Liu Bowen
Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014252
Shipping/container capacity
【Important Information】
1. Baltic Exchange: 2/17 BDI index 1886, -0.5% q-o-q, +7.4% yo-o-y. The FBX Composite Index for the week of February 11 was reported at 9628.21, -0.3% month-on-month and +119.5% year-on-year.
2. Shanghai Shipping Exchange: 2/11 the week of the CCFI composite index at 3587.91, compared with 1/28 +0.6%, of which the West-US route was 2745.24, compared with 1/28 +4.4%, +282.21%; ScFI Composite Index 4980.93, compared with 0.6% in the week of January 28, compared with +72.7% year-on-year.
3. Clarkson: Global new ship orders increased significantly in 2021, driven by record orders for container ships and liquefied gas vessels. According to a recent report released by Clarkson, last year's global new ship orders totaled 1,746 vessels with 123 million dwt, with a total contract value of $109.6 billion. Based on dwts and contract values, orders increased by 82% and 117% respectively last year. Among them, high-value container ships and liquefied gas ships have become the most important factors supporting the growth of order volume, and orders for these two types account for 59% of the total newbuilding investment in the whole year, much higher than the 27% in 2016-2020. Clarkson noted that in 2021, the number of new container ship orders reached 569 4.3 million TEU, with a contract value of $42.8 billion, a record high, which is even 29% higher than the previous record level of 3.3 million TEU in 2007 and 320% higher than the 2020 order volume.
4. Shipbroking firm Clarkson Platou Hellas pointed out in its latest weekly report that stable shipbreaking prices have aroused the interest of some shipowners, and a number of ship recycling transactions are nearing the end. Shipbreaking transaction activity has increased significantly over the past week, and as shipbreaking prices rise, more shipowners are expected to consider sending off older ships.
5. China Port Association: Data show that in early February, the container throughput of the eight major coastal hub ports decreased by 10.6% year-on-year. Among them, foreign trade decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and domestic trade decreased by 20.2% year-on-year. The port of Shanghai has grown at a rate of more than 10%. In early February, the total cargo throughput of Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing decreased by 26% year-on-year; Container throughput decreased by 32.2% overall.
【Market Outlook】
On the supply side, container production and shipbuilding orders began to recover rapidly in 2021, and the number of new container ship orders reached 569 new ships and 4.3 million TEU in 2021, a record high. However, due to the fact that the shipbuilding cycle is usually 2-3 years, there are still hard constraints on the supply side of the transport capacity, and considering the decline in the efficiency of port operations caused by the epidemic to further reduce the effective transport capacity, it is expected that the effective transport capacity supply of the container transport will remain at a low level in 2022; On the demand side, emerging economies in 2022 are expected to show a significant recovery, but the European and American economies have gradually entered the interest rate hike cycle, the British CPI hit a new high in nearly 30 years, the US non-farm payrolls and CPI continued to exceed expectations, and the market expected fed interest rate hikes from 2-3 times in the year to 3-4 times. However, the inventory of US goods is still low, the demand for replenishment in the context of the US labor shortage is still expected to be converted into imports, and the growth rate of China's transportation demand to the West of the United States is expected to slow down, but there is still support. In the medium and long term, the main theme and main variable affecting the shipping market in 2022 is whether the congestion situation in global ports can be substantially alleviated. It is expected that the decline in port turnover efficiency caused by the shortage of dock workers, pilots and collectors will continue, and the situation of blocked supply chains in the United States will not be significantly alleviated this year, and the inflection point will at least wait until the end of the peak season in the second half of 2022. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, with the recovery of dry bulk demand, BDI hit a new high in January after a slight correction, in February China to the West Route container export coincided with the off-season, freight rates have fallen, but the current global freight forwarder rush problem is serious, the proportion of long-term cooperation increased, after the holiday China resumed work and transportation supply chain to meet the challenge, it is expected that the container price will rebound slightly in March.
