Source: Iridium Nebula (IRG-ROAD)
Author: Cao Jie
The so-called river does not turn back, but the river grows.
The trend of commercial real estate changes every year, yesterday's hot air outlet may soon become today's cold topic, and today's small flames will inadvertently appear in the wilderness. But from beginning to end, the charm of business lies in the ever-changing exploration of serving people and making life better.
Therefore, from the beginning of the year to make some prospects for the trend, we can find a clearer way forward in the complex and intertwined urban context. In this issue, we will analyze the commercial real estate trends in 2022 from different dimensions, in order to throw bricks and stones and let readers see a more three-dimensional 2022.
01
Incremental asset-light enhancement
Increased requirements for commercial operations
Looking back at the trend from the end of last year to the beginning of the year, the "de-real estate" caused by the general environment has been very obvious. Especially for many housing enterprises in transition, the moment is a good opportunity to accelerate the transformation of asset-light.
In the past 2021, the rapid expansion of asset-light projects of Wanda, Xincheng, Xingsheng, Hengtai and other enterprises has received high market attention, and this year, through the separation of light and heavy, the concentration of resources to accelerate the layout of light asset projects, the number of enterprises entering the market may be more, especially in the newly opened shopping malls throughout this year, the incremental proportion of light assets has increased significantly.
°Source: Sohu
From the current approach to asset-light commercial real estate, it generally includes cooperation with financial institutions and financial investment, pure management output, leasing and sale-leaseback, and asset-light in the form of fund or REITs exit. Either form means that the incremental improvement of asset-light projects will promote higher requirements for professional operations in commercial real estate, and more professional operators may become the choice of more enterprises to enhance the rental return and influence of projects.
02
The metacosm gradually became concrete
Spawned more virtual reality fusion gameplay
2021 is known to many as the first year of the meta-universe, a concept first mentioned in Neil Stephenson's 1992 science fiction novel Avalanche, opening up a new dimension for space scene exploration. Industry insiders believe that the metaverse is more of a virtual world that uses scientific and technological means to link and create, map and interact with the real world, and has a digital living space with a new social system.
In fact, this concept coincides with the combination of virtual and reality scenes that are being explored in many physical spaces at present, so the exploration of meta-universe scenes, meta-universe + commercial formats and so on has gradually emerged, and behind them, the continuous influx of capital has also promoted the continuous landing of this concept in commercial space to a certain extent.
° Image source: RNDR rendering network
From the trend point of view, the retail industry, especially represented by clothing and beauty retail, there will be more scenes such as try-on and make-up based on the concept of meta-universe, helping consumers match products suitable for themselves through 3D avatars; experiential formats will emerge more art curation, performing arts activities and related game entertainment formats that integrate meta-universes, such as the current popular shopping mall digital collection art exhibition, virtual reality games, etc., they can break the physical space restrictions and bring consumers a multi-dimensional immersive experience.
In addition to the above phenomenon of increasing frequency, there will be more and more gameplay based on meta-universe exploration in the future, and you will never know which project will become a hit with what new gameplay, which may be the business expectation.
03
The snow holiday market is in the spotlight
The ice and snow industry track continues to heat up
The Beijing Winter Olympics will keep the popularity of ice and snow sports rising. On the one hand, the commercial market outdoor ice and snow sports retail brands to accelerate the expansion, and the expansion of wild luxury camping brands complement each other, becoming a new category leading the changes in the public lifestyle; on the other hand, the ice and snow sports experience format is developing rapidly, and its track will also be more and more subdivided, indoor and outdoor, ice and snow formats, or ice and snow sports + class of composite formats, will be the field of capital entry in the future for a period of time.
°Source: Guangzhou Sunac Snow World
The support of policies and the synergy effect of sports events have made the ice and snow sports market continue to rise. According to the survey data of Ai Media Consulting, the overall scale of China's ice and snow sports industry has maintained a stable growth trend. In 2021, the market size of China's ice and snow sports industry will be 59.49 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 71.39 billion yuan in 2022.
It is worth mentioning that the participants in ice and snow sports are mainly young people with high paying ability. It can also be roughly seen that the ice and snow holiday market will not cool down with the end of the Winter Olympics, and will even become the key track of micro-vacation. Enterprises that have laid out ice and snow cultural tourism in advance, such as Vanke, Wanda, Sunac, Fosun Travel and Culture, etc., may receive eye-catching report cards.
04
Chinese dining or catching the tide
The catering layout continues to shuffle
In the hot search topics of the Winter Olympics, almost half of them are related to Chinese catering and snacks. In fact, this is one of the portrayals of the trend of today's catering industry.
Previously, the Chinese fast food chain brand Rural Ji has submitted a Hong Kong stock IPO prospectus; LaoXiang Chicken has signed a listing counseling agreement with a securities company and is sprinting to the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange; Jia Guolong, the founder of Xibei Restaurant, has said that Xibei has determined to raise funds and enter the capital market. In the near future, Yang Guofu Spicy Hot is about to submit a prospectus on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, or become the "first hot hot stock" The news has also spread boiling...
° Source: See watermark
At the same time as the outbreak of the Chinese catering listing tide, it also means that the catering category will become more "lively", and the categories with "ten thousand store genes" such as digitalization, standardization, and clear single-store model will accelerate the expansion of stores in shopping malls, and the main stores of shopping mall catering will continue to shuffle, and with the blessing of capital, the model of Chinese catering + retail may become popular.
05
Tide play art theme space becomes popular
Benefits will be tested by the market
In the past two years, from the popularity of blind boxes to the integration of handmade, tide play, and art works, in addition to the emergence of some fashion play retail brands, two-dimensional and three-pit cultural categories, but also let the commercial market have a high degree of attention to such theme space. On the one hand, it can create a more circled scene, on the other hand, the aggregation effect of similar brands can activate traffic to a greater extent.
