Iron ore | Steel | Coking coal coke | Nickel and stainless steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Asphalt | Crude oil | Fuel oil | Pulp | Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber | Plastic | Methanol | Urea | Thermal coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB
Car red cloud
Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0012165
iron ore
【Night Disc Review】
Futures: futures iron ore i2205 closed at 663 yuan / ton, futures iron ore i2209 closed at 649.5 yuan / ton, iron ore 5-9 spread of 13.5; spot: Qingdao port PB powder price 830-840 yuan / ton; The price of super special powder in Qingdao Port is 490-500 yuan / ton, and the discount order is about 685.
【Important Information】
1. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of Market Supervision went to Qingdao to carry out joint supervision and research on the iron ore market, warned some iron ore trading enterprises, required the release of excessive inventory, restored to a reasonable level as soon as possible, and provided detailed information on the recent changes in iron ore stocks, the specific time, quantity and price of buying and selling, and cooperated with the verification of whether there were illegal acts such as hoarding and price gouging.
2. Luo Tiejun, vice president of China Iron and Steel Association, and Rio Tinto (RIO. N) Simon Farry, Vice President of Iron Ore Marketing, held a video conference in which the two sides exchanged views on the operation of China's steel industry, rio Tinto's production and sales, and the recent iron ore market. Luo Tiejun pointed out that the sharp fluctuation of iron ore prices is not conducive to the development of the industrial chain and the long-term interests of all parties, and hopes that Rio Tinto will continue to attach great importance to the demands of Chinese steel companies, ensure the implementation of long-term contracts, and work with the steel industry to maintain a healthy and stable market order and play an active role. Rio Tinto said it agrees that iron ore prices should be determined by actual supply and demand, Rio Tinto will continue to carry out spot trading to support open and transparent price formation, and will do its best to meet China's demand for the quality and quantity of iron ore.
3. Mysteel counted the total inventory of 45 ports of 166.1805 million tons, an increase of 1.7411 million tons week-on-week.
4. According to foreign media reports, FMG's net profit from June to December 2021 was 2.78 billion US dollars, down 32% year-on-year. Low-grade ore discounts increased, C1 costs increased by 20%, and average iron ore revenue fell from $114 per tonne to $96. FMG said the increase in diesel and labor costs, as well as the operation of the new mine Eliwana, were the main reasons for driving up costs.
【Trading Strategy】
Yesterday's spot market prices fell sharply, the decline is generally 30-40 yuan, after the holiday due to the price rise too fast, the regulator continued to carry out joint research on the iron ore market, Thursday in Qingdao and traders talks, warned some iron ore trading enterprises, requiring the release of excessive inventory, as soon as possible to restore to a reasonable level, and provide the recent changes in iron ore inventory, the specific time to buy and sell, the quantity and price and other details, with the verification of whether there is hoarding, price gouging and other violations of the law. This will significantly curb speculation and stabilize prices. Fundamentally, the post-holiday production limit is tightened, the current period of molten iron production at 2.0301 million tons, down 30,300 tons month-on-month, the main reduction comes from North China, after the end of the Olympic Games next week or resumption of production, it is expected that molten iron production has recovered. Hong Kong stocks in the current period continued to increase to 166 million, and the overall inventory is still at a historically high level, while being suppressed by policy factors, short-term ore prices may continue to be under pressure. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.) )
Steel
Futures: RB2205 closed at 4700; HC2205 closed at 4826 yuan. The spread between thread 5-10 yuan closed at 187 yuan, and the hot coil 5-10 spread was 143 yuan. 05 Contract conch difference of 126 yuan.
Spot: Shanghai Zhongtian thread 4850 yuan (-). Shanghai Bengang hot coil 4980 yuan (+50).
1. On February 15, Xia Nong, a first-level inspector of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, and his party went to the China Iron and Steel Association to investigate and guide the green and low-carbon work of the steel industry. Jiang Wei, deputy secretary of the party committee of the Steel Association, attended the meeting. Shao Ji, director of the Metallurgical Building Materials Division of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, Huang Dao, deputy secretary general of the Steel Association, Jin Yonglong, special director, Jiang Shangqing, director of the Ministry of Science and Technology and Environmental Protection, and relevant personnel of the two units attended the discussion.
2. The minutes of the Fed's January meeting released on Wednesday showed that central bank officials agreed that there was reason to tighten monetary policy as the impact of high inflation on the economy grew and the employment situation improved markedly, though they also said that specific decisions still depend on the analysis of data at each interest rate meeting. Data released last week showed that nominal U.S. CPI rose 7.5 percent year-on-year in January, continuing its highest since February 1982.