Soybeans/meals
【Outer Disk Situation】
The CBOT index fell 0.32 percent to close at 1559 cents/pu, while the U.S. soybean meal index fell 0.31 percent to close at $443.3/short ton
【Related Information】
1. Brazzaq: As of February 17, argentina's soybean crop status rating was 23%, the previous value was 17%, de-identical 11%; Generally 46%, the previous value is 46%, go to the same 72%; Excellent was 31%, the previous value was 37%, and the same was 18%. Soil moisture 37% is in short supply to extreme shortage, the previous value of 34%, deprecated with 20%; 63% were in favor of being appropriate, the previous value was 66%, and the same as 80%;
The flowering rate of soybeans in Argentina was 76.1%, compared with 80% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 83.1%. The pod yield was 43.5%, compared to 44.1% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 56.2%. The drum grain rate was 13.1%, compared with 10.4% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 24.4%;
2. USDA: U.S. soybean exports for the week ended February 10, net sales of 1.362 million tons (expected 750,000-1.8 million tons), compared to 1.596 million in the previous week; Net soybean sales in 22/23 were 1.526 million tonnes (expected 800,000-1.5 million tonnes), compared to 895,000 tonnes in the previous week;
3. IGC: Revised down global soybean production forecasts for 21/22 by 15 million tonnes to 353 million tonnes, down 4% year-on-year. Downgraded consumption by 20 million tons to 363 million tons; Global soybean ending stocks of 9 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes;
4. Ministry of Commerce: It is hoped that the US side will adopt a rational and pragmatic economic and trade policy toward China, move in the same direction as China, and promote China-US relations to return to the right track of healthy and stable development based on the principles of mutual respect and mutual benefit and win-win results. At present, the economic and trade teams of the two sides maintain normal communication;
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: U.S. soybean exports are significantly positive to promote the upward trend on the disk, the problems exposed by south American production cuts are still continuing to evolve, domestic spot tension, unilateral continue to maintain bullish thinking, cautiously held;
2. Arbitrage: M-RM05 spread narrowing;
3. Options: Sell M2205-P-3650 to hold
Grease plates
【Outer Disk Impact】
Overnight Cbot edamame oil main price fell 0.4% to 66.68 cents/lb; Overnight the main price of BMD crude palm oil rose 1% to 5560 ringgit.
1. Oil World: After continuous high pressure pressing from August to November 2021, the amount of German rapeseed crushing in December showed a reverse seasonal decline, and the crushing volume fell to a new low in the same period of three years, and the ring fell by 3% compared with November. It is expected that the German rapeseed crushing volume in January-June 2022 will fall by 300,000-400,000 tons year-on-year, while the first half of the year will decline by only less than 100,000 tons.
2. Oil World: On February 12, the Indian government lowered the effective import tariff on crude palm oil from 8.25% to 5.5%, making the tax gap between crude palm oil and sunflower oil and soybean oil more conducive to protecting the interests of Indian refiners. Low import tariffs will continue until September 30, which in turn will reduce domestic vegetable oil prices.
3. Soybean oil trading volume increased to an average of 50,000 tons per day this week, returning to the high level of previous years. Recent transactions are mainly based on forward basis contracts after May.
1. Unilateral: Palm oil non-main contract reproduction disk towards the spot closer to the futures return to the market. The international palm oil supply is tight, the domestic inversion continues to intensify, and the supply contradiction cannot be resolved, the deep fall of palm oil is still not large, and the general direction maintains a strong thinking. Soybean oil supply and demand are also strong, and the basis continues to rise, but pay attention to the disturbance of the market by potential dumping information at a high level. The weak reality of vegetable oil is still being digested, but the future arrival of hong Kong is declining, and the relatively weak space is limited.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the layout opportunity of y59 short-term opportunities to vegetable oil 59 below 400.
3. Options: Continue to hold long option strategies. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Corn/cornstarch
1. According to the latest survey data of the Mysteel corn team in 7 provinces and 59 prefectures and cities across the country, as of February 17, the progress of grain sales in the main corn-producing areas of the country was 59%, an increase of 3% over last week and 12% slower than the same period last year.
2. According to the latest survey data of the Mysteel corn team on 96 major corn deep processing manufacturers in 12 regions across the country, in the 7th week of 2022, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises as of February 9 was 4.974 million tons, an increase of 1.16% over last week.
3.18 deep processing to 1004 vehicles, an increase of 27 vehicles compared with yesterday, Shandong deep processing purchase price fell, Heilongjiang rose, Beigang new grain mainstream price of 2630-2660 yuan / ton, flat.
