Yesterday's NBA All-Star Game and the celebration of its 75th anniversary during halftime distracted the vast majority of fans and the media, leaving Chris Paul's injury without enough attention.
Just before the All-Star game began, the Suns officially announced that their point guard would be re-evaluated after 6 to 8 weeks due to a torn fracture of the right thumb. It also means that he won't be back until the end of the regular season at the earliest.
What happened to Paul's injury? How much would his injury affect the sun? Will the regular season champion change hands as a result? A series of questions, left for us to answer.
What happened to Paul's injury?
In the third quarter of the Suns' home game against the Rockets last Thursday, Paul was thrown out of the game because he complained about the referee and suffered two consecutive technical fouls. From the scene at the time, Paul's reaction seemed to be a little over-the-top, but the subsequent slow-motion replay revealed to us the reason why the veteran was out of control.
The video shows Paul poking his right elbow thumb into rocket forward Tate's arm while trying to pass the ball inside, making him look very painful. And then, during the search for the referee's theory, he also kept rubbing the tiger mouth part of his right hand. Apparently, Paul realized that the injury might be more serious, which is why he was so upset.
It's not surprising that Paul was able to judge his injury at the first moment, because hand injuries were no stranger to him. Paul has undergone four hand or wrist surgeries in his career to date, and in his own words: "My hand surgeons are almost my family now." ”
The Suns scheduled an MRI for Paul on Saturday, but did not immediately release the results. Paul then appeared at the All-Star Weekend event wearing a thick protective gear in his right hand, triggering much speculation. He himself hinted in interviews that he might be sidelined for a while.
'We're 48-10 now, so if I'm really going to be out for a while, I know they can control the situation too." Paul said.
Before yesterday's All-Star game, The Athletic reporter Shams Charania first broke the news that Paul would be out for at least 6-8 weeks due to a torn thumb fracture in his right hand, and the Suns officially confirmed this statement.
Paul still appeared in the following All-Star Game, but only symbolically played for more than two minutes, and from beginning to end, did not use his right hand.
Avulsive fractures are not uncommon in basketball players, referring to the separation of bones and ligaments from each other, but in general, such injuries do not require surgery, just rest and wait for the injury to heal slowly. This was clearly a blessing in disguise for Paul, who, as he himself put it, "Could have gotten worse." ”
Gordon Hayward suffered a tear fracture of the little finger of his right hand in mid-December 2020, but he returned from injury just a week later. In the previous 2019-20 season, his left ring finger also suffered a similar injury, when the team expected that he would be absent for 6 weeks, but in fact, he only took 4 weeks to return from injury.
Although Hayward's injury site is not exactly the same as Paul's, the severity of the injury may also be different, but it can be used as a general reference.
Who will fill Paul's vacancy?
Yesterday's NBA All-Star Game, in addition to Paul, the other two Suns "leaders" also participated, Devin Booker was selected as a substitute for the All-Star Team, and Monty Williams was the head coach of LeBron. Immediately after the game, both men also answered questions about the injury.
Booker replied at the time: "Of course I would prefer him to play, but now, we have to find a way to solve this difficulty, and everyone needs to contribute more." On a positive note, he could use the opportunity to take a break and prepare for the long playoffs. ”
Monti said: "I have met with the coaching staff to discuss what to do next, the different squads and rotations, what changes to be made in the style of play. Chris is a very important part of our tactical system, so we're not trying to replace him with anyone, we just have to try to keep the same way of playing and keeping our performance at a high level. The good thing is that we have a good squad depth. ”
Booker and Monty's answers, while slightly official, also point to the fact that the Suns can't expect anyone to fill Paul's gap, but needs the efforts of the whole team to try to make up for Paul's absence.
Paul has experienced a number of injuries in his career, but his health has remained good since leaving the Rockets in 2019. He missed just two regular season games last season and played all 58 games for the Suns before his injury this season.
It's worth noting that the Suns have never lost in a game he's sidelined due to injury since Paul joined. Last season, they beat the Cavaliers 119-113 without Paul and beat the Spurs 123-121 in the finale.
If you don't think two games like this are convincing enough — Paul missed the first two games of last year's division finals against the Clippers for triggering a health and safety agreement, but the Suns still won all two wins, laying a solid foundation for the final promotion.