3. [Media: Guarding against the impact of rising commodity prices on stable economic growth] Stabilizing commodity prices is not only an urgent need to squeeze out the price bubble, but also a necessary move to further support the rescue and development of small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, which is crucial to stable growth. In fact, the round of commodity price increases that occurred last year has had a considerable impact on economic and social development. At present, in the context of sluggish domestic demand and low residents' willingness to consume, in order to prevent greater shocks and ensure the realization of the goal of stable growth, it is necessary to intervene in industrial products and raw materials that have risen too fast, including but not limited to increasing production and supply, price intervention, cracking down on speculation and targetedly reducing the burden of enterprises with too fast cost increases. (Yicai)
Steel Union announced 247 steel mills molten iron per day average 2.0301 million tons, down 30,300 tons month-on-month, night plate steel plate prices fell, iron ore fell sharply, the current market still needs to pay attention to the cost of the problem, if the iron ore spot stampede, finished timber or cost collapse, thread hot coil accumulation slightly more than the same period last year, the absolute inventory is low mainly due to the base problem, the current market trend is the key to see the iron ore.
Unilateral: Maintain a wide range of oscillations in the short term.
Arbitrage: Wait and see
(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Coking coal coke
【Daily Disk Review】
Futures: J2205 plate closed at 3265 yuan / ton, JM2205 plate closed at 2524.5 yuan / ton.
Spot: Rizhao, Qingdao port coke spot trade is now out of the warehouse: quasi-first-level coke out of the warehouse price of 2810, estimated coke warehouse receipt of about 3021 yuan / ton. Hebei Tangshan Mongolian spot main coke 2805 yuan, single Mongolian coal warehouse single about 2805 yuan.
1, [Fenwei information] coke port news: with the gradual stabilization of the coke market in the place of origin, coke enterprises to the price reduction resistance is more and more intense, superimposed futures disk shock upwards, the port market tends to be active, speculative links actively enter the market inquiry, procurement efforts compared with the previous period of significant recovery, the current port quasi-first-level metallurgical coke quotation at about 2900 yuan / ton, some low-priced resources in the early stage gradually disappeared, short-term market sentiment has turned significantly better.
2, [deep blue network] in the afternoon Tangshan steel billet trader spot tax included about 4670, compared with the morning drop of 30, 355 strip quotation and then down 15 down 30, mainstream resources 4450-4455 before tax
Yesterday's steel federation data show that the total inventory of coking coal fell by 1.075 million tons, the total inventory of coke accumulated 142,000 tons, the market expects the Winter Olympics, heating season after the steel coke enterprises to resume production, coke enterprises to resume production time or lag behind the steel mill replenishment node, and close to the two production areas of coal mine safety supervision, Mongolian coal epidemic affects the low level of customs clearance, coking coal cost support returns, coke supply and demand pattern marginal tightening. After the price of coke fell for 2 rounds and accumulated 400 yuan / ton, most coke companies lost money, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to do more bifocal in the later stage. Recently, the policy intervention is relatively large, there is a certain risk unilaterally, and it is recommended to have more bifocal in the black system.
Risk: Policy intervention price Thermal coal fell Mongolian coal sharp customs clearance Steel mill production is less than expected Poor demand for steel (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Wang Yingying
Investment consulting certificate number: Z0014913
Nickel and stainless steel
The trend of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel continues to differentiate, Shanghai nickel opens high and gradually tests the previous high, and stainless steel reduces its position downward. Russia and Ukraine situation is changeable, multinational finance ministers to Russia issued sanctions threats, Russia as the world's main refined nickel supplier, 2021 production reached 193,000 tons, accounting for nearly 7% of the global virgin nickel, after the European sanctions will exacerbate the situation of refined nickel more and more tense, overnight LME spot premium of 368 US dollars / ton, bull resistance is small, in the vicinity of 177-178,000 yuan / ton bears have intervened. It is expected that under the stimulus of the news and the overall upward trend of nonferrous metals, nickel prices are still strong, focusing on the drag of stainless steel on nickel prices and the price peaking signs brought about by the pullback of domestic premiums.
Stainless steel recent steel mill resources increased, although the transaction is hot but mostly between traders, downstream orders are more cautious, stainless steel futures will begin to deliver, there are a large number of resources into the market expectations, superimposed black plate weakening, weakening the bullish atmosphere. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
copper
Yesterday, the Brass shock weakened, closing at $9922.5 /ton, down $32.5/ton, down 0.33%, reducing the position by 1700 lots to 255,000 lots. On the macro side, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is once again tense, biden warned that the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine is "very high", and the Russian military may "self-direct" the incident to create excuses, which Moscow continues to deny. Risk aversion was high in the market, and U.S. stocks fell gold rose. Fundamentally, the recent market transactions are relatively light, on the one hand, because the downstream has not fully resumed work, infrastructure and real estate orders in the northern region are relatively weak, coupled with the relatively high copper price position, the downstream is not willing to prepare more goods, the southern region is resuming work faster than the north, and the consumption of new energy, photovoltaics, home appliances, automobiles and so on is better. However, now the downstream inventory is very low, waiting for the price to fall back to near 7w to replenish the warehouse, so once the price falls, there is still resilience in consumption. Yesterday LME went to the warehouse 1000 tons, lme0-3 liters rose to about 53 US dollars / ton, the import window has been closed. In this case, the price sentiment of traders is relatively strong, and the spot premium is more difficult. On the surface, the geopolitical crisis and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are the biggest suppression of copper prices, but there are more companies buying near 69000-70000 below, temporarily oscillating between 70000-73000. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
zinc
Last night Shanghai zinc high open shock, reduced position rebound, this round of prices for five consecutive days to close the yin, in the 20-day line near the formation of a scramble, part of the funds to reduce the appearance of the wait-and-see, continue to observe the logical changes in the future market, supply and demand fundamentals have not changed in the short term, infrastructure expectations are still very strong, real estate sentiment by the introduction of policies in various places to stimulate a certain degree of recovery, need to pay attention to the effect of stimulation.