1. Unilateral: Pay attention to the rhythm of selling grain after corn years, corn is expected to be strong shock, but the futures price rise is higher, temporarily wait and see. Starch stocks have accumulated significantly, and the shock is expected to weaken.
2. Arbitrage: Wait and see.
3. Options: Wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Pig
【Market Information】
1. Spot quotes: this morning pig quotes, Liaoning region 11.8-12 yuan / kg, up 0.2 yuan / kg from yesterday, Jilin area 11.8-12 yuan / kg; Hebei region 12.2-12.4 yuan / kg, up 0.2 yuan / kg from yesterday; Shandong 12.6-13 yuan / kg, basically flat compared with yesterday; Henan region 12.4-12.8 yuan / kg, up 0.2 yuan / kg from yesterday;
2. Pig seedling sow quotation: As of the week of February 10, the price of 50 kg sows was 1643 yuan / head, down 5 yuan from the previous week, and the price of 15 kg piglets was 399 yuan / head, flat from the previous week;
3. Listed companies: The number of pigs sold by Wen's shares in January was 1.5061 million heads, an increase of 22.75% month-on-month and 50.01% year-on-year, and Zhengbang Technology sold 958,700 pigs in January (including 69,800 piglets and 888,900 commercial pigs), up 19.07% month-on-month and 21.86% year-on-year; Tianbang shares sold 381,300 commercial pigs in January, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month and 18.01% year-on-year, New Hope sold 1.2926 million pigs in January, an increase of 20.62% month-on-month and 76.61% year-on-year, Tiankang Bio sold 126,900 pigs in January, down 13.85% month-on-month, down 15.96% year-on-year, Huatun shares sold 21,700 pigs in January, an increase of 698.97% year-on-year, an increase of 33% month-on-month; Dabeinong sold 416,500 pigs in January, an increase of 36.16% year-on-year and 20.62% month-on-month;
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: At the end of January this year, the national stock of fertile sows was 42.9 million heads, down 0.9% month-on-month, down 3.7% year-on-year, and 2.74 million heads were reduced in 7 months, with an orderly correction towards normal ownership, stabilizing the stock of fertile sows in the future, and trying to avoid major fluctuations in production and prices;
5. National Bureau of Statistics: January 2022 CPI data show that during the period of the national consumer prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year (expected year-on-year growth rate of 1.1%), the increase fell by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, slightly inferior to market expectations, one of the main reasons for the decline in January CPI data, is the pig price "fell endlessly", January pork prices fell by 41.6% year-on-year, the decline expanded by 4.9 percentage points, down 2.5% month-on-month. The decline in pork prices affected the CPI in January by about 0.96 percentage points year-on-year
1. Unilateral: The recent domestic spot has slight signs of strengthening, but it is mainly caused by the price of free-range households, and there is still a certain price pressure in the follow-up, and 05 continues to maintain the idea of selling short on the high.
2. Arbitrage: LH59 counter-arbitrage holding (the above views are for reference only and are not used as the basis for entering the market)
chicken
1. White feather broiler chicken: Last night, the price of Shandong wool chicken fell again by 0.1 yuan / catty, and the mainstream price in front of the shed was quoted at 3.7 yuan / catty. Slaughtering goods is not good, suppressing the price of wool chicken, it is expected to quote 3.7 yuan / catty tonight, steady.
2. White feather broiler seedlings: On February 19, Shandong Dachang invoiced a quotation of 1.50 yuan / feather, which was stable compared with the price on the 18th, and the actual transaction price of Shandong Dachang was 1.10-1.30 yuan / feather, and the actual transaction price of small and medium-sized factories was 0.50-1.00 yuan / feather; The actual transaction price of Liaoning large factory is 1.30-1.50 yuan / feather, and the actual transaction price of small and medium-sized factories is 0.80-1.20 yuan / feather. Breeding and poultry enterprises have a phenomenon of falling into plans, the number of wool eggs has increased, and the market price is more chaotic.
