Independent Scarce Penetration
In the short term, the market is a voting machine
In the long run, the market is weighing machines
Author: Hao Keke
EDIT: Mountains
Wind product: Zhang Fan
Source: Rhodium Finance - Rhodium Finance Research Institute
On February 9, the three major A-share indexes collectively closed higher. On February 8 and 10, the Shanghai index rose, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index fell, highlighting the divergence.
In fact, since the beginning of 2022, the three major stock indexes have all pulled back, and the Shanghai index has fallen by about 5% year-to-date, and the Shenzhen component index and the ChiNext board have fallen by 9% and 13%.
In the face of the volatile market, many small scattered risk aversion operations are obvious, and a number of head public funds have taken a shot to protect the disk.
According to incomplete statistics, from January 26 to 27 alone, 17 public funds announced relevant information, and the amount of self-purchase exceeded 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, it also includes the CEIBS Fund.
01
Five funds lost quarterly
"A sister who fell out"?
LAOCAI
On January 26, CEIBS Fund announced that CEIBS Fund Management Co., Ltd. subscribed for a total of 50 million yuan of CEIBS Healthcare Hybrid Securities Investment Fund and CEIBS Medical Innovation Equity Securities Investment Fund within 30 trading days, and held them for more than three years; during the relevant time, fund manager Gülen subscribed for a total of 2 million yuan for the two funds.
Real gold protective plate, respectable praise. However, there are also some basic people who complain that the subscription amount is too small, and the sincerity is not enough compared with the scale of tens of billions of the two funds.
There is no lack of bias in emotions, but it is not entirely demanding. Combing through recent public opinion, Gülen and its managed funds are in the spotlight.
On February 10, a rumor said that large insurance funds and other funds redeemed Gülen's fund share of 40 billion. Because of its high-level layout, many new energy varieties such as the Ningde era.
Subsequently, the CEIBS fund debunked rumors that the "large redemption" was false news.
A false alarm, indeed, is a blessing. However, Gülen may not be more relaxed on the day: the first heavy stock WuXi AppTec fell another 7.41%. The reason why it is used again is because it just experienced a drop stop on February 8. On the same day, Gülen's 4 products lost 840 million yuan a day, and the 8 products of the Ceibus Fund lost a total of 860 million yuan.
According to the 2021 quarterly report released by Gülen's funds. By the end of 2021, Gülen's five fund products have a management scale of 110.339 billion yuan, surpassing the 101.936 billion yuan managed by Zhang Kun and becoming the largest active equity fund manager with the largest management scale. Among them, CEIBS Healthcare is the main contributor, with a management scale of 77.505 billion yuan.
Among the "first sisters" of public funds, the scenery is unique. However, the embarrassing thing is that compared with the enthusiastic trust of investors, the performance of the top 100 billion is not glamorous. According to the 2021 four-quarter report, Gülen's five managed funds all lost money, with a total loss of 13.930 billion yuan in single-quarter profits.
Taking the representative work CEIBS Healthcare as an example, the growth rate of Class A net worth in the fourth quarter was -16.14%, and the benchmark yield of performance comparison in the same period was -2.84%; the growth rate of Class C net value was -16.29%, and the benchmark yield of performance comparison in the same period was -2.84%.
CEIBS Medical Innovation (Class A) fell more than 16.14%, CEIBS New Starting Point (Class A) fell 3.85%, CEIBS Alpha Hybrid (Class A) fell 4.56%, and CEIBS Research Select Hybrid (Class A) fell more than 1.32%.
Judging from the positions reported in the fourth quarter, the top ten heavy stocks are not satisfactory, and Aier Ophthalmology and Katazai have fallen by about 20% so far in the year. Kai Lai Ying and Kang Longhua fell by nearly 40%.
The size of the fund rose twice and fell three times, but all 5 of them showed a net retracement. The net value of the A and C shares of CEIBS Healthcare and CEIBS Medical Innovation fell by 16%, and the other three retraced slightly. For the full year, the 2021 CEIBS Healthcare Hybrid Fund yielded -6.55%; the CEIBS Healthcare Innovation Equity Fund was -7.90%.
