Since the United States defeated the Soviet Union and forced Japan to retreat in the last century, although the scenery is the same, it cannot be separated from the scope of historical laws, and gradually move from its peak to decline.
This coincided with the period of China's revival, so the United States, which had bullied the world for a hundred years, aimed its spearhead at China and found Trouble for China from the beginning of the 21st century.
Especially when China rose to become the second largest economy and its GDP has reached the 70% cordon set by the United States, it has unscrupulously suppressed China in an all-round way, starting from the trade war and going all the way to ideological wars, geopolitical wars, food wars, financial wars and other large and small battlefields, all of which have concentrated their firepower on China.
In fact, China and the United States have entered the "duel" stage, and the duel between China and the United States is neither at the negotiating table nor in the Pacific Ocean, where is the main battlefield of the Sino-US game?
The real main battlefield is to compete with the comprehensive national strength of the two countries, is a bonus to economic and military strength, and the most fundamental thing is the support of scientific and technological strength.
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="4" > negotiating tables and warships in the Pacific</h1>
At present, in order to maintain its position as the world's first hegemon, the United States has suppressed China in all aspects that the Americans believe is expected to replace it, imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, encircled the East and South China Seas, integrated China's neighboring countries, and intends to form an alliance of "Asian democracies" to unite its allies against China.
Even to co-opt the European Union, NATO, Canada, Australia and other european, American, and Oceanian allies to work together to engage in "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea, to engage in Pacific military exercises, digital technology alliances, and so on.
During the Trump era, More than 100 bilateral cooperation mechanisms between China and the United States have been interrupted, and although Biden has still been a "special rule" after taking office, China and the United States finally held a 2+2 dialogue in Alaska, and then US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman visited China.
At a time when the United States has always taken an aggressive attitude, Chinese representative Yang Jiechi calmly said that the United States should stand on the high plane of strength and dialogue with China. In the face of Sherman, Wang Yi proposed two lists on behalf of China, stating that the United States must solve these problems before the negotiations between the two countries can officially proceed.
Of course, the United States is not willing to show weakness or let China grasp the initiative, turn around and frequently suppress China, and even speak against China on various international occasions.
Just as history shows, the right to speak at the negotiating table comes from the actual comparison of national strength, just like serbian President Vučić, who visited the United States, could only sit on a small stool to face the condescending Trump.
The reason why China can be calm and calm at the negotiating table with the United States and face each other on an equal footing is also due to the performance of China's comprehensive strength in the world and the self-confidence of China as a powerful country.
So it doesn't matter if you come and go at the negotiating table, what matters is whether you have the strength to sit at the negotiating table on an equal footing to negotiate.
In addition, as a typical sea power country, the United States has long built three defensive belts or blockade island chains on the sea, of which the first island chain frequently mentioned by the United States is starting from Japan and passing through Taiwan and Guam to the Philippines, which can be said to completely enclose China's East China Sea and South China Sea.
However, this is only what the United States believes is a "blockade", and China has not only deployed heavy troops in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, but also strengthened economic and trade relations with ASEAN, including vietnam and other five countries in the South China Sea, constantly weakening the THREAT of the United States.
This time the United States defeated Afghanistan is an excellent opportunity, and I think that the "Belt and Road" initiative in Central Asia and West Asia should achieve more than expected benefits.
In particular, China already has two aircraft carriers, and China's nuclear submarines and conventional missiles have caused a great deterrent to the US military forces around the Taiwan Strait.
When the United States repeatedly deduced that when a military conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the consequences of the US military's intervention were not ideal, so the Pacific Ocean was only a major battlefield, but it was not a real Sino-US battlefield.
Whether it is the issue of the status at the negotiating table or the balance of military forces in the Pacific, the root cause lies in the rise and fall of the comprehensive strength of the United States and China, and its core is the change of international relations and social and political ecology by the technological revolution.
Science and technology is the primary productive force has become a consensus, and scientific and technological competition has become a key area in the great power game, and it is bound to become the real main battlefield of the Sino-US duel. The new wave of science and technology is not only changing people's lives, but also changing international relations, and the fiercest competition is between China and the United States.
In recent years, the United States "technological colonialism" highlighted, the landmark action is to the world's first power to suppress Huawei, it is because Huawei's 5G technology is ahead of the world, moving the cheese of the United States, which is an unforgivable "sin" for the United States, since then, the United States has adopted a series of scientific and technological blockades against China.