3. Split products: 2/17 slaughtering enterprises, distributors and food processing enterprises resumed business, downstream demand is weak, the price of some large meat cuts in East China fell by 0.1-0.5 yuan / kg, reported at 9.3-9.6 yuan / kg, and the prices of divided products in North China and Northeast China also fell slightly.
4. Boya Hexun: The operating rate of poultry slaughterhouses in the week of 2/11 was only 35%, -15pct, -23pct; Poultry slaughterhouse storage capacity ratio of 65%, -7pct, +2pct.
5. Zhuo Chuang Information: The total number of seedlings of the 25 incubation enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information in the week of 2/11 was 54.689 million pigeons, +1.235 million pigeons month-on-month, an increase of 2.3% month-on-month and 73.3% year-on-year.
6. Zhuo Chuang Information: 2022/2/4-2022/2/10 The average operating rate of key domestic white feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week was 27.65%, down 8.53 percentage points from the week before the holiday; The average storage capacity rate of frozen products was 36.24%, down 7.29 percentage points from the week before the holiday.
7. Zhuo Chuang Information: In January 2022, China's white feather broilers produced 387 million, -16.4% month-on-month and -8.7% year-on-year.
On the cost side, feed prices continued to rise in January, the recent shortage of soybean meal to Hong Kong and the tight price continued to rise, soybean meal spot is close to the procurement difficulties of out-of-stock farmers, and it is expected that the price of broiler feed in February is still at a high level. Supply side, in the medium term to see the amount of white feather broilers out of the barn is still continuing to grow, it is expected that in the first half of 2022, the white feather parent breeder stock will remain high, the white feather broiler production capacity is still to be dematerialized, the current parent breeding poultry of more than 60 weeks has been basically eliminated, and the parent breeding birds below 50 weeks have also shown signs of elimination, and the follow-up needs to pay attention to the rhythm of downstream capacity dematerialization. On the demand side, under the influence of the low pig price and the epidemic, terminal consumption is still under pressure, and the price of some large meat cuts in East China today is lower by 0.1-0.5 yuan / kg, reported at 9.3-9.6 yuan / kg, and the prices of cuts in North China and Northeast China are also slightly lower. At present, there are more empty columns of chickens in the white feather society, and the poor profits at the breeding end are superimposed on the rising cost of feed, resulting in a low mood for supplementing the fence, and recently with the decline in the price of chicken seedlings, the market has the phenomenon of hair removal eggs. At present, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has gradually recovered, but the slaughter is not good, suppressing the price of wool chicken, and it is expected that the price trend of short-term wool chicken and split products will remain volatile.
Egg
1. Spot: Yesterday, most of the national egg prices remained stable, a small number of areas fell, the average price of the main production area was 3.69 yuan / jin, down 0.03 from the previous trading day, the average price of the main sales area was 3.94 yuan / jin, down 0.04 from the previous trading day. Today, the national egg price is stable and falling, the market is sluggish, and the demand is average. Beijing egg price weak and stable, the mainstream Shimen, Huilongguan reference price of 165 yuan / 44 pounds, and yesterday's price is the same, Great Ocean Road as of 7:00 a.m. cumulative arrival of 5 cars, the arrival of normal goods, slow to go, the price of 165-170 yuan / box, compared with yesterday's price flat. Today's Shanghai egg prices are stable and falling, red egg Pudong price of 105 yuan / 27.5 kg, the same as yesterday, the mainstream wholesale price of pink eggs 188 yuan / 45 kg net weight, down 2 yuan from yesterday's price.
2. According to Zhuo Chuang data: in January 2022, the number of laying hens in the country was 1.141 billion, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, which was basically in line with expectations. In January, the total sales volume of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information was 39.26 million chicken seedlings, a decrease of 3.4% month-on-month and an increase of 0.2% year-on-year. Without considering the delay and centralized elimination, it can be inferred from the previous supplementary column data that the stock of laying hens in February, March, April and May 2022 was roughly 1.148 billion, 1.179 billion, 1.199 billion and 1.21 billion.
3. According to Zhuo Chuang data, the elimination of layer chickens in the main producing areas of the country on February 11 was 10.71 million, an increase of 35% over the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the daily age of eliminated chickens in the key production area markets across the country, the average elimination age of eliminated chickens in the week of February 17 was 497 days, a decrease of 1 day compared with the previous week.