For example, Chongqing Yubei Wuyue Plaza, which opened last year to position the country's first trend art park, such as Shenzhen Vientiane Tiandi, which adjusted the area to the "trend experimental field" of the tide play art gathering area after the withdrawal of Eslite Life Shenzhen, or Shenzhen Zhongzhou Bay C Future City, which has revealed a strong trend play art temperament before it opened...
°Source: Chongqing Yubei Wuyue Plaza
The reason behind this is not difficult to find that The Z generation has gradually become the main consumer force of offline commercial space, as a generation of material abundance, they have a higher consumption desire for spiritual pleasures such as tide play and art, and they also have a more unique understanding of IP and brand. On the other hand, with the development of the tide play market, the boundaries between blind boxes, handmade, etc. and works of art are gradually blurred, and it is easier for tide play art theme spaces or theme shopping malls to attract young purchasing power through scene creation.
However, with the increasing layout of such spaces in shopping malls, it will take time to verify whether they can truly achieve the expected conversion while attracting consumers to shop immersively.
06
Further integration of commercial property
Commercial space feature attribute overlay
In addition to being the third consumption space for public leisure, commercial space may play a more important role in the pursuit of health, multi-dimensional socialization and even business in the future, which is also a new thinking direction after the shopping mall brand format falls into the dilemma of homogenization.
°Source: Shenye Shangcheng
Therefore, the trend of commercial and industrial integration will become more and more prominent in shopping malls. Especially in today's shopping center space utilization, the scene is more and more diverse, it is easier to host various events, performing arts, public welfare activities, etc. in the commercial space, so the introduction of diversified industries and spaces will be a new trend for shopping malls to enhance the labeling attributes.
In addition, with the continuous improvement of people's attention to health, the medical beauty industry and pet industry may also usher in a new round of integration with shopping malls.
07
The paid membership system of shopping malls has gradually matured
Deepening the exploration of customized rights and interests
Paid membership is not a new thing for the commercial market, but for most shopping malls, the implementation of paid membership is still in a very mature stage.
After experiencing the popularity of warehousing membership stores in the past year, people have a new understanding of paid membership, especially a more specific feeling for the differentiated experience brought by the rights and interests of members, which is undoubtedly a more favorable background for shopping malls to implement the paid membership system.
°Source: Shenzhen Futian COCO Park
In fact, at present, many shopping malls on the market have launched a paid membership system, especially for high-end shopping malls, providing customized services for high-end members through the membership operation of shopping malls, which can activate private domain traffic for continuous repurchase, and also be able to "go out of the circle" through circle marketing.
08
The head effect of the online mall is gradually emerging
Online and offline goods coexist for a long time
It has been more than two years since the epidemic swept through in late 2019. At the time of the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, domestic physical businesses were pressed the pause button, and many shopping malls used online malls, online communities and online live broadcasts to carry goods.
°Source: CapitaStar Mall
With the gradual recovery of the consumer environment, the sales of offline commercial space have warmed up, and many offline commercial spaces have slowed down or even suspended their operations for online malls. Some companies have chosen to adhere to the operating model that combines digital retail and offline.
From the current point of view, shopping mall online shopping malls are gradually forming a head effect, continuous operation and can form an effective linkage with the offline online mall in the continuous operation of the accumulation of sufficient fans, sales performance is gradually bright. It is worth mentioning that for shopping mall online malls, in addition to price advantages, providing differentiated products will be an important means to enhance consumer stickiness. Therefore, the release of limited products through online shopping malls, limited peripherals of shopping malls, etc. will also help sales, and form a good complement with offline.
09
Humanized space is increasingly "rolled in"
Humanization is also a cliché of the commercial space, after all, the service experience is one of the most obvious advantages of physical commerce over online channels. On the one hand, the humanization of shopping malls is reflected in the hardware configuration, and on the other hand, it is reflected in soft services. The reason why humanized space has become one of the new trends in 2022 is that many commercial spaces are currently committed to touching consumer emotions through scenes, and details are undoubtedly the key to poking hearts.
° Indian Center Outdoor Workers Love Station / Iridium Nebula Business Photo
For example, when the concept of pet friendliness has become the standard of most shopping malls, in addition to providing convenient shopping equipment for pets, shopping centers can also strengthen the management of pet safety and health, and fully consider the feelings of various groups of people; for example, in the context of the state's promotion of three children, the mother and baby room of the shopping center is more fully planned; for example, considering the family customer group, the assistance of the shopping mall for lost children to find; or considering that there are also takeaway brothers, sanitation workers, etc. around the commercial space, and the establishment of corresponding personnel rest space ......
These humanized little details are happening in more and more shopping malls, and the hopeful 2022 will undoubtedly be a more warm year for shopping malls.
10
Brand stores ushered in the era of intensive cultivation of scenes
The first store economy of iron strikes, the first store of flowing water. Under the continuous "inner volume" of resource allocation, brand homogenization is an inevitable problem for shopping malls, so the introduction of first stores is no longer as easy as ever.
However, judging from some recent explosive stores, it may not be the first such gimmick to bring its own traffic, but a scene-based store tailored by the brand based on the mall. This means that one store and one side may no longer be a feature of its own flaunting for brands, but is becoming a prerequisite for entering a shopping mall.
Therefore, in the future, the concept of the first differentiated store will be more interesting than the simple first store, and people's attention and desire to punch will always be affected by the scene. Therefore, for the brand side, how to form a recognizable strong IP in the process of expansion, while intensively cultivating the scene, will become a new proposition.
Time and place: May 18-19 / Poly World Trade Center Expo Center, Guangzhou