On January 8, according to Japanese media reports, the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps have completed a "joint expeditionary exercise" with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. The exercise initially verified the ability of the US military to implement "rapid deployment" of the first island chain with the support of the Japanese side. As soon as the news came out, the media on the island of Taiwan danced and hyped up the joint US-Japan exercise to "guard against armed raids by Chinese mainland." The joint U.S.-Japan exercise around Okinawa involved two Land Combat Expeditionary Forces (MEUs) and an Amphibious Combat Readiness Group (ARG), which gathered tens of thousands of elite soldiers.
U.S. Idea: Assessing Japan's Capabilities
The Pentagon has previously said that one of the main purposes of the joint exercise is that the United States needs to have a "comprehensive understanding" of the support that Japan can provide in wartime, and that "with the outbreak of the crisis and Japan becoming a potential war-fighting party, the United States needs to understand how Japan can support or strengthen the United States' combat capabilities." In the event of a conflict between the United States and China in Taiwan, the U.S. military will have to rely on Japanese naval and air bases, and diplomats in both countries are discussing legal issues related to joint military operations between the two sides, including the use of military bases and what kind of logistical support Japan can provide to the U.S. military in the event of a conflict between the United States and China.
The so-called "prevention of Chinese mainland raids" hyped by the media on the island is actually the desire of the United States and Japan to form a tripartite information-sharing mechanism with the Taiwan region to pay close attention to the Chinese mainland movements, especially the situation of Chinese mainland military forces entering and leaving the Miyako Strait in the east of Taiwan. Japanese sensors are deployed in the northeast of the Miyako Strait, while sensors from Taiwan are deployed in the southwest of the Miyako Strait. "Information and data collected by their respective sensors are already being shared between Taiwan and the United States and between Japan and the United States, but there is no mechanism for direct sharing between the three parties." However, the three parties shared military aircraft identification codes in 2017 to help identify friendly military aircraft. As the United States and Japan began to expand their bilateral joint military programs, Japan asked the United States to provide and share its operational plans for the Taiwan region. But the U.S. Department of Defense's response was not straightforward, as the United States wanted to expand its military coordination with Japan in stages for the sake of controlling Japan. The United States believes that it is very important for the United States and Japan to demonstrate a "united front" against Taiwan, and hopes that Japan will play a more important military role in the strategy of countering Chinese mainland.
Many reports have mentioned that the US side hopes to mention Taiwan in the joint statement of the summit and urges the Japanese side to publicly express its support for Taiwan in the joint statement with the United States. As tensions between the United States and China have intensified, it has indeed become increasingly difficult for Japan to maintain its delicate strategic equilibrium and speculative relationship. The US side believes that the discussion of the Taiwan Strait and security issues at the bilateral summit between the United States and Japan will not only allow Chinese mainland to hear such signals, but also the Asia-Pacific allies who need to ensure that the United States keeps its promises, so that the US alliance system can play a greater role in assisting in the defense of Taiwan. The United States tends to believe that in a high-intensity conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it would be extremely unrealistic to escalate the war on its own and carry out a comprehensive blockade or strike on Chinese mainland targets without prior coordination and preparation with Japan. Politically and militarily, without the strong assistance and support of allies, especially Japan, the U.S. military would no longer be able to stop and defeat Chinese mainland military operations in the Taiwan Strait. When there was an incident in the Taiwan Strait, the initial response was the US military stationed in Japan, and the US military had high expectations for the support of the Self-Defense Forces.
Japan's fantasy: using Taiwan to block China
In the eyes of Japan's conservative faction, there is an inevitable link between the Taiwan Strait crisis and the "change of hands" of the East Asian order, believing that once China completes national reunification, then the order pattern in East Asia will inevitably develop to the era when China holds the right to speak, and the geopolitical pattern advantages in East Asia will continue to tilt toward China. The Conservative Japanese faction, which has always presented itself as the "Britain of East Asia," believes it needs to "do something" to prevent Taiwan from being reunified by Chinese mainland. Japan's conservative political elite believes that the existence of "independence and no reunification" on the Taiwan side has greatly limited the Chinese mainland's ability to dominate the East Asian region, and as long as the United States and Japan work closely with the Taiwan region on security issues, they can increase the cost of Chinese mainland the island chain-breaking strategy. Some Japanese "strategists" believe that Taiwan is an important node in the regional order dominated by the Chinese mainland, and that the mainland's Taiwan-related geostrategic agenda goes beyond the scope of the reunification of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is located between the East China Sea and the South China Sea, and the mainland cannot concentrate its naval forces without passing through the waters near Taiwan, so Taiwan as a fortress to contain Chinese mainland is of great strategic significance to Japan; the reunification of the Taiwan Strait will greatly worsen Japan's strategic prospects, and its results will affect the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region for decades.
The United States, Japan and Taiwan: who is a chess player and who is a chess player
From a macro point of view, the United States is the main chess player in the overall situation of the Taiwan Strait game, but judging from Japan's many moves in recent years, the LDP is very unwilling to be a "pawn" and wants to make a breakthrough. Although Japan has diversified military exercises with the United States in practical operations and tried to slowly touch the key parts that affect the joint operation of military forces between the two sides, from the current Japanese legal environment, Japan's restrictions on participating in a foreign war are still very strict. Even under the 2015 decision to lift the ban on the "right to collective self-defense" and the new security law, the Japanese government must convince the people that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait will inevitably endanger Japan's security. Therefore, the Restrictions imposed by the Japanese Government on declaring "important matters of influence" and "threats of survival" are so strict that it is questionable whether such a situation can actually declare an "existential threat" and whether such a declaration will have practical effects. For example, Japan may declare its very existence threatened and then launch the right to collective self-defence only if three conditions are met: first, the government must credibly prove that Japan's own existence is threatened; Third, no matter what force is used, it must be within the necessary minimum. The natural rejection of the Japanese people from war and the existence of procedural justice that "you must persuade the people before entering the war" make it difficult for Japan to respond quickly in a modern local war. At that time, if the US military insists on intervening, then the US Indo-Pacific garrison that is "naked in front" is likely to face a "decisive defeat". It is precisely the existence of this "decisive right at a critical moment" that makes it very likely that Japan will "change from a pawn to a chess player" at a critical moment when the United States needs Japan, and as for Taiwan, which smells the chicken dancing when it sees the United States and Japan making moves, it is a small night without ambition, and it is bold to sing to itself at night.