Evergrande recently said that it is confident of resuming work in an all-round way after the Spring Festival. But how much undertonice is there?
Although it is still deeply mired in a debt crisis and the restructuring plan is also being planned, it is obvious that Evergrande is the top priority at present.
Evergrande recently disclosed its work plan for 2022, which has aroused a lot of attention. The core content of this plan is: this year to hand over about 70 million square meters, 600,000 sets of targets.
Evergrande delivered 39,000 houses in December last year, which is already the best delivery performance of Evergrande in the second half of last year. The annual target of 600,000 units means that there is an acceleration on this basis.
At the same time, 600,000 houses are close to half of the total number of houses that Evergrande needs to hand over. At this rate, Evergrande may take about two years to complete the full delivery.
On February 6, at the New Year's Mobilization Conference of Evergrande Group, Xu Jiayin disclosed the work plan for the whole year, including the number of 600,000 units of housing delivered.
Xu Jiayin's 2022 real estate strategy was disclosed, the capital market still made a positive response, on the morning of February 10, China Evergrande rose more than 7%, evergrande automobile also had the surface of rising more than 3%. It can be seen that real estate and automobiles have relatively good performance.
Xu Jiayin's speech also has several key points about the delivery of housing:
One of them, at present, Evergrande's pre-sale supervision funds are more than 50 billion yuan, which can basically start the full resumption of work after the Spring Festival.
I have also analyzed before that most of the house sales in China adopt the pre-sale system, that is, the buyer buys the house without seeing the house. Of course, this is quite unfavorable to home buyers, so the call to cancel the housing pre-sale system is still quite high.
Last year, many housing enterprises exploded, in order to protect the rights and interests of home buyers, many places have supervised the pre-sale funds.
Because of this, if the developer wants to get the pre-sale payment, it must resume work and deliver the house. Therefore, we see that many real estate companies that have exploded are desperately trying to guarantee the delivery of housing.
Second, according to Xu Jiayin, each province, city and district has set up a special class for Evergrande projects.
After Evergrande set up a risk mitigation committee, the progress of housing delivery has improved. From the market point of view, there are many more expectations. We can see from the comment area messages reported before that there are still many Evergrande projects that need to be promoted.
From a regional perspective, it should be very important to set up relevant teams to follow up the progress of the delivery of the house and strengthen communication with home buyers.
Third, the guarantee delivery project, the sale of the house to be delivered, not sold to find a way to sell out, otherwise it will still affect the progress of the delivery of the house, after all, a project is a whole.
In addition, the sale and start-up of Evergrande's high-quality assets are very important.
According to Xu Jiayin, Evergrande Group has such a family foundation: 56 million square meters of projects under construction that have not been taken for certification, 160 million square meters of land reserves, and 150 old renovation projects.
The numbers are listed in a column, and indeed the family foundation is quite rich.
Xu Jiayin also stressed that it is not allowed to sell the company's assets cheaply. Indeed, as he said: if the assets are sold cheaply, then Evergrande's debt of 20,000 yuan will not be able to pay off.
Evergrande is in a liquidity crisis, and its situation is difficult: the lid of the crisis was lifted in June last year, and there has been almost no capital inflow since September. This is also Xu Jiayin's self-disclosure dilemma, indicating that the breakthrough is not so easy.
Evergrande's huge debt is estimated to be repaid only through the sale of houses and land. Others, such as the transformation of the automobile business, in fact, there is only one word, and If Evergrande wants to take automobiles as its main business, it must also survive the difficulties of real estate.
Where can Evergrande's cash flow come from? Let's analyze it again.
First, guarantee the delivery of the house.
In fact, it is to activate the pre-sale funds, the project is moved, and the market confidence may gradually return, although this is still difficult.
Second, sell the house.
That is, to make selling a house smoother. Although the policy of the property market has been relaxed and the trend of the property market stabilizing is obvious, it is still much more difficult for the entire market to sell houses than in the previous two years.
Third, sell land.
It should be said that too much land was taken, so Xu Jiayin fell into a liquidity crisis. In fact, from the perspective of the head housing enterprises, basically the debt will not be low, just like Country Garden, there are 1.7 trillion yuan, but the debt repayment and sales ability is strong.
In fact, there has always been a concept in the development of China's real estate, that land is the core competitiveness of real estate enterprises. Logically, this is true, real estate itself is more like a resource type, there is no technical content, high-quality land can not be copied, of course, value pointing.
But you have to have the strength to hold it. This is the same as the principle of stock speculation, some good stocks you do not have the economic strength can not hold, you can only watch others eat meat, and you have to bear the pain of being cut leeks.
Fourth, Evergrande did invest a lot of money in building cars, and the news that Evergrande Automobile Tianjin Factory recruited a large number of workers a few years ago was also very eye-catching.
However, the competition in the field of new energy vehicles is now quite fierce, no longer a blue ocean, but a red ocean. Being able to build a car and mass produce it does not mean that it will eventually conquer the market.
Some people believe that Evergrande's continuous promotion of the process is to attract the entry of capital.
However, evergrande real estate has made capital prohibitive, is it possible that the car will usher in a wave of favor? It feels like the possibility is, or it's not great.
Two trillion yuan of debt repayment, this is definitely a difficult tug-of-war, perhaps Xu Jiayin once wanted to lie flat, but in the current situation, there is no possibility of lying flat.
Phoenix Weekly just disclosed this news: according to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Xia Haijun, vice chairman and president of China Evergrande, sold $128 million worth of bonds before the company fell into a debt crisis in 2021, until it was declared to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 9, half a year later.
As a person within Evergrande, in fact, especially the executives, when the threat comes, it is actually the first to smell those crises and risks.
2022 is coming like this, all the time of struggle is unfolding, I hope Evergrande can have continuous breakthroughs.