Based on this, some public opinion complained that Gülen was "a sister who fell out".
Don't blame the demanding, looking at the industry, ICBC Credit Suisse Zhao Bei, who is also known as the "goddess of medicine", has a total of 5 products under management by the end of 2021, with a total scale of 32.279 billion yuan.
Although the scale is not large, the products under management also retraced in the fourth quarter of 2021, but the annual performance is relatively more stable. Representative ICBC Credit Suisse Frontier Medical, the growth rate of the net value of Class A and C in 2021 is more than 11%, compared with the loss-making CEIBS Medical Health, the growth rate is 18%.
As of the end of 2021, Zhao Bei's ICBC Credit Suisse Frontier Medical A's three-year and five-year returns were 276.35% and 279.02%, respectively, exceeding Gülen's CEIBS Healthcare A by 50 and 13 percentage points.
As the saying goes, there are many gods in the bull market and many hands in the bear market. "The family has money to spend, celebrant medical treatment to find Gülen", "I thought it was the bottom, I didn't expect to see the bottom"...
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand whether the above self-purchase is not bought. In the face of tens of billions of management cards, whether it is 2 million yuan or 50 million, is there some water and salary? Moreover, the two funds have a scale of 90 billion yuan, and the annual management fee is often hundreds of millions of yuan.
02
What is the "thunder" of heavy stocks?
Generation after generation of gods.
Behind the saying, there is a law: the ever-changing stock market has no stock god, and it is difficult for investors to step on the wind for a long time.
Focusing on 2021, the rise of small and medium-cap stocks and the rapid rotation of the sector have caused the performance of many star fund managers who invest in white horse blue-chip stocks to decline collectively. Glen, Liu Yanchun, Zhang Kun and other top streams walked down the altar or based on this.
According to Oriental Wealth Choice data, since the beginning of 2021, the full index of pharmaceuticals has fallen by nearly 20%, such as from the high point of February 2021, the correction is nearly 30%.
Plate shocks, for investors who have long bet on a single industry, it is inevitable to experience "chasing up" and "killing down".
In terms of subdivision, Gülen's five funds are: CEIBS Mingrui New Starting Point, CEIBS Healthcare Hybrid, CEIBS Medical Innovation Stocks, CEIBS Alpha Hybrid, and CEIBS Research SelectEd Hybrid. According to the field, it is divided into two types, one focuses on the medical and health field, such as Sino-European medical health, China-Europe medical hybrid; the other is biased towards technology, consumption, manufacturing, such as the new starting point of Sino-European Mingrui focusing on science and technology.
For its unsatisfactory performance, combing public opinion is mainly summarized as three reasons: First, after experiencing the sharp rise in the epidemic market in 2020, the overall correction of the pharmaceutical sector in 2021, coupled with the continuous deepening of the medical reform policy, the reshuffle has increased market volatility;
Second, Gülen is more accustomed to heavy investment, coupled with the head guidance and the fund group, the stock price changes of its heavy stocks have a greater impact on the fund as a whole, and it is easy to rise and fall sharply. Last year, several of its heavy stocks pulled back sharply, and Tongce Medical, Aier Ophthalmology, Changchun High-tech, etc. all shrank from the high point.
Third, the larger the scale, the greater the responsibility and the greater the pressure, and the more difficult it is to make position adjustment and position opening decisions in this environment. Coupled with the above-mentioned rapidly changing market, the external environment also makes it easier for institutions to get together to invest, resulting in high stock prices, high valuations, and high gains, and ultimately laying hidden dangers for the stock price to fall sharply.
Take Changchun High-tech as an example. After Guangdong Province included growth hormone in the scope of collection, the stock fell continuously.
On January 19, 20 and 21, 2022, it fell and stopped for three days. As of February 10, the closing price was 165.25 yuan, and the market value was less than 67 billion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative decline has been 35%. Compared with last year's high, it fell by more than 60%.
