Foreword: Yesterday there were reports that Tesla and Australian lithium mines signed a supply order, some villagers asked what impact this has on the domestic lithium ore industry, I hope I can sort it out, arrange!
This table of contents
1. Event background
2. Get to know lithium in salt lakes
3. Industry status
4. Supply analysis
5. Industry prospects
6. Technical difficulties
7. Development trend
8. Relevant listed companies
9. Exclusive core tips
First, the background of the event
Recently, Tesla signed a large order for lithium ore procurement with Australian lithium miners, purchasing 100,000 dry metric tons of spodumene concentrate in the first year. Liontown will supply lithium ore from its Kathleen Valley lithium mine project in Western Australia, which is expected to begin commercial production in 2025. Supplies to Tesla will account for about a third of the project's annual capacity.
Some brokers pointed out that the disturbance in Australian lithium ore production continued, the output in the fourth quarter fell month-on-month, and the price of lithium ore is expected to exceed 3,000 US dollars / ton in the first half of 2022.
Because the downstream demand for new energy has been increasing, lithium ore and rare earths have always been in a state of short supply, and as scarce resources, they have risen to the status of strategic resources, which is no wonder Tesla has preemptively started.
For China, lithium ore is also a scarce resource, and the grade is not high, so the focus falls on the lithium extraction of salt lakes. After all, the lithium resources of Qinghai Lake are very rich, which is why as long as the global lithium resources have a wind and grass, the domestic concept of lithium extraction in salt lakes always attracts market attention.
Second, understand the salt lake lithium extraction
Salt lakes are one of the important types of lakes in the world, with a salt content of more than 50g/L, which is a natural resource that combines inorganic salts, organic matter and biological synthesis, and is a common sediment product of multi-layered circles, which only occurs in specific natural and geological environments. Salt lakes with mining value are usually "ancient salt deposits", with solid-liquid mixed, large reserves, wide area, high grade characteristics, through long-term precipitation and rich in potassium, magnesium, lithium, boron, bromine, iodine, cesium, rubidium and other salt minerals, it should be noted that not all salt lakes can extract lithium minerals. The so-called lithium extraction in salt lakes is to extract the lithium resources in salt lakes with mining value through technical means.
Third, the current situation of the industry
1. The global distribution of salt lakes is concentrated in the "Lithium Triangle" of South America and the Mainland Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
The formation and distribution characteristics of brine-type salt lakes are closely related to geological formations and climatic zone types, generally formed in closed catchment basins under dry and low-rainy climates, and the surrounding Cenozoic volcanic activities are frequent, which can provide the main source of materials for the formation of lithium resources in salt lakes. Such formation conditions also determine that the global salt lakes are mainly distributed in the temperate arid climate zone of 30-40 degrees north latitude and the tropical arid zone of 20-30 degrees south latitude, and the altitude is generally higher. By country, it is mainly distributed in the "lithium triangle" in South America (Bolivia, Chile and Argentina) and the Mainland Tibetan Plateau.
2. The construction period of the salt lake lithium green space project is long
Generally speaking, the salt lake lithium extraction project from "exploration to full production" takes about ten years, the global salt lake lithium extraction "green space project" construction cycle is generally about 24 months, but it takes 1 to 2 years or even longer to achieve production, and the efficiency of "brownfield capacity expansion" varies according to the miner and the specific situation. For example, Orocobre's Olaroz project in Argentina began exploration in 2008 and was first put into production in 2015, which lasted a total of 8 years; after the commissioning, it has entered a long commissioning period due to equipment commissioning, salt pan design optimization, brine inventory decline and brine concentration optimization.
3. The cash cost of lithium extraction in salt lakes is low, and the capital expenditure is large
1) Low cash cost of lithium extraction in salt lakes
The direct production cost of the salt lake lithium extraction project is significantly lower than that of the mining project, and the higher the lithium concentration in the salt lake, the lower the general cash cost. Atacama due to excellent resource endowments, the direct cost per ton related to the operation ranks at the leftmost end of the salt lake cost curve, according to the lithium business operation of ALB and SQM, its direct production cost per ton of lithium carbonate in 2020 (excluding resource tax) is about 1692, 2401$/t, respectively, because some products of the SQM lithium business are lithium hydroxide, and its cost per ton is slightly higher than that of ALB.
2) Salt Lake capital expenditure is larger
If the capital expenditure of Salt Lake is large, if it is mainly in the form of debt, the financial expense will increase the full cost, and the cost advantage may be affected. Due to the large capital expenditure of the salt lake lithium extraction project, although the higher depreciation and amortization does not affect the subsequent cash flow, if the proportion of debt financing from the source of construction funds is higher, the financial burden is heavier than that of the lithium mine, so the financing method of the salt lake project is also one of the variables that will affect the anti-risk ability between resources in the future.
