Last year, when I encouraged everyone to set up warehouses for banking, insurance and infrastructure, many netizens were still hesitant.
This is completely understandable, because the logic may not have been understood at the time, and it was also tempted by the hot sectors of medicine and new energy.
Recently, looking at the trend of these three sectors rising all the way and not looking back, netizens have made up their minds to open positions. But just ready to start, and hesitated, private message asked me: Now that banks and infrastructure have risen so much, can you still open a position? Will it chase high?
I couldn't help but laugh when I heard it. This fall is not a rise, so entangled, no wonder it is always losing money.
Since there are more friends who ask this question, I will explain this matter thoroughly today. Let's take a look at the recent gains in these three sectors!
First, how much has it risen?
After the start of the year, banks rose more than 6.5 percent.
Insurance rose 1 percent.
Infrastructure is even more aggressive, up 12 percent from the bottom last year and up another 6 percent this year, a total of 18 percent.
Which one do you think you buy now is called chasing high? Is it infrastructure?
So if I tell you that infrastructure is still up 40% and insurance is only up 30%, which do you think is to buy now?
In the final analysis, everyone does not dare to buy when they fall, and they dare not buy when they rise, because they have no value in their hearts.
If everyone is always like this, after you buy it, your heart will definitely not be stable. What happens if you are not grounded?
Earn 10% and want to run, can't hold! After selling, I saw that it was still rising, and I chased in with a heavy position, which would really be chasing high.
Or a slight drop of 5% and panic, to scold the mother! Can't help but cut the meat, the stock price will rise up, angry at you!
That's why I let all my friends read my previous article patiently and carefully before buying, if you don't understand the logic, you will definitely not be able to hold it!
In the first two years, those friends who bought the popular sector, how many of them were heavy positions, eating the increase from the beginning to the end? Absolutely not many!
Although I didn't buy these hot spots, several of the indices in my hand have been obtained since the beginning of 2019 and have not been cleared. In particular, the GEM is the beginning of the fixed investment in 2018, and it has been getting now! Only position adjustments have been made, and there are still positions left until now.
Why don't I open the position? There is value in the heart! So I don't panic about the ups and downs!
Next, let's see where the value of these three plates is?
Second, there is value in the heart, and the shareholding is not panicked!
Banks' net assets grow by about 10% per year, and if the valuation (PB) is kept unchanged, the stock price will have to rise by about 10% per year.
But from 2019.12.31 to 2021.12.31, theoretically there will be 2 increases, which add up to about 20%.
And what about the actual situation? Banks actually fell 0.3%.
It has been 3 years since 2019, so there should be a cumulative increase of 30% waiting to be released. And last year,the bank's performance exceeded expectations.
Let's be conservative and there should be 20% upside, let's look at the previous bank pull-ups, none of which is less than 20%. It usually reaches 30%. See figure below.
So now this bit of a rise, you tell me this is called chasing high, isn't that funny?
What is chasing high? Valuations are floating in the sky, and after they are out of fundamentals, they are called chasing high! The bank is still walking on the ground!
Many netizens are worried that if they buy it now, they will fall down in two days, is it not cost-effective?
So what if in two days it not only does not fall, but also rises?
So I have always told everyone that three months to open a position, do not choose the time, you only need to do the time dispersion when opening a position, the cost will be evenly amortized.
Otherwise, in your hesitation, when the position is still very light, the index will never look back. Regret dying for you.
What is batch opening? Refer to the way of fixed casting.
This is called strategy, and strategy is always much more reliable than your judgment. It doesn't guarantee that you'll make the most money every time, but it does guarantee that you'll make a lot of money over the long term.
But if it is true that in the process of opening your position, the index will rise, and it is time to take profit and sell, what to do?
No way, who made you hesitate last year? This time to earn less, it doesn't matter at all, learn the knowledge and ideas, and make money next time. First of all, we must do the right strategy and principles, otherwise, destroy the strategy and principle at will, and there will always be a blood loss in the future!
I have analyzed it in previous articles, and it is almost synchronized with the rise and fall of banks, and it is more elastic, that is, it is more violent when it rises, and it falls deeper when it falls. See figure below.
This time, the valuation of insurance is pressed down lower than that of banks, so the elasticity may be even greater. Notice that I'm talking only about probability.
The value analysis of infrastructure involves the analysis of individual stocks, so I will not introduce it here. But even if it's up 18 percent now, it still hasn't reached its value line. When it's time to take profit, I will introduce it in the monthly configuration combination rebalancing.
Of course, it is understandable that everyone wants to get a lower cost of opening a position, so in the future, don't always wait until it rises before thinking about buying, calculate the value in your heart, and keep buying when you are on the left side, you will not be entangled.
Here's a way to make it cheaper to open a position.
Third, how to scientifically reduce the cost of opening a position?
This method requires you to fully understand the logic of these three plates, and if you do not understand the logic at all, it is best not to buy it.
If you only understand the banking sector, then only buy banks so that you can hold it.
If you fully understand these three sectors, then you can use the following method to reduce the cost of opening a position.
- Step 1: Divide your total funds in these three sectors into 12 shares;
- Step 2: When opening a position every week, see which sector has the least increase from the bottom;
- The third step is to buy the sector with the smallest gain;
- The fourth step is to continue to hold it after buying if you have not yet reached the take profit condition, until I inform that you can take profit, and then sell according to the strategy.
Note: If you are a fixed investment sector, this method is not applicable. If you set a bet on the bank, then stick to the bet until the annualized 20% take profit to sell! Don't get confused.
4. Summary
Many friends are always entangled when opening positions, and the fundamental reason is that there is no value in their hearts! So panic every time!
This kind of leek thinking will make you always make a little money and want to run, and when you are set, you always want to return to the cost, and the result is deeply set!
So you know why so many people always make small money when they make money, and lose big money when they lose money.
The stock market is unpredictable in the short term, so when the bottom is opened, it borrows the strategy of fixed investment, does not have to choose the time, and can buy in batches according to the rhythm, and finally can spread the total cost evenly.
As a value investor, you must first calculate the value in the future, and then gradually open a position when the left side is undervalued, don't think about buying when the stock price is ready to move. Buy at this time, you will either be entangled, or the position is still very light when it is pulled up, and the cost of opening a position is higher!
The tip is voluntary, 1 penny is silent support, haha!
Friends who like my article are welcome to come to my public account of the same name: Rui Zhi Rui Jian!
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