Fundamentally, the supply side is expected to begin to recover, Antaike sample companies expect to reduce production in February by 14,000 tons to about 430,000 tons month-on-month, SMM expects zinc production in March to be significantly higher than the same period in previous years, the current regional dispute actually tends to ease, the state of seasonal energy tension is coming to an end, from the inventory point of view, the actual current accumulation rhythm is normal. Demand, reality or off-season, expectations are strong.
【Trading Logic】
Unilateral: the supply of refined zinc caused by overseas energy is tight, but with the warmer weather date is close, the supply is low and unsustainable, but with the gradual verification of the demand side, it is necessary to see the strength of demand, so the probability of the current sharp decline is still low, maintaining a high level of shock, and further trends need to be confirmed by the demand side (the above views are for reference only, not used as the basis for entering the market)
aluminium
Coal accident stimulates energy attributes Real estate sentiment is bullish
【Market Analysis】
Last night, Shanghai aluminum opened high and went high, the shock went up, slightly increased the position, and the overall performance was stronger.
Last night there were 2 events for the bulls is more positive, first of all, a large coal mine accident stopped production, stimulating the price of thermal coal soared, energy attributes prompted aluminum prices to receive upward traction; secondly, the real estate sales field appeared favorable policies, some provinces and cities began to lower loan interest rates, encourage private leverage to save the real estate industry, because the real estate industry is the head of aluminum, the marginal inflection point is a larger impact, at present it is a positive signal, somewhat similar to the end of 2014, the end of 2019 situation, From the relaxation caused by the great pressure of local finances to the whole country, since 17 years of strict control, in 19 years, 20 years, 21 years have begun to suppress when the real estate atmosphere is gradually rising, and the fierceness of the 21 years has led to a rapid inflection point in the industry, caught off guard. At present, the real estate industry is more embarrassing, a crazy release, a tube will die, so the policy is also feeling the stones to cross the river, little by little, but from yesterday's soil auction data, the premium is low, tepid, the land link can not see hope, but also need further observation.
Supply and demand, the big logic is still tight and loose, the supply side of the production capacity climbing, the current 38 million tons nearby, is expected to reach 39.6 million tons of operating capacity in June, the end of the year to about 40.7 million tons (put into production in the first half of the year, so the output will be relatively high, 3980 ~ 40 million tons or so), demand has great uncertainty, need to be gradually verified, so the recent core is to verify the demand side of the good or bad, especially whether the real estate building materials can rebound.
Yesterday's aluminum ingot accumulation slightly exceeded expectations, although the market transaction is better, but there are factors that start after the Lantern Festival, from the perspective of inventory, it is necessary to continue to observe whether the demand can be sustained, the current aluminum is still a strong situation, but beware of the drag of the general environment and the gap is not as expected (the above views are for reference only, not as the basis for entering the market)
Song Yang
Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0000551
bitumen
【Market Review】
The BU03 contract closed at 3434 points (-1.87%) yesterday, closing at 3416 points (-0.52%) in the night session.
The BU06 contract closed at 3476 points (-1.97%) yesterday and closed at 3462 points (-0.12%) in the night session.
In terms of spot, the forward quotation of some refineries in North China held a stable 3500 yuan / ton, but the actual transaction was not good, in addition, some traders shipped 3400 yuan / ton; Shandong region was affected by low-priced resources, most refineries and traders shipped prices down, driving the mainstream transaction center of gravity down, some transactions slightly improved, driving the shipment of individual refineries to increase. The terminal demand in the Yangtze River Delta market is average, but the level of resource supply in the field is not high, and most refineries have stable shipments, which is good for the price of asphalt to remain stable (Baichuan). At present, Shandong asphalt spot 3370-3520, East China spot 3750-3900, South China spot 3580-3700.
Benchmark price of refined oil products: Shandong dilian 92# gasoline - 38 to 9089, 0 # diesel - 43 to 7279.