Russian scholars call the Sino-US science and technology game the first science and technology war in human history, and the United States suppresses China's science and technology in order to maintain the hegemony of science and technology of the United States, and then to maintain its hegemony in the world.
Although China responds passively, it will not give in, and it has unique institutional advantages, and the two sides will be a protracted encounter.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="6" > six weapons PK six advantages</h1>
President Putin once borrowed a "circle view" at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to characterize the US crackdown on "Huawei" as "the first technological war of the coming digital economy."
The essence of the So-called "decoupling" of technology by the United States is to suppress China's scientific and technological progress and economic development and prevent China from building its own technology supply chain system, thereby delaying China's economic development.
The status quo of the Sino-US science and technology game is that the United States attacks and defends, and the united States uses all means of technological blockade against China to the extreme, and has carefully created six kinds of scientific and technological warfare weapons.
The first weapon, the "Gun Ban", --- prohibits the export of key technical parts and components to China.
U.S. regulations restricting the export of dual-use technologies are very vague, and the scope of restrictions is getting wider and wider, and almost all products may be affected.
Since 2018, the United States has introduced a bill restricting exports to China in 14 technology categories, involving artificial intelligence, quantum computing, chips, chip manufacturing equipment and software.
The U.S. government has pressed well-known U.S. IT companies such as Google, Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm and Broadcom, as well as Britain's Anmou Technology Company, to refuse to supply software, technology and equipment to Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE. And the scope of sanctions has been expanded, and more and more companies, including SMIC, China's largest chipmaker, have been added to the technology sanctions list.
The United States has also forced companies in other countries to comply with U.S. government regulations through long-arm jurisdiction, forcing the Dutch company Asmay to stop exporting the most advanced chip manufacturing equipment to China, and TSMC has also been forced to reduce cooperation with companies such as Huawei.
One of the things that has been consistent in these actions is that the United States claims that Chinese products are unsafe without providing any evidence, and the charge of "false accusations" has gradually become common practice.
The second weapon, the "restricted gun," --- restrict Chinese companies from investing in technology overseas.
In August 2018, Trump signed the Modernization of Foreign Investment Risk Review Act, which strengthens the control of foreign investment in new technology companies in the United States, focusing on restricting Chinese companies from setting up research and development laboratories in the United States.
For Chinese companies such as Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba, Baidu and Didi Chuxing, which already have research and development centers in Silicon Valley, the FBI interviewed U.S. high-tech companies and warned them to reject Chinese investors, forcing many U.S. companies to tear up contracts they had signed with China.
In November 2018, the United States launched the China Action Plan, which lists more and more U.S. researchers as "non-traditional information collectors" and prevents them from working with Chinese companies. For some Chinese students involved in advanced technology, visa policies have been changed, and even Confucius Institutes have been forced to close as "spy centers".
The third weapon, the "Ally Sword," --- unite allies to squeeze the living space of Chinese companies.
On the grounds of security, the United States not only prohibits Chinese high-tech products and applications from entering the US market, but also tries to prevent Chinese companies from entering markets such as Europe. Then-Secretary of State Pompeo threatened European allies in an attempt to squeeze Chinese companies such as Huawei out of the European telecommunications market.
The fourth weapon, the "jamming bomb," --- constantly harasses Chinese companies operating in the United States. More and more Chinese companies are being harassed by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, making it difficult to carry out normal work. In particular, the forced purchase of ByteDance company TikTok marks that the United States has lost its bottom line.
Douyin is not the first company to be treated like this in the United States, but it is unprecedented in terms of the degree of pressure and shamelessness.
Douyin has about 100 million users in the United States and has a strong influence, so the case of Douyin shows that the United States no longer cares about its own image, and when the United States is profitable, it will not hesitate to undermine the principles of free economy and interfere in business freedom.
The fifth weapon, the "Relocation Axe," --- facilitate the relocation of American companies. The US government's non-market behavior has prompted Us high-tech enterprises to return to the United States, especially to persuade semiconductor suppliers to transfer production lines to the United States to fully control the entire industry chain from chip design to packaging.
The imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States has forced "U.S. companies to abandon cooperation with cunning China and return home to lost wanderers."
The sixth weapon: the "M&A knife" --- strengthen the monopoly position of American companies through mergers and acquisitions.
While weakening the competitiveness of Chinese companies, the United States has accelerated mergers and acquisitions to further consolidate the global hegemony of American companies.