4. According to Zhuo Chuang data: the inventory of the production link and the inventory of the circulation link decreased significantly in the week of February 17, the average weekly inventory of the production link was 1.58 days, a decrease of 0.57 days from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory of the circulation link was 1.07 days, a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous week.
5. Yesterday, the price of the main chicken producing areas was eliminated, and the price of Taoji in Hebei, Northeast, Shandong and other places rose, and the average price of Taoji in the main production areas was 4.52 yuan / kg, up 0.09 from the previous trading day.
1, unilateral: the May contract is the relative peak season in the first half of the year, and the January laying hen in the production column is currently at a low level in recent years, although the egg inventory has recovered, but compared with the same period of previous years, it is slightly lower, slightly lower inventory superimposed on the historical relatively low inventory, it is recommended to open a position at a low price.
2, arbitrage: according to statistical arbitrage, the 6-9 spread will be lower in the future for a period of time, it is recommended to continue to hold the reverse set in June and September. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
sugar
1. The Office of the Sugar Commissioner of the Maharashtra State, India, has issued an official order to the sugar mills in that state, requiring them to crush the locally available sugar cane before the end of the crushing season. The Sugar Commissioner's Office has informed the sugar mills to ensure that all nearby sugar cane is pressed before it can be harvested. Sugar mills must notify the Sugar Commissioner's Office and cane farmers before the end of the crushing season, and sugar mills need to obtain permission from the Sugar Commissioner's Office before harvesting. As of the first week of February, the state's sugar mills had crushed 77.293 million tons of sugarcane, with another 30 million tons to press. The state's sugar mills crushed 101.2 million tonnes of sugarcane and produced 10.62 million tonnes of sugar during the crushing season, a record high that could be broken this season.
2. On February 17, Guangxi South China Sugar Group Factory Warehouse Truck Plate New Sugar Quoted 5600-5640 yuan / ton, maintaining stability. Guangxi Feng sugar warehouse car plate new sugar quotation 5680-5720 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton. Guangxi East Sugar Factory warehouse car plate new sugar quotation 5700-5720 yuan / ton, maintaining stability, the transaction is general. Guangxi Xianggui Group's first-class new sugar factory warehouse car plate quotation of 5640-5720 yuan / ton, maintaining stability; Secondary new sugar is quoted at 5590-5670 yuan / ton, maintaining stability. Guangxi Guang sugar factory warehouse car plate quotation of 5900-5930 yuan / ton, maintaining stability, the transaction is general.
1. Unilateral: the trend of raw sugar is weak, the short-term domestic supply is abundant, and it is expected to shock the bottom.
Cotton-cotton yarn
Overnight, the price of the ice U.S. cotton staple fell sharply, with the main force falling 0.19 (-0.16%) to 119.52 cents/lb.
1. On February 10, CONAB released the February market report showing that Brazilian cotton production in 2021/22 may increase by 15%. Combined with the relevant data, in addition to the growth of production in 2021/22, in addition to the growth of production in 2021/22 or an increase of 12% year-on-year, the increase in yield and the help of weather are conducive to the growth of Brazilian cotton production, with 1.54 million hectares of cotton planted in 2021/22 and 2021/22 of western cotton production expected to be 2.71 million tons, an increase of 15% year-on-year.
2. According to the data of China Cotton Information Network, in January 2022, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 35.16%, down 1.97 percentage points from the previous month, and the market prosperity continued to decline. Production volume, operating rate, cotton stocks, and cotton yarn inventory indexes all declined in the month, and the new orders index continued to rise on the basis of last month's recovery.
3. According to the data of China Cotton Information Network, the commercial inventory of cotton in the mainland at the end of January was 5.5545 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons from the previous month and an increase of 300,900 tons from the same period last year.
4. According to the data of China Cotton Information Network, as of the end of January, the industrial inventory of cotton in the library of textile enterprises was 776,300 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 154,200 tons from the same period last year.
5. According to the data of China Cotton Information Network, as of the end of January, the number of yarn inventory days of textile enterprises was 27.87 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous month and an increase of 18.66 days from the same period last year; In the same period, the number of blank cloth inventory days was 33.98 days, an increase of 1.01 days from the previous month and an increase of 19.04 days from the same period last year.