Due to the optimistic expectations of the Iran negotiations, the short-term bearish concerns about oil prices have intensified, and bitumen has returned to spot logic after losing cost support. The current fundamentals are weak, the asphalt/crude oil disc cracking spread continues to decline, considering that the fundamental strength of the two is different, and the asphalt volatility is far less than crude oil, you can try to do more asphalt cracking spreads under the pattern of oil price stabilization. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entering the market)
crude
Crude oil settled, WTI2203 contract 91.76 down $1.90/barrel or 2.03%; Brent2204 contract 92.97 down $1.84/barrel or 1.94%. The main Contract for China's INE crude oil futures rose 6.1 to 566.1 yuan / barrel in 2204 and fell 2.5 to 563.6 yuan / barrel in the night session. Brent's first monthly difference is +0.06 to $2.23/barrel
Yesterday afternoon, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, and many parties successively issued external statements. Biden warned that the probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is "very high" and that the Russian military may "self-direct" the incident to create excuses. Moscow continues to deny this. Blinken proposed meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov next week.
In the US market, affected by the cold wave at the beginning of the month, the nearly 1.2 million barrels/day refinery capacity of the US Bay suspension was resumed on Thursday, and the gasoline and diesel 321 cracking spread fell sharply by more than 15% from the previous high of 24 US dollars / barrel to the high of 20 US dollars / barrel, but it is still at an 8-year seasonal high. Sheffield, CEO of shale oil merchant Pineer, recently said that shale oil production is unlikely to grow significantly due to the lack of sufficient fracturing operators and enough sand.
On the macro side, St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may need to raise interest rates above 2 percent to curb inflation.
The current crude oil pricing logic is mainly derived from geopolitical events. The Iran negotiations are more bearish for oil prices, and the expectation of short-term support lifting is more optimistic, becoming the biggest risk to oil prices. The Conflict between Russia and Ukraine is further intensifying, and the unpredictability of the event is relatively large, resulting in sharp intraday fluctuations in oil prices, which are not yet fully priced as a bullish driver. Short-term oil price volatility is high, the disk surface is wide oscillation, it is recommended to avoid risks in light positions.
fuel oil
The FU05 contract closed at 3194 points (-0.28%) yesterday and closed at 3164 points (-0.94%) in the night session.
The LU05 contract closed at 4220 points (+0.40%) yesterday and closed at 4207 (-0.31%) in the night session.
Singapore Low Sulphur 380 is estimated at US$716.17/ton, High Sulphur 380 is estimated at US$511.76/ton, the high-low sulphur spread is US$204/ton, and the low-sulphur-diesel spread is -104 US dollars/ton. The low sulfur 3/4 month difference is 19.5 US dollars / ton, and the high sulfur monthly difference is 2.5 US dollars / ton.
Singapore's fuel oil stocks were 24128 kb, up 1972 kb from last week; intermediate distillate stocks were 7461 kb, up 25 kb from last week; and light distillate stocks were 14150 kb, down 152 kb from last week.
FU05 internal and external price difference of 0 US dollars / ton, LU05 internal and external price difference of -9 US dollars / ton, the valuation of fuel oil in the inner disk is low. Low sulfur cracking and high variety spreads, as diesel cracking spreads stabilize, the probability of short-term low sulfur surpassing crude oil is small. Unilaterally affected by crude oil, fuel oil fluctuations are large, it is recommended to avoid risks. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
pulp
【Previous day review】
Futures markets: high volatility. The SP Main 05 contract closed at 6392 points, up +44 points or +0.69%.
Spot wood pulp market: Yunnan Lincang Nanhua annual design capacity of 80,000 tons of sugarcane pulp to resume production, daily output of about 280 tons. Manufacturers tax-inclusive factory offer reference: natural color sugarcane pulp board 4700 yuan / ton. South China imported natural color softwood pulp market spot supply is limited, the industry's offer intention is insufficient, more hold a wait-and-see mentality, the market part of the tax reference quotation: Venus quotation 6250-6300 yuan / ton. (Zhuo Chuang Information)
Spot cultural paper: The double adhesive paper market in Qingzhou, Shandong Province, has limited trading and prices have risen narrowly. At present, the market price of dealers shipping tax included: 70g cloud leopard double adhesive paper 5600-5800 yuan / ton. The coated paper market in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, is generally traded, and the price range is sorted out. At present, the market price of dealers shipping tax included: 157g whale king coated paper is about 5500 yuan / ton. (Zhuo Chuang Information)
Quoting the News of the China Wood Business Network: Russia will develop measures to support the Far East Wood Processing Investment Project, according to the website of the Russian Export Center, the news agency of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Plenipotentiary in the Far Eastern Federal District, Yuri Trutnev, said that Trutnev ordered the development of a set of measures to support the Far East Wood Processing Investment Project. "The Ministry of Development of the Far East and the Arctic, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Transport and the Customs Service of the Russian Federation have been instructed to study and develop a set of systematic measures to support investors in forestry investment projects in the Far East and promote the construction and improvement of roads," Trutnev said. Trutnev pointed out that the Far East is concentrated in almost half of Russia's forest land and one-third of its timber reserves, but it accounts for less than 8% of the total amount of logging in Russia. "Less than 20 percent of the annual harvesting in the Far East is less than 20 percent of the amount that can be harvested, and less than 15 percent in 2021, or just 17.5 million cubic meters," he said. He recalled that earlier the Russian government had decided to ban the export of raw materials. He pointed out that in order to support processing capacity building, the Russian government has implemented a series of state support measures. At present, 12 priority investment projects for forest development have been implemented in the Far East, with an actual investment amount of about 41 billion rubles.
