Last year can be said to be a key transformation year for the real estate industry: the central government continued to set the tone of "housing and not speculation"; the effect of the "three red lines" policy was further highlighted; and the "14th Five-Year Plan" was fully launched.
In late January this year, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference was held in Beijing in the form of video, according to the content of the meeting, in 2022, the real estate industry will continue to maintain the trend of "strengthening real estate regulation and control, adhering to the trend of "housing and not speculation; taking "stability" as the main tone and promoting the structural reform of the housing supply side".
Today, we will analyze the overall development environment and theme of the real estate industry in 2022 from the central to the local government in January.
In November, the regulation was mainly stable
In the current environment, there is room for fine-tuning of real estate policies, but the main tone is difficult to reverse.
Stable land prices, stable house prices, and stable expectations will be the basic requirements of the real estate industry for a long time, which also means that the traditional property market cycle of "one loose and one tight" will completely disappear, and housing enterprises will lose the opportunity to rely only on land and market expectations for cross-cycle arbitrage, coupled with the demand for supply-side reform of the real estate industry and the reduction of leverage of housing enterprises, and finally realize the simultaneous financial attributes of both the supply and demand ends of the real estate industry, so that housing can truly plan consumption attributes.
In the first month of 2022, the central and local governments frequently issued property market regulation and control policies, which are precisely to support and guarantee the housing needs of ordinary buyers.
According to incomplete statistics, in January 2022, the number of relevant real estate policies and relevant meetings was as high as 66 times, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year.
The policy content is mainly to relax provident fund loans, increase housing subsidies, develop affordable rental housing, and support real estate development enterprises.
Ningbo Municipality issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Housing Provident Fund Loan Policy of Ningbo City", from January 1, 2022, families with two or three children in accordance with the national birth policy, who have paid the housing provident fund for 2 consecutive years and applied for a provident fund loan for the first time to purchase the first set of self-occupied housing, the maximum loan amount of the housing provident fund will be increased from 600,000 yuan / household to 800,000 yuan / household.
Baoding City provides the first set of housing subsidies for college graduates settled in Baoding City: the maximum subsidy for the first set of housing is 150,000 yuan, and the subsidy for non-Baoding college graduates is 1,000 yuan per person.
Hunan Province issued the Notice on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing, requiring Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan and Yueyang to vigorously develop affordable rental housing as key cities for the development of affordable rental housing. The target of the guarantee is the eligible new citizens and young people, the construction area is mainly small units of no more than 70 square meters, and the rent is lower than the rent of rental housing in the same area and the same quality market.
Tianjin Municipality issued the "Tianjin Municipal Residence Management Measures" and "Tianjin Residence Permit Points Index and Score Table" to refine the conditions for the settlement of points.
In addition, Sichuan, Anhui, Guangdong, Fujian, Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong and other cities or regions have introduced relevant policies or measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.
In 2022, the stability of the property market will become the norm. Monetary policy may continue to exert efforts to stabilize the economy and strengthen support for the "six stability" and "six guarantees".
On January 20, the central bank announced that China's January 1-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) was 3.7%, down 10 basis points from the previous month. The 5-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) was 4.6%, down 5 basis points from the previous month.
Affected by the interest rate cut, the demand for housing in the property market has gradually reversed the downward trend, and the market has gradually stabilized.
2 It will take time for policy warmth to be transmitted to the market side
In January 2022, the prices of newly built and second-hand residential buildings in 100 cities across the country continued to decline month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed, which is closely related to the introduction of new property market policies in some cities at the beginning of 2022.
According to the survey data, in January 2022, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 16179 yuan / square meter, down 0.01% month-on-month, and the decline was narrowed by 0.01 percentage points from the previous month. From the number of cities that rose and fell, 44 cities rose month-on-month, 46 cities fell month-on-month, 10 cities were the same as last month, and the number of falling cities decreased by 12 compared with the previous month.
In terms of investment and development, according to statistics from research institutions, in January 2022, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 housing enterprises was 83.7 billion yuan, down 62.6% year-on-year, of which the total amount of land obtained by 50 representative housing enterprises fell by 88.8% year-on-year. According to a report released by the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, in the first 23 days of January this year, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country was 17.57 million square meters, down 20% month-on-month and 44% year-on-year.
In a short period of time, the central government and more local governments will support the real estate industry and the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers as the focus of the next step, and further alleviate the downward pressure on the property market.
At the same time as writing this article, Xiaolou saw the newly baked "Several Measures to Promote the Healthy Development of Housing Consumption in Daya Bay Area" on the Internet, and the document mentioned a number of preferential measures for buying houses in Daya Bay, Huizhou, including:
For the first set of house purchases with college degree or above, the subsidy is 100 yuan-250 yuan / square meter, and the upper limit of the subsidy is 144 square meters; encourage enterprises or groups and real estate development enterprises to cooperate in group buying activities, of which there can be a 20% price reduction space between the group purchase price and the filing price; the first purchase of commercial products, the district finance according to the proportion of 30% of the deed tax paid by the district finance to give financial subsidies; appropriate relaxation of household entry policies, shorten the time to enter the household, etc.
Under the influence of such expectations, the real estate market will gradually come out of the trough, adding confidence to housing enterprises and home buyers. However, considering the time lag effect of the policy role transmitted to the market, the real clarity of the property market may not be until March.
3 Affordable rental housing or into the future development direction?
In the central or local property market regulation and control policies, there is a reference that appears many times: increasing the supply of affordable rental housing.
In this year's local government work report, all localities mentioned the need to vigorously promote the construction of affordable housing. Compared with the affordable housing actually built in 2021, the construction targets in various places in 2022 have been improved to varying degrees.
According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 40 key cities initially plan to add 6.5 million units (rooms), which is expected to help 13 million new citizens and young people alleviate housing difficulties. In 2022 alone, 2.4 million units of affordable rental housing will be built and raised.
Fuzhou, Shanghai, Wuxi, Nanjing, Qingdao, Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan and Yueyang have also proposed to vigorously develop affordable rental housing.
The formulation comes first, and the policy follows suit. Just the day before yesterday, the Chinese Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on The Loans Related to Affordable Rental Housing Not Included in the Management of Real Estate Loan Concentration", the core content is: Affordable rental housing related loans are not included in the real estate loan concentration management!
The central bank said that the clarification that loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration will help banking financial institutions to increase credit for affordable rental housing projects, support the construction of the mainland housing security system, and help promote the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-purchase.
In the future, banks will no longer be constrained by the concentration management indicators for relevant loans, and there will be sufficient space to increase credit for affordable rental housing projects.
A number of housing enterprise personnel said that the loans related to affordable rental housing are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration, which is conducive to supporting the construction of the mainland housing security system and promoting the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-purchase, thereby promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Affordable rental housing or new directions for the future development of housing enterprises.
Finally, the welfare time is up.
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