Entering the end of mid-February, the second half of the month is about to start, the pig market has been in a downturn, the market price has also changed, the overall loss per pig is more than 300 yuan to 500 yuan. What changes will occur in the follow-up market, and can the state regulate the "sow stock" and "stop the decline and rise"?
First, the pig market continued to decline, with a loss of more than 300 yuan
According to the latest statistics, by 2022, the proportion of pig stock indicators have increased to varying degrees, and pig prices have continued to decline. The hog inventory in January rose 9.4% from December last year and increased by 23.6% year-on-year. In this regard, mainly because the current breeding end is not optimistic about the future market, pig farmers are out of the pen in advance, the average weight of the pen is gradually reduced, in addition, the current pig stock and production capacity is in excess.
According to the statistics of relevant experts, the pig inventory at the end of 2021 is still maintained at about 449 million heads, in a state of high production capacity, the number is self-evident, and the number of pigs mentioned from the pen is also at a high level, from the current market point of view, de-capacity has become one of the more important tasks at present. 2021 is an important year for the recovery of pig production capacity, the price has dropped from a high of 18 yuan to the current 6 yuan, and the high-priced pigs basically no longer exist. Even in the New Year's Day and Spring Festival pork consumption season, prices are still in a state of decline, starting from January, prices fell for 4 consecutive weeks, the decline rate is more than 50%, the Spring Festival enterprise pig prices also continued to decline.
From the current point of view, the cost of pig breeding is 7.7 yuan per catty, while the average price of the whole country is only 6.3 yuan per catty, so the overall pig breeding has basically fallen below the cost line, and the loss per pig has exceeded 300 yuan.
Second, breeding losses, the need to regulate the number of "breeding sows"
Pig prices decline, breeding continued losses, in the final analysis or overcapacity caused, in the next market changes, the state will introduce what policies to regulate market prices, to prevent the stable development of production capacity and pig prices?
On the whole, the regulation of the number of breeding sows is the most core problem for the stability of pig production capacity. In September 2021, the state issued the "Pig Capacity Regulation and Control Implementation Plan", with the number of breeding sows as the core to regulate the counter-cyclical regulation of pig production capacity.
According to relevant departments, the number of breeding sows in the mainland needs to be regulated to 41 million heads. According to statistics, in June last year, the number of breeding sows in the mainland was 45.64 million heads, which far exceeded the number of state regulations of about 4.64 million heads, and issued relevant early warning signals for pig overcapacity, so it is necessary to guide the breeding structure and actively eliminate the situation of overcapacity. At present, the number of breeding sows in the country remains at 42.9 million heads, down 0.9% month-on-month, down 3.7% year-on-year, and the cumulative adjustment of the stock in 7 months has decreased by 2.74 million heads, which is developing towards a reasonable stock, and the future is stabilizing the stock of breeding sows to avoid the "fluctuations" of production and prices.
Based on the above analysis, the current pig market is still in the "downturn", under the "regulation" of relevant national policies, the market will also move towards a healthy state of development, avoid "big ups and downs", and stabilizing the market is one of the main tasks of the long-term development of the current pig market. What are your views on this, welcome to leave a message to discuss, to provide new ideas for pig breeding.