The credit spread of the domestic commercial trade industry closed at +90.2 BP, up +23.8% year-on-year, and the previous value was +27.7%; the risk negotiation in the domestic food and beverage industry continued to rise, and the credit spread closed at 173.2 BP, a relative increase of +95.6% year-on-year, the sixth consecutive month of marginal increase. SP05 contracts should set a stop loss at the recent high of 6440 points in the short hand order. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entering the market)
Natural rubber and No. 20 glue
RU related: The RU main 05 contract closed at 14070 points, up +20 points or +0.14%; the Japanese JRU main 07 contract closed at 252.5 points, down -4.3 points or -1.67%. As of 12 o'clock the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF reported 13200-13300 yuan / ton, the second report of the landmark of production was 12200-12300 yuan / ton, thai tobacco film reported 15850-16350 yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13000-13100 yuan / ton.
NR-related: The NR Main 05 contract closed at 11775 points, up +120 points or +1.03%; the Singapore main TF05 contract closed at 176.8 points, down -2.5 points or -0.39%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of US dollar glue in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 5-10 US dollars / ton. Tobacco flake cargoes reported 2030-2040 US dollars / ton, Thai standard spot or near port cargo reported 1810-1820 US dollars / ton, Mabiao spot or near port cargo reported 1805-1815 US dollars / ton, Thai mixed spot or near port cargo reported 1810-1820 US dollars / ton.
Synthetic glue related: North China benzene butadiene 1502 quotation 12300-12550 yuan / ton. Sinopec North China Qilu Shunding quoted 13700 yuan / ton. East China butadiene quotation 7800-8000 yuan / ton.
Quoting QinRex data: In January, Vietnam exported 65,000 tons of natural rubber, basically unchanged compared with last year. From the perspective of various varieties, the export of standard rubber was 39,000 tons, an increase of +2.6% year-on-year; the tobacco film glue decreased by -25% year-on-year; and the latex increased by +11.1% year-on-year. Tianjiao exported 10,000 tons to China, down -16.7% year-on-year. Vietnam's blended rubber exports to China reached 128,000 tonnes in January, up +4.1% year-on-year. On the whole, Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports totaled 193,000 tons in January, a slight increase of +0.5% year-on-year; the total export to China was 138,000 tons, an increase of +2.2% year-on-year.
In terms of latex, the outer plate remained strong due to the firmness of raw materials, while the domestic performance was weak, and the downstream had not yet been fully started. The tire production line in Shandong in China started earlier than planned, and the lack of labor to work limited the release of production capacity. The operating rate of all-steel tire production lines was reported at 33.1%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was reported at 36.2%, and the overall relative production increase was +27.3%, the third consecutive peripheral increase in production. The RU05 contract is a small number of longs, and a reserve strategy is formed with selling call options near 14750 points; the NR05 contract is suitable for taking profits in short orders. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entering the market)
plastics
Market Review:
Yesterday, plastics fell, with L2205 closing at 8685, down 2.15% or 191 points. Plastics in the night session showed a volatile trend, with L2205 closing at 8716, up 0.36% or 36 points.
spot market:
LLDPE market prices continued to fall, with a linear decline of 50-150 yuan / ton in North China, a linear decline of 50-100 yuan / ton in East China, and a linear decline of 50-100 yuan / ton in South China. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8650-9100 yuan / ton.
Important Information:
1) Zhuo Chuang information, this week PE downstream construction rose. Agricultural film start-up rose 10 percentage points to 40%, packaging start-up rose 25 percentage points to 55%, monofilament start-up rose 15 percentage points to 40%, film start-up rose 15 percentage points to 40%, hollow start-up rose 5 percentage points to 38%, pipe start-up rose 13 percentage points at 37%, and the current mainstream start of downstream industries is 37%-55%.
2) Today's two oil stocks were 1.025 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month.