In the first quarter of 2021, the stock was ranked as the third largest heavy stock of CEIBS Medical Health managed by Gülen, and since then, ceibble healthcare has expanded and Gülen's position has changed, and it has gradually withdrawn from the top three heavy stocks. However, in the fourth quarter, Gülen added another position in Changchun High-tech. At the end of November, the CEIBS Healthcare Hybrid Fund held 5.5172 million shares of Changchun Gaoxin, ranking it as its fifth largest circulating shareholder.
Judging from the above stock prices, have they stepped on a lightning point?
Looking back at July 2021, some media questioned that the injection of height increase may bring side effects such as endocrine disorders, and the amount of Changchun High-tech fell sharply, and Gülen reduced its position in Changchun High-tech at this time.
However, in the fourth quarter, what is the logic of adding positions, is it chasing up and killing down?
Looking at the fundamentals, the current sharp decline or not all of the collection policy is due.
Changchun Gaoxin growth hormone is mainly used in minors. Putting aside the above side effects, is it wise to reposition a company that relies on the new population only from the perspective of the decline in the new population?
Another fundamental is that Changchun High-tech has relied on explosive products to hit the world over the years, with R&D expenditure of 231 million yuan in 2021, an increase of less than 4%, while the sales expenditure in the same period was as high as 1.174 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year.
What exactly drives growth, what is the follow-up competitiveness, and is it a real "white horse stock"?
Peers see, hui tianfu that has been heavily positioned in Changchun High-tech, and several funds under E Fangda have significantly reduced their positions in Changchun high-tech in the fourth quarter, and Gülen has gone against the trend, is there a serious misjudgment?
There are still operations to consider.
Taking cerebellum medical innovation heavy stocks as an example, there were significant changes in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Among them, Gloria Ying was added 949,500 shares to 2.8473 million shares, rising to the first largest heavy stock; Mindray Medical also entered the list of the top ten heavy stocks; the rest of the long-term heavy stocks such as WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, Aier Ophthalmology, and Tongce Medical have increased their positions to varying degrees.
RanTongce Pharmaceutical closed at 302 yuan on September 30, 2021, 153 yuan per share on February 10, 2022, Aier Ophthalmology was 53.4 yuan for the former, 33.59 yuan for the latter, WuXi AppTec was 152.8 yuan before and 85.86 yuan after, and Kailaiying was 445.9 yuan and 276.1 yuan respectively...
In the third quarter of 2021, Hillhouse Capital withdrew from the top ten circulating shareholders of Gloria Ingen, Tigermed and Aier Ophthalmology.
Of course, hindsight can be done by anyone. Fund managers are not stock gods, and no one wants to step on a minefield.
However, investors of real money and silver only talk about achievements. Bad luck alone doesn't seem to make sense.
The greater the hope, the stronger the sense of gap: "The thunder in the pharmaceutical plate has been stepped on", "I told you to cut Aier Ophthalmology and Tongce Medical, you just don't listen", "Glen changed to Ge Ge Leek"...
There is no lack of one-sidedness and irrationality, but there are also regretful sighs. In the face of the questioning of ability values and the pain of stepping on thunder, should Gülen also reflect on it?
If you want to wear a crown, you will bear its weight.
03
Style pros and cons "one sister" refining into a memory
Fundamentals and long-term potential are the fundamental logic of stock selection.
Objectively speaking, Gülen's consistent investment strategy is to choose the leader of each subdivision track and hold it for a long time, such as the heavy position of WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, Tigermed, etc. are CXO leaders, Aier Ophthalmology was once called "Eye Mao", and Gülen held most of the above stocks for more than three years.
Compared with Zhao Bei's ICBC Credit Suisse Frontier Medical and Gülen's CEIBS Medical Health, 7 stocks of the top ten heavy stocks coincide, and only 3 stocks are different. It can be seen that there is not much space for stock selection in a specific sector, because there are only so many leaders.
So the question is, why can Zhao Bei get positive returns for the whole year?