Chaowei Semiconductor is preparing to buy chip manufacturer Xilinx for $30 billion, Nvidia is acquiring British Anmou Technology for $40 billion, and more than 95% of the world's smartphones and tablets use the architecture of Anmou Technology.
In this scientific and technological war, China is in a defensive position, but after decades of accumulation, China, which has made great progress, has six comparative advantages.
One of the advantages: the world's largest single market.
For many industries, the size of the market is decisive, "the Chinese mouth is more than 4 times that of the United States, and it is self-evident where the largest artificial intelligence market will appear."
China has a population of 1.4 billion, per capita GDP of about 10,000 US dollars, a huge market volume and export-oriented economic model, not only conducive to the localization of microelectronics and aerospace and other technologies, but also to better promote scientific and technological innovation and promotion and application, China's electric vehicles, electronic payment is in front of the world.
The second advantage: a large talent pool with a large base.
About 8 million college students in China graduate every year, of which 4 million study mathematics, machinery and technology, and there is no shortage of talents in the high-tech industry.
The quality of Chinese research papers is also close to that of the United States, with the United States accounting for 24.7% of the papers in terms of the share of papers with the highest number of citations, ranking first, and China accounting for 22%, ranking second.
Although the number of researchers in the United States is currently more than 4,300 per million people, which is three times that of China, China has a huge scientific research base and education investment, and the gap between the two countries is rapidly narrowing.
The third advantage: continuous ultra-high investment.
There is still a gap between China and the United States in investment in research and development, but China is catching up. In 1991, China's R&D investment accounted for 0.72% of GDP, which increased to 2.18% in 2018. In terms of amount, China's R&D investment in 1991 was about 13 billion US dollars, but it increased to 444 billion US dollars in 2018, an increase of 33 times, ranking second in the world.
The fourth advantage: a market-oriented financing system built for scientific and technological innovation. Launching China's NASDAQ --- the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Science and Technology Innovation Board, greatly reducing the difficulty of financing scientific and technological innovation, "if the project is successful, the Flow of Chinese funds to Silicon Valley will plummet, which will bring big trouble to the U.S. innovation sector."
The fifth advantage: super government guidance and planning capabilities. China is one of the few countries in the world that can develop and implement long-term plans. In 2016, the Chinese government set the goal of innovative economic development, and then issued guiding documents such as "Made in China 2025" and "Internet +", which are committed to providing support for the scientific and technological innovation of social enterprises and implementing centralized research on key projects.
Advantage six: "strategic cultural advantage" and political system advantage.
China has a profound cultural heritage, is the oldest surviving civilization country, with a history of 5,000 years, relying on this cultural heritage, not only resisted the impact of foreign nationalities, but also gave birth to the world's largest population and economy.
China's elite is good at long-term planning and planning for decades. The United States, on the other hand, has a short history, is arrogant and confident, and tends to think short-term. As a result, China's strategic culture is more resilient.
China's political system is more efficient, more cohesive, and more capable of formulating and implementing policies than the American political system, which, at least at the top of the --- president, Congress, and the judiciary, simply cannot be coordinated.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="8" > the Sino-US science and technology game has the potential to change the status quo of the world</h1>
Although the intensity of the Sino-US science and technology game is unprecedented, it is difficult to "decouple", the two sides have mutual needs, and the effect of the United States killing a thousand enemies and losing eight hundred is not ideal, and the Sino-US science and technology war will have a huge and far-reaching impact on the world.
First, the new technological revolution is affecting the reshaping of state relations. Technological inequality has always had a major impact on global politics and the economy, and technologically advanced countries are also the most economically successful, and military superiority is more pronounced, and naturally they will impose their will on technologically backward countries.
The technological revolution of the 20th century further strengthened the influence of technology on the global political economy. In the new round of technological revolution, artificial intelligence is a key factor affecting geopolitical and military power in the next few decades, the geopolitics and military doctrines of developed countries will undergo fundamental changes, and the intelligent weapons arms race has begun, and affecting the development direction of this technology.
Although the technology itself is politically neutral, but the standard setting has national attributes, such as 5G standards, the country that formulates the standard will gain a competitive advantage, and although artificial intelligence is not yet a standardization problem, it will come sooner or later, and the latter will also involve quasi-political issues such as culture, morality and ethics.
