Li Junfeng: To do a good job in energy transformation, we must start from three aspects

　　Zhongxin Jingwei October 21 Title: "Li Junfeng: To do a good job in energy transformation, we must start from three aspects"

　　Author Li Junfeng (Senior Advisor of national climate change strategy research and international cooperation center, executive director of China Energy Research Association)

　　On March 15, 2021, the ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission mentioned that it is necessary to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, focus on improving the utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of the power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body.

　　In the context of the gradual realization of carbon neutrality in the world, the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body has become the general trend of the transformation of the power industry, and it is also the key to achieving the goal of "double carbon". We cannot expect to achieve it overnight, and under the premise of ensuring energy security, we must gradually reduce coal consumption and increase the proportion of new energy.

　　Coal, how much less?

　　Controlling fossil fuels is first and foremost about controlling coal. Therefore, coal consumption not only cannot increase, but also needs to decrease significantly, thus leaving a certain space for the development of natural gas. Because natural gas is relatively small carbon emissions energy, but also more environmentally friendly energy. At the same time, since the decline in oil and gas carbon dioxide emissions is very limited, the total reduction is mainly achieved by reducing coal.

　　How much coal is retained by the time carbon neutrality is achieved depends on both the energy mix at that time and the technical capabilities of carbon sinks, carbon sequestration and carbon capture.

　　As far as the power industry is concerned, although most enterprises have met the emission standards of the national air pollutant control, the emission of atmospheric pollutants in the power industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of the country, which is the single department with the largest carbon emissions, and still needs to spend a lot of effort on pollution reduction.

　　On April 22, 2021, the "Leaders' Climate Summit" mentioned that China has incorporated carbon peaking and carbon neutrality into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction, is formulating a carbon peaking action plan, extensively and deeply carrying out carbon peaking actions, and supporting qualified localities, key industries and key enterprises to take the lead in reaching the peak. China will strictly control coal power projects, strictly control the growth of coal consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and gradually reduce it during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period。 On September 21, at the general debate of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly, China once again stated that it would vigorously support the green and low-carbon development of energy in developing countries and would not build new offshore coal power projects.

　　This is not only a commitment to the international community, but also a specific requirement and promotion of China's domestic work.

　　It should be said that coal reduction is one of the keys to determining the success or failure of China's energy transition. This is not only to control the total amount of energy consumption, but also to ensure that economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards are not affected, so it is necessary to change the policy from controlling the total energy consumption to controlling the total consumption of fossil energy as soon as possible to promote the growth of non-fossil energy consumption.

　　However, it should be noted that the relationship between energy transition and security should be handled well. To build a new power system with new energy as the main body, we must do it first and then break it, and give full play to the role of coal power as the foundation. We estimate that to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, it still needs 2 trillion to 3 trillion kWh of coal-fired or gas-fired power generation, and according to the annual operating hours of 1500-2000, it also needs about 1.5 billion kilowatts of installed thermal power generation capacity. Therefore, for coal-fired gas-fired power generation, the capacity should be increased and the increase should be less during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period; during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the capacity should be increased without increment, and the capacity can be reduced without reduction in the future, in case of unforeseen needs。

　　How to increase new energy?

　　According to the Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development in 2020 issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total energy consumption in 2020 was 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, of which coal consumption accounted for 56.8% of total energy consumption; and the consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power accounted for 24.3% of total energy consumption. Excluding the proportion of natural gas, according to Zhang Jianhua, director of the National Energy Administration, at the press conference of the State Council's new office, China's non-fossil energy accounted for 15.9% of primary energy consumption in 2020.

　　According to the China Energy Research Association, since 2013, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China has increased by an average of 0.7 percentage points per year, of which 90% of non-fossil energy is used for power generation.

　　Under the "double carbon" goal, there is no doubt that coal reduction and the development of the new energy industry are also thriving, but the public only sees the major benefits for the wind power and photovoltaic industries, but does not see its major responsibilities and pressures.

　　At present, the proportion of renewable energy consumption is relatively low, according to our statistics, it is less than 15%. To be carbon neutral by 2060, renewables must reach more than 60% of total energy consumption by 2050. Achieving this goal means that the proportion will increase by at least 1.5 percentage points per year on average over the next 30 years. However, according to the statistics of the China Energy Research Association, in the past few years, the average growth rate of China's renewable energy consumption has been only 0.3-0.8 percentage points, and it is obviously a very great and arduous task to continue to complete the target.

　　Therefore, the renewable energy industry should forge ahead, strive to open up, and focus on how to develop renewable energy faster, healthier and more stable. In this process, it is necessary to coordinate which contradictions and which difficulties need to be resolved, so as to solve these problems well. The development of new energy can not be rushed, this is not a sprint of 100 meters, but a 40-year-long "marathon".

　　How can the new power system "maintain stability"?

　　With the proposal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body has become the consensus of China to achieve the "double carbon" goal. In the future, electric energy will gradually replace other energy sources and become one of the ultimate driving forces for social and economic development. Among them, green electricity, that is, non-fossil energy power generation, will become the mainstream power generation mode in the future.

　　Non-fossil energy power generation is the basic feature of the new power system, although nuclear power, hydropower, biomass power generation are all developing simultaneously, but the proportion is still small. At present, the incremental proportion of non-fossil energy power generation basically comes from wind power and photovoltaic power generation. However, the stability of non-fossil energy power generation such as wind and light is the biggest hidden danger facing the new power system. Therefore, in the case of a steady increase in the total installed capacity of renewable energy generation, how to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the power grid is a major challenge at present.

　　First of all, we must accelerate the pace of transformation of coal power. Most of the coal-fired power generation should be gradually transformed into flexible dispatch and deep peak regulation power stations to provide technical support for a high proportion of renewable energy power generation; it is necessary to give play to the role of power grid enterprises in the hub, platform and sharing of resource allocation, and in accordance with the principle of green dispatch and efficiency priority, to achieve the transformation goal of energy clean, low-carbon and intelligent。

　　Second, strengthen energy supply security and universal energy services. At present, there are still shortcomings in China's universal power service, there is still an imbalance and inadequacy of energy supply, and there are also deficiencies in the construction of energy infrastructure such as China's rural areas, urban-rural interfaces, and power grid terminals. These problems should be properly resolved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and the energy and power supply security issues should be coordinated in urban and rural areas, in the east and west, in developed and underdeveloped areas, so as to achieve universal energy services.

　　Third, a number of carbon-neutral demonstration areas will be deployed in advance. According to the central government's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the respective carbon neutrality targets proposed by local governments, some mature areas can be selected to carry out pilot demonstrations of carbon neutral or zero-carbon power systems. For example, county-level carbon neutrality pilot experiments were carried out in Zhoushan, Zhejiang, Pingtan, Fujian, and Nan'ao, Guangdong, and provincial-level carbon neutrality pilots were carried out in Qinghai, Yunnan, and Hainan, exploring technologies and institutional mechanisms to accumulate experience for national carbon neutrality.

　　Finally, the energy transition process is inseparable from the transformation of the price mechanism. Over the past decade, China has supported the development of the real economy by lowering electricity prices, but the continuous reduction of transmission and distribution prices has caused some problems. Therefore, it is necessary to reform the existing electricity price formation mechanism and increase the willingness of consumer users to pay higher prices for green electricity, so as to form a new fashion of green and low-carbon life. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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