Rational return of coal prices in domestic power plants The average number of available days of coal storage reaches 23 days

In view of the continuous rise in coal prices after the Spring Festival, on February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration convened the energy authorities in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places and relevant enterprises to hold special meetings, arrange for the deployment of continuous work to stabilize coal market prices, and interview and remind enterprises with inflated coal prices, requiring enterprises to strengthen self-discipline, standardize price behavior, and ensure that coal prices are stable in a reasonable range.

Previously, under the overall stability of supply and demand in the coal market, domestic coal spot and futures prices generally rose too quickly in mid-to-late January. During the Spring Festival, although the relevant regions and central enterprises made every effort to stabilize coal production and supply and ensure coal demand, due to the decline in coal supply caused by the Spring Festival holiday of some private coal enterprises and the reduction of coal inventory in some ports, the price of thermal coal inventory in some pits and ports rose to varying degrees.

"The current market volatility should be viewed rationally. At present, the average number of available days of coal storage in domestic power plants has reached 23 days, which is significantly higher than the average level of previous years. Li Zhongmin, deputy general manager of the National Coal Trading Center, believes that after the Spring Festival, domestic coal production will accelerate the recovery, coal demand will be effectively guaranteed, coal transportation will continue to increase, the role of medium- and long-term contracts will appear, and the "four carriages" affecting coal price factors will operate safely and orderly, and coal prices will return rationally and gradually fall back.

Coal production has been accelerated. The Economic Daily reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that since February 3, coal production in various regions has rebounded rapidly, and has basically recovered to pre-holiday levels, and the coal storage of the national unified power plant has remained above 165 million tons, an increase of more than 40 million tons over the same period last year. In 2021, the annual output of raw coal will be 4.07 billion tons, and the average daily output of coal in the fourth quarter will reach more than 12 million tons. According to the monitoring data of the National Coal Trading Center, coal production in major producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia has accelerated its recovery after the holiday, and the demand for coal in the superimposed heating season has declined, and the coal supply guarantee capacity will be further enhanced.

Meet the needs of the market is guaranteed. Experts said that winter is the peak season of traditional energy consumption, from the current point of view, the occurrence of extremely cold weather is a small probability event, after the holiday industrial resumption of work and production driven by the consumption rebound intensity is generally weaker than before the holiday, with the reduction of heating energy, coal consumption will enter a seasonal adjustment. At present, the average number of available days of coal storage in domestic power plants has reached 23 days, of which the number of available days for coal transfers in central China and southwest China is higher than the average. Sufficient coal storage will be released steadily, and market demand will be effectively guaranteed.

Coal transportation continues to increase. According to the State Railway Group, as of February 3, 363 railway direct power supply plants across the country had stored 66.95 million tons of coal, an increase of 72% year-on-year, and the number of days of coal storage could be consumed reached more than 18 days, creating the best results in history. The relevant person in charge of the State Railway Group said that in view of the impact on coal transportation in other modes of transportation in Henan and other epidemic-related areas, increase the volume of railway transportation and carry out key supply guarantees; in view of the relatively low number of days of coal storage in 18 power plants in Shandong and Jiangsu, organize point-to-point accurate supply; at the same time, seize the precious "window period" of reducing the number of passenger cars during the Spring Festival holiday, give play to the role of heavy-duty railways such as Daqin, Tangbao, Wari, Haoji, and Houyue, and make overall arrangements for the transportation capacity of thermal coal to meet transportation needs. The capacity of the main coal transport channels of "West Coal East Transport" and "North Coal South Transport" has been continuously strengthened, the railway collection and transportation network of production and marketing areas has been continuously improved, the multimodal transport of major ports and logistics parks has been developed in an orderly manner, and the coal transport capacity has been further improved.

The role of medium- and long-term contracts has emerged. In December 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Regularly Reporting the Progress of The Signing of Medium- and Long-term Coal Contracts in 2022, which clarified that medium- and long-term coal contracts in 2022 will be entered and summarized in the national coal trading center, realizing closed-loop management of coal supply and demand, production and marketing, quantity and price, performance, and integrity. In 2022, the number of medium- and long-term coal contracts signed increased significantly year-on-year, the increase in medium- and long-term contracts in railways exceeded 150 million tons, the medium- and long-term contract volume through the Bohai Rim port accounted for nearly or more than 90% of the amount of water, the signing rate of medium- and long-term supply and demand contracts for coal for power generation and heating reached 100%, and the role of "ballast stone" and "stabilizer" for the market will also appear.

However, in the short term, the coal market resources are still tight, especially the resumption of work and production by enterprises, the upward movement of coal procurement demand, and the increase in energy demand brought about by the steady growth of the mainland economy as a whole may form a certain support for domestic coal prices. In this regard, Bruce Lee, director of the marketing department of China Coal Market Network, said that in the long run, with the further resumption of normal production and supply of coal enterprises after the holiday, especially after the relevant competent departments jointly held a meeting to strictly implement the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the 5500 kcal port coal price and the coal price of the place of origin will return to the price range of 900 yuan / ton and 700 yuan / ton. (Reporter Gu Yang)

Source: Economic Daily