01. Preface
Starting in 2021, the real estate market in large and medium-sized cities in China has entered a trough.
Some cities in the northeast and midwest, which are even less economically powerful, began to slump in 2019 and have now fallen for three years.
In the Hangzhou property market after the Spring Festival, the three real estate projects that were freshly drawn out of the lottery, two of which ended in a flowing shake, and the best performance of Binwang Yating only had a winning rate of 45.6%.
At present, the two real estate projects announced, namely the Color City of Guali and the Rumu Qinghui City of Lin'an, according to their past achievements, they cannot set off any storms.
This, unlike the shock left by the SKP years ago, is completely different.
So, in the next February, will there be red disks? AoShidi, Rainbow Xuan, R&F Center and other real estate projects seem to have the momentum of arrows on the string.
According to the news from the developer, these red disks will most likely not arrive this month.
In recent years, due to the large number of population inflows, Hangzhou has superimposed on the large-scale infrastructure of the Asian Games, and has become one of the five strongest cities at present.
In particular, the new house with limited price is even more difficult to find.
However, the four-year-long lottery has released a large number of investment needs, especially in 2021, Hangzhou's new houses will be traded with about 200,000 sets, with a transaction amount of more than 600 billion yuan, and the average set is 3 million+.
From 2016 to 2021, the number of commercial housing units traded in the six years exceeded a staggering 1 million sets, and an average of about 170,000 sets of commercial houses were traded every year, of which commercial housing accounted for about 80%.
These new houses have now entered a centralized delivery period, and 2022 and 2023 are the big years of delivery.
02, Hangzhou property market is waiting for a spring
In January, the new house and second-hand house transaction volume of the Hangzhou property market, the new house network signing volume is not bad, and the single-day higher record has exceeded 1,000 sets, compared with the second-hand houses in Hangzhou, the new house market in Hangzhou is still good.
Hangzhou's second-hand housing market is not very good, the high number of online signatures in a single day is not even 300 sets, most of them are more than 100 sets or more than 200 sets, and a small part of the time is only dozens of sets.
From the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou, we can see a problem, that is, the Hangzhou property market is not as hot as everyone thinks.
People who have money in hand and really need to buy a house in Hangzhou have been scared to buy a house in the first half of 2021 when Hangzhou house prices are the craziest.
People who didn't buy a house at that time, they wouldn't enter at this time.
At present, the listing price of second-hand houses in Hangzhou is particularly inflated, and the actual transaction price of second-hand houses is only 80% of the listing price, or even lower.
Hangzhou's second-hand houses are too chaotic, which is also the reason why the new houses in Hangzhou sell better, after all, the second-hand house landlords ask for a price, and one carelessly becomes a wronged head, and it is better to buy a new house.
Hangzhou house prices are far from being adjusted in place, and buyers need to be cautious when buying a house in Hangzhou.
Overall, in January, In the list of residential buildings in Hangzhou's ten districts, Qiantang District ranked first among all districts with a transaction volume of 819 units.
This not only subverts the Long-standing Xiaoshan District, but also stabilizes the top position of the district's transaction volume for the first time since the establishment of Qiantang District.
In the list of residential buildings in Hangzhou's ten districts, the real estate in Qiantang District accounts for 3 seats, namely the Lanman City in the core of dajiangdong, and the Huyin Lightyear and Hangwang YunchaoFu in the Xiasha Central Park.
The second place in the transaction area is 751 units in Xiaoshan District.
The firepower value of Xiaoshan District comes from two real estate projects, one is the "1" prefix of the just need Pansen and Hai, and the other is the tens of millions of Olympic sports improvement disk SKP.
Lin'an and Fuyang in the suburbs, the combined transaction volume is less than 800 sets, and the decline is obvious.
The new house can't move, and the second-hand house is also bleak.
Whether Xiaoyangchun can arrive as scheduled will largely set the tone for the overall market of Hangzhou's property market in the coming year. Therefore, the changes in the Hangzhou property market in March are crucial.
First of all, it depends on whether the overall credit policy is loose or not.
The changes in second-hand houses in Hangzhou last year tell us that as long as the money bag is tightened, even if the second-hand house guidance price is not issued, the second-hand price can still be beaten down.
As long as the money bag is powerful, it is not difficult for the Hangzhou property market to get out of a wave of upward market.
Secondly, in terms of second-hand housing, the most important thing is to stabilize the price, and the amount of viewing and the transaction volume must be pulled up.
Landlords can't think of price increases when they hear a little bit of positives, which will scare buyers away. Only when the volume rises, it is possible to make the market develop for the better.
Third, if the market is to heat up, the new house needs to throw out a few heavy "explosives" and re-hoist everyone's interest in shaking the trumpet.
According to the current mapping situation of crayfish, in the first quarter of this year, it is expected that super red disks such as Aoshidi, Hangjun Future Center, Gudun Rainbow Xuan, and R&F Center may enter the market.
