Compared with the continued tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market movement on Tuesday was slightly out of touch.
On Tuesday, U.S. stocks fell across the board, and the S&P 500 entered a correction range for the first time since the outbreak of the epidemic, which seems to indicate that the global market environment is still full of thorns.
However, the decline in US stocks on Tuesday seems to be more due to the make-up market after Monday's market closure, while other multi-class asset classes have gradually shown signs of risk aversion last night, which is more noteworthy.
The Russian market in the "hard-hit area" began to "stop the bleeding"
In the foreign exchange market, the Russian ruble fell below 80.95 against the US dollar before the European stock market, continuing to hit a new intraday low since November 2020, but after entering the European and American session, it quickly came out of the rebound market, smoothing out all the declines and turning up, especially after US President Biden announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, the ruble instead jumped in the short-term line because of the landing of boots.
The Russian stock market also reversed miraculously. Although Russia's benchmark stock index MOEX once plunged 10 percent at the beginning of Tuesday, it turned higher during the session and eventually closed up 1.58 percent.
The "hemostasis" of the Russian currency market also helped the pan-European stock index stop the three-day decline and come out of the trough set by Monday since October 6 last year. The Pan-European STOXX 600 index was essentially flat at the end of the session, with the German DAX index closing slightly lower by 0.26% on the day in the performance of stock indexes in major European economies, but this was already the biggest decline among major European stock indexes, led by Germany mainly because of Germany's heavy dependence on Russian gas supply, and the country announced on Tuesday that it had suspended the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Meanwhile, France's CAC40 index edged down 0.01% on Tuesday, while the British FTSE 100 closed up 0.13%.
The safe-haven asset mania is on the run for the time being
Spot gold opened higher and lower on Tuesday, with the Asian session hitting its highest level in nearly nine months, but the European session oscillated downward, falling below the $1900 mark and closing down 0.37% at $1898.66 an ounce.
"I don't think short-term bonds have received any form of safe-haven buying during the European and American sessions, either out of concern about Ukraine or out of a sharp decline in the stock market." The sell-off of US Treasuries is more motivated by fears of normalization of central bank policy and the potential for central bank errors leading to future recessions."
Compared with the continued tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market trend is obviously a bit out of touch. Some analysts said that the reason may be that the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia are not strong enough.
Industry analysts believe that the scope of this round of US sanctions is still relatively restrained, and the targets of sanctions do not include russia's largest banks. But Brian O'Toole, a senior atlantic council fellow who once worked in the U.S. Treasury's sanctions division, said Biden's sanctions could be incremental.
From the early morning of the 23rd to the present, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still changing rapidly.
09:23 [U.S. Treasury Department Confirms Sanctions against Russian Companies]
The U.S. Treasury Department confirmed sanctions against Russia's development group VEB and Promsvyazbank and its 42 subsidiaries.
09:09 [Japanese Prime Minister Says Sanctions Against Russia]
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that freezing the assets of specific Russian individuals, prohibiting Russia from issuing bonds in Japan, imposing visa sanctions on representatives of donetsk and luhansk regions, prohibiting trade with Donetsk and Luhansk, and considering further measures in case the situation worsens.
09:18 [Medvedev: Closure of Nord Stream II will cause European gas prices to soar to 2,000 euros]
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that Germany's decision to halt the certification of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline would cause European gas prices to soar to 2,000 euros per thousand cubic meters. Gazprom, a Russian gas company, expects the average price of its contracted gas exports to be $296 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2022, compared with the current price in the spot market of more than $900 per 1,000 cubic meters.
06:42 [White House: There is definitely no "bye-bye meeting" at this time]
The White House said that at present, the summit between Biden and Putin is "definitely not planned" and needs to be eased before the Biden-Putin summit can be held.
06:09 [Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers message on defenders of the Russian Fatherland Day]
On February 23, the Day of the Defenders of the Russian Fatherland, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a congratulatory message to congratulate all Russians on the holiday. In his congratulatory speech, Putin said that ensuring national defense capabilities is still the most important task for Russia, the Russian armed forces are a reliable guarantee for the peaceful life of its citizens, and Russia will continue to strengthen army building to ensure the safety of its citizens and the interests of the country. Putin believes that a series of exercises and surprise inspections show that the training and coordination capabilities of the Russian army have been greatly improved, and Russia also has advanced weapons.