Trading Strategies:
At present, plastics are in a state of high inventory, and the two oils after the holiday are not smooth, and the supply and demand are weak. In the absence of a trend in oil prices, plastics are expected to be weak. Oil production profits have been low, oil equipment part began to reduce production, follow-up if the profit continues to compress, production reduction is likely to expand, and Q1 remaining new devices have not much, medium-term shock is strong. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
methanol
Yesterday, methanol spot continued to stabilize, commodity sentiment as a whole, methanol futures continued to shock weak pattern, at night, driven by the rise in coal, methanol futures main contract after the shock upwards, and finally closed at 2723 (+0.52%).
【Spot Quotes】
Production places, some terminals just need to replenish the warehouse, the manufacturer inventory pressure is not large, the overall transaction is limited, the northwest south line quotation of 2080 yuan / ton, the north line quotation of 2050 yuan / ton. The price in Guanzhong was lowered, and the quotation was 2300 yuan / ton.
Consumption land, the market has not changed much, the market quotation in Lunan area is 2630 yuan / ton, the lubei market is quoted at 2400 yuan / ton, and the market in Hebei is stable, with a quotation of 2430 yuan / ton.
In the southwest region, the market transaction price has not changed much, the market quotation in Sichuan-Chongqing region is 2550 yuan / ton, and the Yungui quotation is 2500 yuan / ton.
Port, futures disk range shock, the overall market transaction downturn, Taicang area market quotation of 2710 yuan / ton, Ningbo area quotation of 2760 yuan / ton, Guangzhou area quotation of 2690 yuan / ton, the overall market atmosphere is general.
According to the incomplete sample statistics of Longzhong Information, as of this Wednesday (11:30 on February 16), the orders of some methanol representative enterprises in the inland areas were about 339,800 tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons or 1.14% from the previous statistical day. Among them, 186,000 tons in the northwest, +3.33% month-on-month; 44,700 tons in east China, -8.21%; 45,500 tons in north China, +0.89%; 13,500 tons in central China, -3.57%; 49,300 tons in the southwest, -10.38%; and 0.08 million tons in the northeast, -12.90% month-on-month.
Recently, the coal market policy regulation and control continues to increase, thermal coal prices continue to fall, the pit price in the Jinshaan-Shaanxi-Mongolia region is comprehensively limited to less than 700 yuan / ton, methanol cost support weakens, the inventory pressure of mainland manufacturers is not large, but the downstream demand is relatively general, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is limited, and the factory price is weak and stable; with the concentration of imports and the arrival of inland resources, the port inventory has increased, while the futures are weak and volatile, and the port market quotation is further slightly lowered. In the short term, the methanol spot market is still dominated by a weak stalemate, and futures are treated with a shock idea. In the later stage, the focus will be on coal prices and the start of operations in the downstream market. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
urea
Yesterday' main contract of urea futures closed at 2477 yuan / ton, -0.68%, holding 91,100 lots, compared with +0.49 million lots of the previous day, 70,500 lots, and the basis of the factory library was +73 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shandong small and medium-sized granules mainstream factory 2630-2640 yuan / ton, Linyi receiving price in the vicinity of 2600-2620 yuan / ton. Shanxi Jincheng small particles automobile transportation quotation reference 2550-2600 yuan / ton, Yuncheng small particles reference 2500-2520 yuan / ton. Henan small particles mainstream factory reference 2580-2640 yuan / ton, Hebei small particles mainstream factory quotation reference 2620 yuan / ton.
According to the data of Longzhong Information, the average daily output of domestic urea this week was 157,200 tons, -0.31 million tons month-on-month and -0.04 million tons year-on-year. The company's inventory was 795,600 tons, -45,400 tons, +217,900 tons, and the port inventory was 136,000 tons, +0.3 million tons. This week, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 47.96%, +6.62 percentage points month-on-month; the inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises was 626,000 tons, which was -42,500 tons month-on-month. The operating rate of melamine was 66.2%, -1.68 percentage points from the previous month.
Yesterday, the spot market in Henan, Shandong and other parts of the spot market showed signs of stabilization, after the price fell continuously, some downstream replenishment demand drove the market transaction to improve. On the supply side, according to the caliber of Longzhong, the daily output of domestic urea yesterday was 150,600 tons, -0.31 million tons month-on-month, and -0.91 million tons year-on-year. In the follow-up, the domestic demand just exists, and the market price may be repeated. However, on the whole, we believe that domestic demand or lack of significant increments, the pull on the market is limited. In the medium and long term, the impact of domestic supply-side and policy changes on the market may be greater. At present, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, cost and other factors, before the liberalization of export policies, we still recommend investors to maintain a high-altitude thinking. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
steam coal
Yesterday during the day, the thermal coal spot market was running weakly, the main futures contract continued to oscillate in a narrow range, at night, driven by the violent rise of bifocal, the main futures contract significantly reduced its position and rose, and the intraday breakthrough of 800 shocked downwards, and finally closed at 785 (+1.47%).