Fourth, supply analysis
1. China's salt lake lithium extraction long-term to the planned production capacity of 300,000 tons
After years of development, China's salt lake lithium extraction industry has built a lithium extraction capacity of more than 100,000 tons, mainly distributed in Qinghai. At present, the total production capacity of projects with clear expansion plans is about 100,000 tons, and if the long-term planning projects of enterprises are considered, the scale of lithium extraction capacity in China's salt lakes is expected to reach 300,000 tons. With reference to the future demand growth of the lithium industry, the future lithium production capacity of China's salt lakes is expected to account for more than 20% of the global lithium supply, becoming an important source of global lithium supply.
2. At this stage, the expansion of lithium extraction capacity in salt lakes is still a barrier in Shangcun
1) The approval of mining warrants is difficult and takes a long time
Different from the construction of lithium salt processing plants in ore lithium extraction, lithium extraction in salt lakes is mostly an integrated production line of "resource + transformation", and enterprises need to have mining rights corresponding to salt lake projects before investing in lithium production capacity, and the approval of mining warrants is difficult and long, which restricts the investment and construction of lithium production capacity of enterprises. In addition, mining warrants generally limit the resource consumption and capacity scale of enterprises, and enterprises need to re-apply for mining licenses if they want to expand production, which seriously affects the expansion speed of salt lake lithium extraction enterprises.
2) Some enterprises are facing the problem of changes in lithium extraction technology routes and technical transformation of production lines
Some of the early construction of salt lake lithium production lines due to the existence of equipment corrosion and environmental pollution in the production process of the general production discontinuity, low capacity utilization, forced to stop production and other phenomena, the current production line rectification or technical route switching, can not quickly expand production.
3) The initial construction cost of lithium extraction in salt lakes is too high
Most of the lithium production lines in salt lakes are located in remote areas, and the initial investment in civil engineering and public auxiliary facilities of the production line is high, which has caused obvious pressure on the enthusiasm of enterprises to put into production.
3. China's dominant lithium lake lithium resources have not been effectively converted into production
Although China's Qinghai and Tibet regions have rich reserves of lithium resources, from a historical point of view, domestic lithium supply mainly depends on overseas imports, and domestic salt lakes can only exist as a small amount of supplementary supply. On the one hand, the above phenomenon is caused by the fact that the domestic salt lake resource endowment is not as good as the South American salt lake, the lithium extraction is difficult, the product quality is slightly poor, and it has not been applied to the downstream battery materials on a large scale; on the other hand, the domestic academic community and the industry have developed a variety of lithium extraction processes in the process of exploring the high magnesium lithium than the salt lake lithium extraction technology, in the actual production and operation process, some of the process stability is not good, and the long-term production standard cannot be achieved, which affects the industrialization process of lithium extraction in China's salt lake.
Fifth, the industry prospects
1. The accumulation of technology and capital will bring about an accelerated release of lithium in salt lakes around the world
In terms of lithium resource development, the American Potash Fertilizer Company has produced lithium by-products using low-concentration brine; since then, FooteMinerals has launched the commercial mining of Silver Peak Salt Lake in Nevada, usa, which is the world's earliest salt lake project to take lithium as the main product; since the rapid introduction of new energy vehicles since 2013 to 2015, salt lake lithium resources have begun to become the focus of the mining circle as a key battery metal.
In 2021, the new supply of global lithium resources from Chile SQM, domestic Lanke Lithium, etc., by 2022 the global ore lithium extraction capacity will begin to respond to the outbreak of demand, it is expected that the global lithium resources production will increase from 540,000 tons to 1.17 million tons of LCE in 2021-2025, of which the supply of lithium extraction in salt lakes will increase from 230,000 tons of LCE in 2021 to 530,000 tons of LCE in 2025, accounting for a slight increase from 42.8% to 45%.
Looking forward to the future, the technological progress of lithium extraction in salt lakes (quantitative change to qualitative change), coupled with continuous large-scale capital investment, brings the upward inflection point of the proportion of lithium extraction in the global lithium resource supply of salt lake extraction is only a matter of time, and its core lies in the industrialization of efficient salt lake lithium extraction technology. At the same time, the development of global sub-optimal salt lake resources is also forcing the commercialization of innovative lithium extraction technology.
2. China's salt lake brine has huge prospects for the development of lithium resources
The potential resources of domestic lithium brine are 92.5 million tons (in terms of lithium chloride), and the resource identification rate is only 19.0%; the potential resources of domestic hard rock lithium ore are 8.78 million tons (in terms of spodumene), and the resource identification rate is only 25.51%, and the prospect of increasing reserves is huge.
1) Qinghai salt lake lithium extraction
The construction of lithium extraction in Qinghai Salt Lake has completed the production capacity introduction, technology exploration and process running-in stage from 0 to 1, and entered a period of rapid development from 1 to N. Qinghai's salt lake brine generally belongs to the type of high magnesium-lithium ratio, so it is difficult to replicate the classic precipitation process in South America, precisely because it does not have the world's best brine endowment, Qinghai salt lake lithium extraction technology is at the forefront of the world, and has the opportunity to be commercialized. In addition, although Qinghai Salt Lake is located in high altitude and alpine areas, the altitude is relatively ideal, the infrastructure conditions such as roads, electricity, and natural gas are relatively complete, and a mature sodium and potassium salt field system has been built in the early stage, so adding and expanding lithium extraction devices can enjoy multi-faceted synergies.