With the intensification of the Sino-US science and technology game, the politicization of science and technology in the West has become more and more serious, there is no distinction between right and wrong, only between you and me, "the smear of China and then the blatant demonization, not only the tactical means of the United States, but also an urgent need to prove their superiority, it seems to be to belittle others themselves is the right side in history, if in the past the West still had to distinguish who is right and who is wrong, now it is simplified---we are right, you are all wrong."
As a result, even if your product is good, I don't have to, and globalization is "Balkanized".
Second, the technological "Iron Curtain" is gradually forming.
One of the inevitable consequences of the current "decoupling" of science and technology promoted by the United States is that China seeks scientific and technological independence, and then forms two major technical camps around the two countries, and other countries are forced to choose sides, and then there is a technological "iron curtain", "the new iron curtain will be built with technical bricks, and breaking through the iron curtain will be more difficult than overthrowing the Berlin Wall, or even impossible."
In fact, the hostile policies adopted by the Americans as a result of attempts to hinder China's technological development may have very unpleasant consequences, and the world may be divided into the sphere of influence of the United States and the sphere of influence of China.
The result of the "decoupling" of the United States from China's science and technology is to accelerate China's independence in software and hardware, and the relationship between the two sides has changed from the original "American design, Chinese assembly" to "Chinese design, self-assembly" model.
Reality also shows that when the United States banned Google from providing services to Huawei products, Huawei successfully launched its own Hongmeng operating system and ecological service system in just a few months. In terms of chip and semiconductor demand, China will fully import substitution by 2030.
It is therefore highly likely that the global network will split into a network of countries. The construction of a sovereign Internet will accelerate, and the Internet may be divided into two --- the network of American supporters and the network of American opponents, each implementing its own online currency and trade rules.
But because other technological powers do not want to be subject to others, they do not want to take sides. They will strive to compete in technology and provide alternative options for the world.
Third, the rules of the game in market competition are changing.
The Sino-US science and technology war has made more and more countries realize that to get ahead, they need to use the power of the state, so the government has come to the forefront from behind the scenes.
If China and Russia have always had the tradition of formulating national development plans, and the introduction of scientific and technological plans is not "contrary to harmony", then the United States, the European Union, and other countries that have always pursued a free market economy have not formulated industry government plans, and now they are also promoting the formulation of scientific and technological development strategies.
Proposing a development plan for specific industries means that the rules of the game have undergone a fundamental change, no longer being enterprise-led and market-oriented, but government participation, national security interests are paramount, and technological competition has risen from between enterprises to between countries.
From the perspective of behavior, the United States uses national power to suppress Huawei, does not hesitate to spend a lot of money to dismantle Chinese-made communication equipment, and even promises that if Brazil agrees to abandon Huawei's 5G network, the United States will provide Brazil with $1 billion in compensation.
Fourth, "technological colonialism" is gradually rising.
A new round of revolution will once again expand the superiority of technologically leading countries, and the technological gap between countries will not narrow, but will widen. New technologies are widely used, and technologically developed countries can continuously improve their economic competitiveness in the case of insufficient human resources, and catch-up will be more difficult.
The development and application of artificial intelligence and robots can greatly save manpower, so that developed countries can produce competitive goods in the case of fewer manpower and high wages, and the speed of industrial transfer is slower. The original "demographic dividend" of developing countries is no longer a dividend in the face of the new wave of new technologies, but is more likely to be a burden.
Technologically advanced countries control technologically backward countries by preventing technology transfer based on market rules through technological restrictions, sanctions, etc. Technology monopolists not only obtain most of the profits, but also restrict or prohibit others from using them at will, forming a de facto "technological colonialism".
From a global perspective, ai development will widen the technological gap between LDCs and advanced economies, with the consequences of which could be another kind of polarization--- the more advanced and the more backward.
Intellectual resources and capital are increasingly concentrated in large-scale R&D centers, and the world's major scientific and technological talents and capital are increasingly concentrated in Silicon Valley in the United States and Shenzhen in China, which is the reflection of this trend.
The Sino-US science and technology war is a long game of great powers, not about tariffs, trade deficits and violations of WTO regulations, nor about the protection of intellectual property rights, but about the dominance of the new order of key technologies and science and technology.
Although the process of globalization has slowed down, it will not be reversed, and any country needs a global market, especially for Western multinationals. Once technology is divided into two camps, the industrial chain that has connected the world will be broken, and it will not benefit anyone.
Therefore, the sino-US science and technology war has also been concerned and restricted by countries around the world, and in the end, the victory or defeat of both sides is unpredictable, but the impact on the development of global science and technology is absolutely far-reaching and huge.