Or related to the time of buying and the holding position. CEIBS Medical Health holds 140 million shares of Aier Ophthalmology, while ICBC Credit Suisse Frontier Medical only holds 20 million shares; Gülen's heavy-rated Tongce Medical has not entered Zhao Bei's top ten heavy stocks, and these two Zhao Bei alone have escaped a lot of losses.
In terms of stock positions and shareholding concentration, Gülen style is stronger, in the first half of 2021, the stock positions are more than 93%, the third quarter is close to 90%, until the fourth quarter to 80% level, while Zhao Bei's position is not more than 90%.
However, Gülen's ability to quickly "get out of the loop" also benefits from this. In 2020, its bet on Yingke Medical, which rose more than 14 times, brought huge returns to investors and won the god of war.
Just, is such a big ups and downs a plus?
According to public information, Gülen was born in 1985 and received a bachelor's degree in engineering physics from Tsinghua University and a doctorate in biomedical engineering from Northwestern University. After returning to China in 2011, he successively served as a researcher in Ifing Securities and Minsheng Canada Bank Fund, covering power equipment, new energy, light industry, medicine and other industries, and joined the CEIBS Fund in October 2014, from researcher to fund manager.
Looking back at the growth path of "one sister", it is not completely smooth, especially at the beginning of the game, there is no lack of setbacks.
When he first became a fund manager, Gülen, who was a doctor of medicine, did not focus on the medical track. In 2015, LeTV was bought as the third largest heavy stock. In the third quarter, Storm Technology was bought into the top ten stocks, and at the end of the year, it was added to the first heavy stock. At that time, the above stocks were all hot stocks, but the follow-up results were known to everyone.
Of course, the above belongs to the "black swan" event, which is not controlled by manpower, and many funds have suffered "stepping on the thunder" Waterloo at that time. In April 2016, Gülen resigned as fund manager of CEIBS New Start. In the 450 days of managing the fund, it achieved a score of -4.8%.
According to the daily fund information, in September 2016, Gülen re-assumed the position of fund manager and began to focus more on the field of medicine. In 2020 and 2021, Gülen became a fund manager for CEIBS Alpha And CEIBS Research Select. In addition to the pharmaceutical industry, it has also heavily positioned other industry leaders such as Sunshine Power, Oriental Wealth, and Ningde Times.
Since 2019, Gülen has begun to run downwind and manage the scale to take off. At the end of 2019, the scale under management was 7.135 billion yuan, an increase of 183.72% year-on-year; at the end of 2020, it soared 5 times to 44.191 billion yuan; in 2021, it exceeded 100 billion yuan and became the "first sister" of public funds.
Combing through the performance of the past three years, Gülen prefers to invest in star companies in popular tracks, and enjoys the returns brought by valuation expansion through continuous holding. The investment style is becoming more and more mature, and the overall operation is more sophisticated and precise. Objectively speaking, among the top streams of 100 billion, investor trust is also based on confidence.
04
Sealing the gods and the lost How to break the scale of the curse
Yes, ups and downs are the norm.
A century-old large enterprise needs ice and fire to temper, and excellent fund managers are not as good as it is.
Fund investment is a marathon, not a temporary success or failure of heroes.
It is worth emphasizing that according to iFinD data, as of February 10, the CeIBS Medical and Health Hybrid C Fund has performed poorly this year, with a return of -12.92% in the past Month. However, in terms of elongation, the performance of the fund is still considerable, exceeding 170% in the past three years and more than 210% in the past five years, all of which exceed the industry average.
The complaint is too rich to prevent intestinal breakage, and the wind and objects should be looked at for a long time. Perhaps, the market needs more patience.
And Yu Gülen and even the entire top stream circle, after reading the prosperity and loneliness, should also have more reflections.
The fund industry has a "size curse", which means that the larger the fund size, the more difficult it is to maintain performance.
Looking back at the industry, Gülen's current encounters have been repeatedly staged in the predecessors.
At the end of 2020, Zhang Kun, the fund manager of E Fangda, known as the "God of Wine", managed the active equity fund of 125.511 billion yuan, not only becoming the first fund manager with a management scale of more than 100 billion, but also being praised by many small whites on the altar: "Kun Kun bravely flies, iKun will always follow", "Kun Kun is not old, blue chips are old", like the embodiment of a new generation of wealth "koi".
