, A-shares have continued to be dominated by shock consolidation. Recently, due to the escalation and deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the global capital market is in a violent shock, in this context, investors can not help but have some concerns about the A-share market.
While turning off the lights and eating noodles, we are brewing price increases! Financial markets, commodities ice and fire double heaven
Looking at the rest of the world's major markets, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed down more than 1 percent overnight, the Dow down 1.42 percent, the S&P 500 down 1.01 percent, and the NASDAQ down 1.23 percent. Major European stock indexes closed mixed, with the German DAX falling 0.26%, the French CAC40 down 0.01%, the Russian MOEX closing up 1.58%, and the early session down 8%.
(Overnight major market indices in Europe and the United States)
In terms of A-shares, judging from the performance on February 22, the major indexes opened low and went low, and the volume fell sharply. Major indexes plunged en masse, with more than 3,700 stocks falling, the Shanghai index falling nearly 1%,the ChiNext index falling more than 2% in early trading, the Hang Seng index falling nearly 3%, and technology stocks falling. Due to the rising risk aversion, only non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals rose, and media, consumption and other declines were in the front.
In terms of funds, wind data shows that on February 22, the net sale of northbound funds exceeded 7 billion yuan, the Shanghai market traded 387.679 billion yuan, the Shenzhen market traded 590.596 billion yuan, and the total transaction of the two cities was 978.275 billion yuan, which was significantly higher than the previous trading day's 900.445 billion yuan. In the previous few days of rebound, the market volume has also been tepid.
Safe-haven varieties such as gold and crude oil rose sharply. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.03% at $1900.3 an ounce, up as high as $1918.3, with gold hitting a nine-month high; COMEX silver futures closed up 0.58% at $24.13 an ounce. International oil prices rose collectively, with the U.S. Oil 2022 April 2022 contract up 1.55% at $91.61/b and the May 2022 cloth oil contract up 1.26% at $96.59/b.
Alan Holland, CEO and founder of the procurement technology company Keelvar, said that Ukraine is The "bread basket" of Europe, and if there is a military conflict on the Ukrainian land, the global food supply will inevitably be affected. At the same time, Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of metals and other commodities.
Ukraine is rich in wheat, barley and rye and is the main food source in most parts of Europe. At the same time, it is also a major producer of corn. Alan Holland said that although the harvest is still many months away, the protracted conflict will lead to a shortage of bread in Europe, and inflation will rise in the autumn.
Dawn Tiura, president of the Procurement Industries Group, said that in fact, not only Europe will be affected, the Middle East and Africa will also be highly dependent on Ukraine's corn and wheat exports, and supply disturbances will also affect food security problems in these regions. For Ukraine itself, the country's currency has depreciated rapidly as the dispute takes place on its own territory, meaning the cost of the country's exports is even higher. Wheat and corn prices have begun to rise. Wheat futures traded in Chicago rose 12 percent year-to-year, and corn futures rose about 14.5 percent year-to-date.
Per Hong, a senior partner at consultancy Kearney, said the rise in food prices would only intensify with additional price shocks, especially if Ukraine's core agricultural regions were disrupted by military action. At the same time, Russia is also an important global wheat exporter. Overall, wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports. Any disruption in natural gas supply will in turn affect the production of energy-intensive products such as fertilizers, which is bound to hit agriculture further. Fertilizers have been in short supply last year, causing prices to soar. In addition, Ukraine has steadily increased its exports over the years and is now a "large supplier" of machinery such as raw materials, chemical products and even transport equipment, as well as an exporter of minerals and other commodities.
Per Hong said Russia also currently controls about 10 percent of the world's copper reserves and is a major producer of nickel and platinum. Nickel is a key raw material for electric vehicle batteries, while copper is seen as an economic bellwether and is widely used in electronics manufacturing and home construction. "The U.S. chip industry relies heavily on neon gas produced in Ukraine, and Russia also exports many elements that are vital to semiconductor, jet engine, automotive and pharmaceutical manufacturing," he said. ”
What is the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on A shares?
For the financial market, the current situation in Russia and Ukraine has undoubtedly become an international "black swan" event full of uncertainty, and it is precisely for this reason that all parties in the financial market have been in a wait-and-see state. So, what impact will this "black swan" event have on the current A-share market?
The manager of a well-known private equity fund in Shanghai said that in fact, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been repeatedly brewed, the market has expected, and it is difficult to continue such a panic decline like Tuesday. Of course, the disturbance of the incident has always existed, for example, with the change and escalation of the incident, it is expected that there will be more actions between Russia and Ukraine, and the United States and the European Union will also follow up on the sanctions measures, but in general, the impact on the disk surface is marginally diminishing, in other words, A shares will gradually desensitize the incident.
Indeed, at the opening of the market on February 23, the A-share market changed the decline of the previous transaction, and after the moderate opening, it went all the way higher. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index was up 2.82%, recovering 2800 points. Track stocks rebounded across the board, with semiconductors, eastern and western calculations, and lithium batteries leading the rise. The turnover of A-shares exceeded one trillion yuan, the first time since January 20.
How should investors face it?
In fact, in A-share investment, the negative impact of things like the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not uncommon, and even some investors ridicule: to do A-shares, we must have the world in mind. So, as an ordinary investor, how do we deal with this kind of over-the-counter disturbance?
Guosen Securities Xingliang made an analysis from two angles, he said: "First of all, when the lightning comes, you must maintain a presence posture, because if you are not there when the lightning comes down, it means that you will most likely not be present when the gold in the sky is up and down." "Investment is long-term, a variety of emergencies, black swan events must not be able to dodge, if the days of a sharp decline can be successfully avoided, then the investment income will definitely exceed Buffett, but in fact, more investors are avoiding the big fall time period at the same time, but also missed the day of the big rise, the final return is still not satisfactory."
On the other hand, over-the-counter disturbances often bring about a decline in risk appetite, according to the law of the market, the most miserable fall at this time is often some high-risk preference varieties, such as demon stocks, theme stocks, junk stocks, and even some funds holding group stocks. Because of the control of risk, when reducing the position, the first thing to cut is this type of plate target, which triggers a stampede.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that in the face of market uncertainty, there are negative panic factors in the current market, investor sentiment is not good, and there is obvious panic in the intraday. In the view of Class Xingliang, in fact, this also provides more buying opportunities. He suggested that investors should focus more on varieties with reasonable valuations and relative stagnation, which are opposed to declines in the time of this big fall because of the small increase and low water content.