Jin, Shaanxi local development and Reform Commission clearly requires that the sales price of the pit mouth should not exceed the limit price range of 700 yuan / ton, the speed of the pit price reduction has accelerated, the support for the port coal price has weakened, the superimposed government regulation and control expectations are still in place, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, a small number of quotations continue the downward trend, but due to the current high procurement costs of traders with spot resources, the market needs time to conduct within the limit price range, and the mainstream quotation of 5500 kcal is 1000-1030 yuan / ton. 5000 kcal mainstream quotation 900-930 yuan / ton. In terms of terminals, in the context of the continuous fermentation of the government's price limit policy, the downstream customer wait-and-see mood is still strong, the procurement is stagnant, the inquiry is still based on the price, and a small number of just need to purchase the price is seriously depressed, and the bargain is basically towards the limit level.
At 14:10 on February 16, 2022, a transportation accident occurred at the Well Engineering Mine of China Coal Pingshuo Group Co., Ltd., resulting in the death of 1 person. The mine is a central enterprise, with an approved production capacity of 10 million tons / year, and the normal production of mines. After preliminary understanding, after an electrician made electrical insulation at 300 meters of the auxiliary transportation lane of the 19112 working surface of the well, when he took the shake meter from the No. 2 shift and the trackless rubber wheel vehicle, the rubber wheel truck suddenly slipped away, squeezing the electrician, resulting in waist and abdomen injuries, and then died after rescue was ineffective.
The number of coal mines resuming work and production in Ordos increased to 212, the output steadily recovered to more than 2.3 million tons, the sales volume increased to 2.2 million tons, and the pit mouth price was temporarily stable. Daqin line traffic recovered to around 1.2 million tons, the port transfer was stable, the inventory was near 14.45 million tons, based on the impact of the price limit, the current port 5500K quotation fell to near 1000 yuan / ton. The daily consumption of terminal power plants continued to rise, and as coal supply increased, inventories rebounded slightly, and the number of available days was at a safe level. At present, the policy to ensure supply and stable prices has gradually increased, and the Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau of the main production areas of Jinshaan and Mongolia have successively held meetings to ensure supply and stable prices, requiring each urban area to strictly follow the pit price of 5500K to be limited to 700 yuan / ton, and at the same time urge coal mines to resume work as soon as possible to accelerate production, and spot spots continue to be weak downward. At present, the port 5500K closing price is near 980 yuan / ton, according to the pit mouth limit price of 700 yuan / ton, the pit mouth shipping port profits turn positive, but the market traders based on this price procurement difficulties, and the current port price terminal acceptance degree gradually improved, power plant procurement has been released, the later based on the current inventory level, the possibility of further decline in price is small, the futures disk volume further shrinks, in addition to the fundamentals other factors interference weight increased, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay close attention to policy regulation. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
PVC
Yesterday' PVC plunged, with V2205 closing at 8478 points, down 3.34% or 293 points. V2205 closed at 8527, up 0.58% or 49 points.
Yesterday's PVC spot quotation is less, the point price in East China is the mainstay, the 05 point price is flat to +100, 05 is not below, and the market low price transaction atmosphere is preferred. Guangzhou PVC market market price reduction, downstream appropriate amount of bargain replenishment, the overall transaction in general, the mainstream of market transactions in 8550-8700 yuan / ton.
1) According to Zhuo Chuang information data, the overall operating load of PVC was 80.49%, an increase of 1.89 percentage points from the previous quarter; of which calcium carbide
The operating load of ethylene PVC was 82.98%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from the previous quarter; the operating load of ethylene PVC was 71.31%, ring
The ratio increased by 6.87 percentage points.
2) Longzhong Information 31 sample enterprises, involving 15.41 million tons of production capacity, the operating rate of this cycle (20220211-0211) was 84.87%, down 3 percentage points from the previous month.
3) Longzhong information, yesterday in the northwest region again appeared a wide range of rain and snow weather, to the transportation pressure again. Recently, with the recovery of downstream demand, calcium carbide inventory has gradually appeared to be destocking.
In the early stage of PVC rise, mainly in trading expectations, the recent market for demand is less than expected worry, raw material end calcium carbide is also falling, short-term shock is weak. In the medium term, PVC on the one hand is less production on the supply side, on the other hand, the demand side of real estate completion and infrastructure expectations are better, the medium-term recommendation is more low. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
PTA
Yesterday, the PTA2205 main contract increased its position to the downside, closing at 5360 yuan / ton (-106 / -1.94%) in the daily session and 5320 (-40/-0.75%) in the night session. In terms of spot, the basis is stable and strong, the main port source 05 contract decreased by 45 yuan / ton, in the early February in the 05 discount 50-55 transactions, in March under the source of goods 05 contract reduced by 25. The March MOPJ tail was negotiated at $831/mt CFR (-5.5/-0.7%). PX estimates $1053/ton CFR (-17/-1.6%).
1. This week, the domestic TA operating rate was 76.4%, down 2.6% week-on-week, and the polyester operating rate was 88.8%, up 3.6% week-on-week.