However, with the glory of liquor in 2021, the 4 funds managed by Zhang Kun have all suffered losses, with E Fangda Asia Select net worth loss being the most serious, reaching 29.25%, E Fangda Quality Select falling by 13.5%, E Fangda Quality Enterprise holding 8.22% for three years, and E Fangda Blue Chip Select lossing 9.89%.
As of the end of 2021, its total management scale was 101.935 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 3.813 billion yuan from the end of the third quarter. Zhang Kun himself, from being a god to being lost, is only one year away.
Before Zhang Kun, the title of "PublicLy Recruited Brother" was attributed to Liu Gesong. The "three masters" of GF managed by it - GF Double Engine Upgrade, GF Innovation Upgrade, and GF Diversified Emerging Fund ranked among the top three in the performance of active partial stock funds in 2019. According to media reports, this is the first time it has appeared in 10 years.
On January 17, 2020, the GF Technology Pioneer Hybrid Fund, which liu Gesong managed alone, raised a total of 100 billion yuan per day. However, in the past year, GF "Sanjie" has also fallen to the altar, with a return rate of around -15%, GF Technology Pioneer Mix is even lower than -20%, and several funds rank last in the same category.
Another top god, Liu Yanchun, was also a similar encounter. The 2021 four-quarter report shows that not only did the total scale of management decline for two consecutive quarters, falling below the 100 billion mark, but also the annual performance of funds under management was also negative.
The city head changes the banner of the king, what should be the reflection between the ups and downs? How to avoid a flash in the pan and break the scale curse to sit on the altar?
Industry analyst Yu Shengmei pointed out that looking at the annual list of funds, there are many changes in the top ranking of each year, often the front foot is sealed, and the back foot falls. This is related to cyclical rotation, plate cooling and heating, and also related to personal luck, strength, and the general environment.
Indeed, the concept of a "star fund manager" is itself a risk warning. After becoming the peak of traffic, it is rare to be able to "quietly" concentrate on investment, be vigilant and fearful of scale, and even fewer can break path dependence, have a zero mentality, reconstruct value strategies, and continue to sit firmly and return to the gods.
Say goodbye to the hustle and bustle and the gods return to their places.
Seeing the above essence, it also means that small white investors should develop long-term investment habits, and it is best to have basic predictions before entering the game, such as the investment style and strategy of fund managers; avoid excessive pursuit of star funds, superstitious explosive funds, and avoid being set at a high level.
For fund managers, a cold bench mentality is important. Discerning the value target of pearls, predicting the cycle, stepping on the trend node, never just talking. Only by arching one pawn day by day and making the strategy practice more professional can we overcome the scale curse and live up to thousands of investors.
Gülen once wrote in his own letter: "Even for a good company, it is not easy to obtain a return on investment."
In the four quarters report, it also said that we have generally maintained a high position operation, and have focused on the layout in the direction of the long-term optimistic innovative drug industry chain, medical services, and leading enterprises of high-quality generic drugs. From the perspective of future configuration direction, the innovative drug industry chain is still the direction that we are most optimistic about for a long time, from the top-level design of national-level policies to the innovation accumulation of domestic enterprises in recent years, which has made the domestic innovative drug production industry chain maintain a high-end state of prosperity for a long time.
Determination, tenacity, vision, worthy of recognition. However, under the premise of full confidence and correct direction, we must also be vigilant against mr. Market's various willfulness. Especially with the institutions getting together, it is easy to let some problem stocks fish in muddy waters; high valuations and high stock prices are also easy to let high-quality stocks get out of fundamentals. How to accurately predict macroscopic and micro, so that everyone is drunk and awake, lightning protection and treasure digging, is still a serious test.
Buffett once said that in the short term, the market is a voting machine, and in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
For fund managers, why not.
After prosperity and loss, what kind of "voting" and "weighing" answers will Gülen and its funds hand over in 2022?
This article is original for Rhodium Cai
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