If these red disks can arrive as scheduled, the market attention will be raised.
People always say, winter is coming, will spring be far away? Nowadays, the wind direction has changed, and the Hangzhou property market is waiting for a spring.
03. Control of the Shanghai property market
Now real estate is the most incapable industry in China, everyone knows that the development of real estate, the negative impact on other industries in the country is very huge, but real estate can not be overturned.
Because real estate is like a tumor growing on the old man's body, you now have surgery to remove this tumor, then in case the old man's body can't bear it, it will be cold.
Then this operation is better not to do, but if you let this tumor continue to deteriorate, this old man will still be cold.
Now for real estate, it is frozen.
Lock up the real estate, do not let the real estate continue to be disorderly capitalization, financialization, and at the same time find a way to make the real estate from the past deformity to the normal aspect.
Suffice it to say, none of this will necessarily work out.
After all, over the years, the rapid rise in housing prices has given all those who believe in hard work to get rich, N big mouths; now people who still believe in hard work to get rich by their own hands are as rare as giant pandas.
In fact, in the four first-tier cities now, the most slippery one to play the control plate is Shanghai. It can be seen from the average price of new houses in Shanghai in the past decade.
From 2011 to 2015, in the past five years, Shanghai house prices were relatively stable, especially after the national house price bubble burst once in 2011, Shanghai house prices fell from 14,000 to 10,000 in 2011, and then slowly rose slightly to 2015.
In 2014 and 2015, Shanghai has already backlogged a large number of new house inventory, Shanghai to increase the price of new houses, but the buyers are not single, resulting in a backlog of new house inventory, so in 2016, then the national shed to change to inventory, Shanghai house prices began to jump;
The average price of new houses in Shanghai in 2015 was 10,0006, in 2016 it jumped directly to 21,000, and in 2017 it jumped to 20,0006, to know that this is a new house price, the average price in 2 years has risen by 10,000 yuan, think about the exaggeration of this increase;
In 2018, Shanghai house prices stopped for a year, house prices fell from 26,000 to 20,000 4, and in 2019, Shanghai saw that the inventory of new houses had accumulated again, and began to increase prices again, and as a result, buyers did not take over;
Even in 2020, buyers still do not compromise with high house prices and do not take over;
So in 2021, Shanghai also relaxed the operation of the loan to buy a house, so the price increase to inventory came.
04. Summary
To share crayfish's 10 views on the property market:
First, if you compare a house to a stake in a city, you can only buy a city with a continuous influx of population, rapid economic growth, and huge infrastructure investment. In addition to this, other cities are all chicken feathers.
Second, when the property market is in a stable upward stage, the victims are those who have not bought a house, and the beneficiaries are the people and enterprises associated with the property.
In the core cities, only a few people can afford to buy a house, because the wealth is in the hands of a few people, and when you make decisions, you only need to keep opposed to the majority of people, and you are the winner.
Third, stretching the time, in the next 20 years, the core city house prices will not fall, but moderately rise, but the performance of house prices in non-core cities is completely different, and house prices will only be flat, or moderately falling.
Fourth, commercial housing is a scarce resource in the core city and core area, and the resource is only valuable if it is scarce, because things are scarce and expensive. Therefore, apartments are not a scarce product, because they can be copied in batches, while commercial houses with high-quality degrees in the city center cannot be copied in batches.
Fifth, to measure whether a city can buy a house, you only need to go to several benchmark communities in the city at night to walk around, if the lighting rate is less than 70%, indicating that such a city is very general, if the lighting rate is less than 30%, you have to consider, re-choose the city where you work and live.
Because the choice is greater than the effort, the city you are in determines the upper limit of your life.
Sixth, learn to look at the mortgage correctly, in the short term, the mortgage does reduce your quality of life, but put the time to five years, ten years, you will find that the mortgage is improving your quality of life, are adults, first bitter and then sweet, needless to say.
Seventh, most people's life dilemma is that when they are young, they have a strong ability to make money, but they do not know how to buy a house in a big city, and when they are old, their earning power declines, and they have regretted it.
Eighth, buy a house in the core city, do not dwell on the fluctuation of the price, 10% more expensive, 10% cheaper, put it in 10 years, it is a doubling market, if 10 years have not doubled, it means that you are not buying the core city.
Ninth, there is no doubt that the medium of wealth that causes the gap between rich and poor is real estate. Fundamentally, this has never changed.
Tenth, the poor are always bearish on house prices, so they are always waiting for house prices to fall, and they are good to buy a set, essentially bearish house prices, they are bearish on the mainland economy, while the rich are always bullish on house prices.
Because in the eyes of the rich, they see more comprehensively and know the national fortunes of the mainland, the future economy will still enter an era of stable development, and the house price is only a manifestation of money and economy.
I hope that the above 10 points of view can help you better understand the law of the property market.