2, yesterday Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester silk production and sales are light, to 3:30 p.m. near the average estimation of 20%, direct spinning polyester short production and sales of 21%.
TA processing fees were greatly compressed under the plan of TA factories in March to increase maintenance, PXN spreads fell under weak PX demand, and TA prices were weakened under short-term short-term correction pressure. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
PP
Yesterday, PP fell, PP2205 closed at 8338 points, down 1.56% or 132 points. Pp2205 closed at 8345, up 0.08% or 7 pips.
Yesterday, East China was drawn 8300~8330, the basis was 05-30~0, and the basis was slightly stronger.
1)】 The operating load of domestic polypropylene plants this week was 92.49%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous week. During the week, only the first line of HaiguoLongyou, The United China Andian, the second line of Datang Duolun and other PP devices were added to the maintenance, and the overall impact was not large, so some of the maintenance devices have now been started, and the operating load has hardly changed. The domestic polypropylene plant maintenance loss was about 26,400 tons, a decrease of 0.10 million tons from the previous week.
2) This week, PP downstream plant starts continue to resume. The start of plastic knitting and injection molding has increased by about 10 points compared with last week, and BOPP has continued to operate at a high load, reaching 64% this week.
At present, PP is in a state of high inventory, and the two oils after the holiday are not smooth, and the supply and demand are weak. In the absence of a trend in oil prices, PP is expected to be weak. Oil-based PP profit is at the boundary of profit and loss, PDH loss, MTO loss, propylene PP loss, import inversion, a variety of production process profits are low or even loss-making, PP valuation is very low. Low profits may lead to a reduction in plant production, a low valuation, and a strong medium-term shock. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
PF
Yesterday, the price of the PF2205 main contract closed at 7320 (-122/-1.64%) and the night market closed at 7290 (-30/-0.41%). In terms of spot, the basis is stable, Jiangsu and Zhejiang half-light 1.4D mainstream 7300-7700 / ton factory or short delivery, Fujian half-light 1.4D mainstream 7400-7650 yuan / ton short delivery, Shandong, Hebei mainstream 7500-7700 yuan / ton sent.
1. The polyester operating rate this week was 88.8%, up 3.6% week-on-week.
Staple fiber downstream pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn factory load increase, polyester yarn mill raw material inventory decline finished product inventory rise, staple fiber production and sales are not good, recycled staple fiber and primary staple fiber due to the high price difference on the primary staple fiber there is still a certain substitution, supply and demand are weak, there is accumulation pressure at the near end, and there is still room for price to fall under the condition of oil prices falling. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
PLUS
Yesterday, the main EG205 futures contract increased its position to the downside, closing at 5009 (-123/-2.4%) in the day and 5008 (-1/-0.02%) in the night session. On the spot side, the MEG basis is stable, the price is falling, the basis of the 05 contract in the morning is reduced by 85-105 yuan / ton, and the futures basis under March is near the 05 contract minus 40-50 yuan / ton. Intraday spot transaction price of 4915-4970 yuan / ton.
1, yesterday Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and sales are light, to 3:30 p.m. near the average estimation of 20%, direct spinning polyester short production and sales of 21%.
2. The overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol is 70.20% (down 4.06% from the previous period), of which the starting load of coal-to-ethylene glycol is 57.61% (down 6.04% from the previous period).
Fude Energy, Sanjiang Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining, Fujian United Refining and Chemical and other sets of EO/EG cogeneration devices to EO, MEG operating rate declined, the overall pressure of the first quarter is relatively large, EG valuation is low inventory is high, oil prices fall under the cost support is weak, short-term price shocks are weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)
DOG
Yesterday, the EB2203 main contract closed at 8770 (-151/-1.69%) and the night market closed at 8834 (+64/+0.73%). Spot prices continued to explore, the transaction turned better, Jiangsu styrene self-withdrawal price of 8700-8830 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton, South China styrene self-withdrawal price of 8700-8750 yuan / ton, down 155 yuan / ton, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market styrene self-withdrawal price of 8450-8600 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton. CFR China styrene market closed at 1210 (-2.5/-0.2%). CFR China pure benzene market closed at 1055-1065 yuan / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton, down 0.5% month-on-month.
Compared with February 9, the total inventory of the main port in East China rose by 0.5 million tons to 177,000 tons. The volume of spot goods in the main port of East China rose by 0.43 million tons at 124,200 tons. This week's total stocks of styrene producers increased by 26,900 tons to 175,000 tons from the previous week
Oil prices fell sharply under the cost support of styrene, the valuation is low, the expectation of styrene accumulation in supply and demand and the high inventory of downstream finished products have suppressed prices, and the pressure of accumulation in the later stage will be alleviated under the gradual recovery of downstream demand, and the short-term impact of oil prices will be great. (The above views are for reference only and are not based on entering the market)