2) Lithium extraction from salt lakes in Tibet
Tibet salt lake minerals are rich in lithium, boron, potassium, rubidium, cesium resources, is the plateau "silent treasure", Tibet salt lake about 500, an area of more than 8225 square kilometers. In recent years, thanks to the improvement of road facilities and the maturity and innovation of the lithium extraction process in the salt lake in Qinghai (technology spillover), the development of lithium-rich salt lakes in Tibet has ushered in a new opportunity, although it is too early to fully increase the volume, but benchmark projects such as Zabuye are expected to make positive progress.
3. Under the wave of new energy, the demand for lithium resources will increase rapidly
In 2020, the total global demand for lithium resources will be 367,800 tons (in terms of LCE), of which 40% will be used for power battery production; according to forecasts, the global new energy vehicle production capacity will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 45% from 2020 to 2025. By 2025, the power battery may become the first downstream application of lithium resources, which is the largest source of power for the growth of lithium resource demand in the future.
Sixth, technical difficulties
Compared with the salt lakes in South America, the lithium ion content in the brine of the salt lakes in Qinghai, China is low, and the magnesium-lithium ratio is significantly higher, which makes it difficult to separate the salt lakes in Qinghai Salt Lake when using the mature salt pan concentration and precipitation method in South America, the lithium loss rate is high, and the development cost is high. High magnesium lithium than salt lake lithium extraction is a worldwide problem in the comprehensive utilization of salt lake resources, and it is also the core crux restricting the development of China's salt lake lithium extraction industry.
For the characteristics of high magnesium-lithium ratio of brine in Qinghai salt lake, Chinese enterprises have developed a variety of lithium extraction technology routes after years of exploration, from the comparison of various methods, "adsorption + membrane" integration scheme has the strongest applicability, is being promoted in many enterprises in Qinghai, the lithium extraction effect of the program and the actual operation effect is the best, the future is expected to become the mainstream lithium extraction technology route of the salt lake project in Qinghai.
Seventh, the development trend
1. The original halogen lithium extraction is the main direction of exploration in the future
From the perspective of resource optimization, the lithium extraction process should be as close as possible to the front end, and "original halogen lithium extraction" has become the main exploration direction of salt lakes at home and abroad. Lithium extraction in mainland salt lakes is currently mainly extracted from old halogen, which will bring two problems, one is that the scale of lithium salt is bound to be subject to the scale of potash production, and the other is that the entrainment loss and production cycle of lithium in the sun process will increase with the increase of the number of graded layers in the salt pan. To solve this problem, it is necessary to put the lithium extraction process in front, and even achieve the "original halogen lithium extraction". Under the trend of new energy transformation, the value of lithium resources will gradually enlarge in the future, and the pre-production of lithium extraction process will inevitably be one of the main process optimization directions in the future.
2. Lithium extraction production in salt lakes will develop towards greening
In view of the "green intention" of the development of the new energy automobile industry, reducing the environmental footprint has begun to become an important consideration in the development of lithium resources. At present, overseas head producers are developing in the direction of greening: SQM is committed to increasing the recovery rate, and will achieve a substantial expansion of capacity under the premise of large-scale reduction of land freshwater consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the future; Livent plans to move to a more thorough DLE, and strive to gradually retire all salt pans in the future and continue to reduce the fresh water consumption of the adsorption plant.
8. Summary and related listed companies
Summary: According to the previous analysis of the supply of lithium in the salt lake, I believe that we can also see that the possibility of rapid expansion of lithium in the salt lake is very low in the short term, and the high demand for downstream power batteries is superimposed, and the lithium extraction in the salt lake may be in short supply, which may also be the basis for the rise in the price of lithium in the salt lake.
Relevant listed companies
PS: Although the industrial chain is very fine, the relevant stocks are listed, but it is not said that it is the stock with the highest degree of matching, and the stock with high matching degree is inconvenient to display on the platform because of the rule relationship, and it can be requested by leaving a message.
Nine, exclusive core tips
To reiterate, even if it is the outlet, we should pay more attention to the business matching degree of the relevant stocks, recently I found that the business matching degree is very critical, often some of the correlation is not strong, even if the track is on the outlet, the performance is much worse, so we pay attention to the specific content of the "individual stock business matching degree" that has been made into an atlas above.
The above is the direction and idea of my own research, that is, to share with you.
I do not recommend any individual stocks, do not accept members, no QQ group, no WeChat group, and never have an interest relationship with anyone, all information is only for their own learning and use, not as a basis for trading, buyers are at their own risk, sellers are also responsible.
The old man does not seek fame or profit, but asks the villagers to praise after reading it, pay attention to it, if you can leave a statement to express a better attitude, give people roses, have incense in your hands, if there is something unsatisfactory, please pat it.