Chinese Internet LOF
After continuous margin call, the position has been full, and at today's price, the fund loss is 13%.
Fundamentals are improving
Last year's Internet news was mostly negative, such as Internet companies being sanctioned by other countries, suspected monopolies being fined, huge losses, and layoffs at the end of the year by many well-known enterprises.
This year's news is full of positive energy, such as Internet companies helping the digital economy, helping epidemic prevention and control, and helping traditional industries to upgrade.
risk analysis
The price of China Internet LOF today is 1.08 yuan, the highest 2.699 yuan, the lowest 0.646 yuan, 1.61 yuan from the high point, and 0.43 yuan from the low.
Assuming that the probability of reaching a high is the same as a low, the odds are now 1:3.7.
The great man once pointed out in "Capital" that capital dares to trample on all rules for 100% profit, and 300% profit is worth the risk of hanging his head.
Bet now and the potential profit is 370%.
Cycle analysis
I don't know if you can see the above picture clearly, but I will describe it in words below.
The trend length of Chinese Internet funds, most of which remain at 50 weeks of K-line, about a year
2017-1-6: 0.94 yuan
arrive
2017-11.03: 1.56 yuan, up nearly a year.
Then start the downtrend
2018-12-28: 1.07 yuan, also close to a year.
Rise again
2020-1-17: 1.48 yuan, another year, and then pulled back for 9 weeks, down 23% after.
The last rise
2021-2-29: 2.69 yuan, or a year.
Then it started plummeting, all the way down to today.
February 10, 2022, $1.08, another year.
conclusion
I think the bottom is done, the short-term is a rebound trend, the high point does not exceed 1.5 yuan, and if you buy now, there is a 30% gain.