In the above four games, Cameron Payne started paul three times (another time Payne was also suspended due to injury, replacing Paul with Etowan Moore, who is now no longer in the team), averaging 19.7 points and 8 assists per game, including 29 points and 9 assists in the second game of the Western Conference Finals, becoming a career masterpiece.
Payne has missed 12 consecutive games with a wrist injury, but the latest news suggests he is expected to return from injury in his first game after the All-Star. Of course, the sample of three games is not enough, and even if Payne returns, it will be difficult to completely replace Paul, fortunately, he does not need to take on this responsibility alone.
The Suns brought in veteran former Lotto point guard Elfrid Payton last offseason, and despite his poor shooting ability, Payton has a certain level of defense and big picture view, helping the Knicks reach the playoffs as a starting point guard last season.
Playing for the point guard position with Payton was Aaron Holliday, who was traded to the Suns by the Wizards before the deadline and played in three games, averaging 7.3 points, 2 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 13.3 minutes per game, making a total of 4-of-6 shooting from outside the three-point line. He and Payton will provide more changes to Monty's on-the-spot adjustments.
In addition to the three point guards, Booker also shares part of the organizational work. After Paul was sent off in the battle against the Rockets, Monty was replaced by shooter Cameron Johnson, who was guest commander by Booker. In that game, Booker sent out 8 assists, 7 of which came from the second half, and finally led the team to reverse the victory.
The data shows that when Paul is not on the floor this season, Booker's assists per 36 minutes have risen from 4.3 (while Paul is in) to 5.8. At the same time, however, his scoring per 36 minutes dropped from 27.4 to 25.5.
Fish and bear paws can not be combined, let The Bookerdo pass organization means that he will reduce the contribution of scoring, and this part of the loss will be compensated by players such as Ayton, Bridges, and Johnson. That's why Booker says, "Everyone needs to contribute more."
Will the sun lose first in the west?
The 6-8 week recovery period is not too long or short, especially given that the remaining regular season schedule is only 7 weeks left, and Paul's injury is even more worrying about the future fate of the Suns.
However, if we take a closer look at the current situation in the standings and the remaining fixtures of the regular season, we will find that the Suns still have a high probability of welcoming Paul's return as number one in the West (and the league).
Just before the Arrival of All-Star Weekend, the Suns had just won a seven-game streak, with a 48-10 record of the league's first, 6.5 wins ahead of the Warriors (42-17) in the West, and the Grizzlies (41-19) in the West by 8 wins, and also 10.5 wins ahead of the Eastern Conference's first Heat (38 wins and 21 losses).
In terms of points, the closest thing to the Suns is the Warriors, but Draymond Green has another 3-4 weeks to return at the earliest, making it difficult for them to close the 6.5-win gap with the Suns. Relatively speaking, although the Grizzlies are 1.5 wins behind the Warriors, their form is even hotter, and their chances of catching up with or overtaking the Suns are on par with the Warriors.
Espn's latest record forecast, updated on February 19, shows the Warriors and Grizzlies ending up in the regular season at 54-28, while the Heat, who are the first in the Eastern Conference, are 53-29. Another well-known data site, fivethirtyeight.com, predicted much the same as ESPN's, arguing that both the Warriors and the Grizzlies would eventually win 55, with the Heat leading the East with 53 wins.
If that's the case, the Suns only need to win another 8 or 9 games to lock in the First Place in the West and the regular season title. Considering they have 24 games to play in the future, this is obviously a relatively easy goal.
Paul's MVP-level performance this season is immeasurable in value to the Suns, and last season's record of four wins without Paul's lineup does not prove that in the rest of the season, they can still maintain the previous winning percentage, but it is still relatively easy to win a third of the game.
What's more, the schedule is also very friendly to the sun. In their remaining 24 games, the opponent's average win rate is only 48.6%, and the ease of play can be the sixth of all 30 teams. Nine of these matches are currently ranked outside the "play-off zone" (after division 10) and 6 are in the "play-off zone" (zone 7 to 10).
Paul's injury had the biggest impact on the Suns' regular season "record" and may have been a missed opportunity to break the team's all-time record.
The Suns' previous regular season best record was 62 wins and 20 losses in 1992-93 and 2004-05. To break the record, the Suns need to play 15-9 in the remaining matches. This is still not an unattainable goal, but without Paul, the difficulty will increase a lot.