6. According to the latest USDA export report, the US signed 35,900 tons of upland cotton in 2021/22 in the week of February 10, and 2.7974 million tons of upland cotton in 2021/22 as of the current week, with a signing progress of 89% and a 5-year average of 85%; The weekly shipment volume was 61,200 tons, and the cumulative shipment volume as of the current week was 1,014,400 tons, with a shipment progress of 32% and a 5-year average of 39%.
1, unilateral: this round of Zheng cotton strength is mainly driven by the rise of foreign cotton, India and Pakistan cotton prices are strong but continue to rise lack of strong support, the current prices are at a relatively high level in history, high prices stimulate the enthusiasm of cotton planting, the risk of future decline is larger. The domestic market has high short-term commercial inventories, sufficient supply in the short term, and the consumer situation, although slightly better than a few years ago, is still worrying, and gauze stocks are very high. The current position of long and short divergence, in the key point of the turnaround, it is recommended to wait and see or a small number of short positions.
2, arbitrage: January is the new annual crop, in this year's cotton prices soared stimulated, the next year is expected to increase the cotton planting area will be greatly increased, and September is the time when the green and yellow, low inventory will be obvious, it is recommended to hold more September empty January arbitrage for a long time.
3, options: the current cotton price may turn, it is recommended to consider buying a small number of put options. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
peanut
1. Yesterday's domestic peanut market was stable and weak yesterday' domestic peanut market was stable and weak. The market acquisition is more cautious, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere is still in a cold situation. Luhua Oil Factory has not yet entered the market, the overall market has turned weak, the quotation of the production area has been slightly adjusted, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. Northeast currency rice is quoted at 3.7 yuan / jin, Henan currency rice is quoted at 3.7-3.8 yuan / jin, and Shandong currency rice is quoted at 3.7-4.0 yuan / jin. Yihai Kerry, Jinsheng, Jade Emperor and Xingquan quoted about 7200-7300 yuan / ton, and the overall arrival volume was small.
2. Peanut oil: The peanut oil market maintains stable operation today, and the small squeezing lines of peanut oil enterprises have been started one after another. At present, oil mill quotations are sporadic, and market inquiries are limited. The domestic pressed first-class ordinary peanut oil quotation is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, and the small squeezed fragrant peanut oil quotation is 15700-16500 yuan / ton. Years ago, the basic preparation of the downstream was completed, and the enthusiasm for the downstream goods was not high, and there were no new transactions. After the Spring Festival, the terminal sales of peanut oil entered the traditional off-season, and the sales of small packages stagnated.
3. After the slight adjustment of prices, the willingness of the people in the production areas to deliver goods has decreased, and the market has once again appeared a deadlock. Imported rice arrives in Hong Kong temporarily, which has a small impact on domestic peanut prices and has a certain supporting effect. It is expected that tomorrow's quotations will maintain a slight range-bound correction.
4. The main reason for the recent slight increase in the price of peanut oil is that the peanuts selected by the oil mill are of better quality, so the slight increase in the ex-factory price of peanut oil is not a signal that consumption is getting better.
Unilateral: Due to the abundant global and domestic production, the supply of peanuts is sufficient. With the peak of peanut oil and peanut consumption in the past two years of the epidemic, and has declined, the overall demand for peanuts is poor, and the price is difficult to support. Coupled with the impact of foreign imported peanuts exempt from export tax import tax import low cost impact, the overall trend of peanuts is downward. In the short term, the epidemic in Henan has increased the demand for peanut oil, and it has also supported the price of peanuts. After the holiday, it was affected by the high price of U.S. beans on the outer plate, or the price of peanut oil was boosted, which indirectly affected the price of peanuts. During the holidays, the epidemic did not spread on a large scale, so the boost in peanut oil prices was limited. However, because the overall peanut inventory is in a low position, there may be a demand for replenishment after the start of the press and processing plants, which has a role in pushing up the price of peanuts. The overall pattern of peanuts is high supply and weak demand, so the attitude towards peanuts should be bearish. It is recommended to continue to wait and see, and go short at the high.
Arbitrage: Wait and see.