Accomplices of the Fall?
Recently, on the news of an online media, I saw that "the new year of A shares has a dismal start, which is the scourge of private equity expansion?" " article, the content points out that the expansion of private equity may bring a lead to the decline of A-shares. In the worst opening month of the past 6 years, is the expansion of private equity funds to be the back of the big A of decline? The article also pointed out that the opinion of a certain big man is that the performance of A-shares in the beginning of the year should be the result of a substantial expansion of the scale of securities private equity funds.
After the master read it, he also didn't quite understand the opinion of the big guy.
First, the big man is also the beautiful head of the private equity fund, and he also manages the private placement of several securities macro hedging strategies, with a management scale of more than 5 billion yuan. So does her argument prove that her fund strategy has made a lot of selling transactions and smashed the market? However, the market effect driven by its scale of less than 10 billion yuan should not affect the A-share market with trillions of trading volume.
Second, she believes that the homogenization of the domestic trading strategy of securities private placement is quite serious, resulting in a large amount of funds piled up in the same sectors and fields, and there will be vulnerability when the market performs poorly. Shi Ye is thinking, the current situation is that the total scale of securities private placement (excluding equity private equity funds) is only 6 trillion yuan, compared with the market value of more than 90 trillion yuan in the two cities of the A-share market, it should be less than 6%.
Take a look at the size comparison of U.S.-China securities private equity funds in 2017 (image from the Internet)
Badly injured?
At present, nearly 90 billion private placements have fallen into losses. According to the data of the private placement network, as of February 7, the number of 10 billion private placements was 111, and only 11 of the 10 billion private placements with positive performance, accounting for about 10%. At the same time, a number of private equity products are on the verge of liquidation. With such a serious injury area, do private equity institutions want to collectively self-impose?
As we all know, the survival opportunity of private equity institutions is the two important main lines of performance commission and management fee income. If they are sold together, causing the market value to shrink significantly or even liquidate, then what is the significance of the existence of these private equity institutions?
Put the decline in perspective
In fact, there has always been a voice in the market that as soon as it encounters a decline, someone will come out and say that the reason for the decline has been found. This time, the private equity institution found out the "back pot". What about next time? It may also be "Sino-US relations" or even other reasons. In fact, Master believes that it is a particularly boring thing to find a reason to try to avoid it as soon as it falls, and to find a point of view argument as soon as it rises.
The fall is to rise more, and the funds leave the market. Of course, this intermediate fund also includes products managed by private equity firms. Again, isn't the current decline the correction digestion of the rise before the Spring Festival?
Where are the opportunities?
Master, you talk so much, where is the opportunity?
First, do you have any funds in your hands? With money, there is a chance! So remember, don't fill the position! Don't fill up!
Second, in terms of sectors, you can go to see the recent inflow of funds, such as JJ, JR and other sectors.
Third, refer to the following figure, when doing asset allocation, understand monetary policy and allocate large types of assets.
Merrill Lynch Clock (Image from the Internet)