05:52 [US Secretary of State Blinken: There is no need to hold a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov now]
The two sides were scheduled to hold talks in Geneva on the 24th of this month. Blinken said there was no need to hold a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and had written to inform him. He also said that if Russia escalates its aggression against Ukraine, the United States will continue to escalate sanctions.
04:38 [Ukrainian President Zelenskiy: Decree on conscription of reservists in special periods]
Zelenskiy said that Russia has withdrawn from the Minsk agreement and that the cooperating countries have shown that they have no choice but to impose sanctions on Russia, "I am very happy about this". Ukraine is launching an economic patriotism program.
03:26 [US President Biden Announces Sanctions Against Russia]
Biden announced that the United States will impose comprehensive sanctions on two Russian banks (VEB and PROMSVYAZBANK) and impose sanctions on Russian sovereign debt, and in the next few days the United States will introduce sanctions against Russian elites and their families, and will work with Germany to ensure the suspension of nord Stream II. Biden also said he had authorized additional troops and equipment to the Baltic states.
Related reading: Biden unveiled sanctions against Russia, reiterating that the United States has no intention of going to war with Russia
02:53 [Putin writes to emir of Qatar hoping to strengthen bilateral cooperation between Russia and Qatar]
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a letter to Tamim, the emir of Qatar, transmitted by Russian Energy Minister Shulidjinov, who attended the sixth summit of the Forum of Natural Gas Exporters in Doha, Qatar. According to the Qatar News Agency, the letter included further strengthening bilateral relations between Russia and Qatar, strengthening cooperation between the two countries in various fields, and addressing regional and international issues of common concern.
02:42 【Diplomatic Relations between Russia and Uzbekistan】
According to satellite news, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russia established diplomatic relations with the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" on Tuesday (local time).
01:33 [Russia will soon evacuate diplomatic personnel from Ukraine]
According to Satellite News, Russia will soon withdraw its diplomats from Ukraine. Reuters, citing eyewitnesses, reported that a military convoy of more than 100 trucks and soldiers was heading from Russia's Belgorod region to the Ukrainian border.
Related Reading: What Are the Signs? Russia evacuates personnel of its diplomatic mission in Ukraine
01:09 [Putin: Russia recognizes the boundary stipulated in the constitution of the two "republics" in eastern Ukraine】
On the 22nd local time, Russian President Putin said that Russia recognizes the boundaries stipulated in the Constitution of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" and will provide military assistance to the two "republics". Putin said that in the past, Russia had the willingness to implement the Minsk agreement because it was the result of mutual "compromise". Long before the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic was recognized, the Minsk Agreement was "stifled" by the Kiev regime. The West claims that the Minsk agreement should be implemented, but is powerless to induce the Ukrainian authorities to implement it. The Minsk agreement is basically equivalent to the non-existence of the two , and the Russian side was forced to make the decision to recognize the two "republics".
00:30 [Putin: If necessary, Russia will send troops to the Donbass region]
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the Minsk agreement will cease to exist after Russia recognizes the division of the region. If necessary, Russia will send troops to the Donbass region. He also said, "I did not say that russian troops will go to Ukraine immediately" and that possible actions taken by Russian troops in Donbass will depend on the situation on the ground.
00:07 [Russian Federation Council approves Putin's use of armed forces abroad]
The Russian Federation Committee (the upper house of parliament) passed a relevant resolution on the 22nd local time, allowing the Russian president to use federal armed forces outside Russia. The meeting was held in public and was unanimously adopted. The decision of the Federal Council shall enter into force on the date of adoption. The number of troops to be dispatched, the area of operation, the tasks and the length of stay outside Russia will be determined by the President of Russia. The president of the Russian Federation Council, Matviyenko, said that the purpose of using Russian armed forces abroad is to establish peace in the Donbass region and prevent shelling of civilians, which will be a peacekeeping force.
Source: Golden Ten Data
Original title: Has risk aversion peaked? Russia's latest warning: gas prices will soar to 2,000 euros