In order to comprehensively promote the common prosperity of society and broaden the channels of fiscal revenue for local governments, the property tax will soon be piloted in some cities across the country, which is already a foregone conclusion. In fact, from the realization of the national networking of the real estate information management basic platform in 2018, so that the real estate under the name of the individual is completely transparent, to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 2020, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires the promotion of online signature and filing of a network construction, which has cleared the technical obstacles for the collection of real estate tax. In an important article published in the 20th issue of "Qiushi Magazine" last year, it was proposed that "we must actively and steadily promote real estate tax legislation and reform, and do a good job in pilot work", it can be said that real estate tax has been on the string and is ready to be launched. Which cities are most likely to enter the list of cities in the pilot project is estimated to be announced this year. Then after summing up a set of mature experience, it will be fully implemented nationwide, that is, a few years later. Therefore, many people have issued the feeling that "there is not much time left for speculators", which is not as tired as the repeated shouting of "wolves are coming" in the past, but the thick atmosphere of mountain rain and wind everywhere. After all, the introduction of a real estate tax will leave the owner of the property with nowhere to escape, no matter whose name you hang the house in, no matter when or in which city you buy the house, it will be difficult to escape the property tax, unless the tax is really as some people predict, for families with only one suite.
Will just speculators be affected? Of course not all. The author believes that the following 5 types of people will be affected, and they will be the most vulnerable groups to be "injured" after the property tax is fully introduced. The first category, people who own multiple properties in big cities. According to foreign levy practices, a "ladder tax rate" system is usually used, and it is related to the valuation of the property. In other words, the more units you own, the more expensive the total value of a single home and the more taxes are levied. As we all know, the housing prices in first-tier cities are also starting in millions, and the high ones are tens of millions or even over 100 million, not only do you need to pay hundreds of thousands of or hundreds of thousands of taxes and fees every year for a house, if you have multiple properties, the pressure on taxes and fees is even greater. This will force people who own multiple properties to sell in concentration, especially those who hold multiple properties on loans. Once the property market enters the buyer's market after oversupply, the market cannot digest so many listings in the short term, and the house price will naturally enter the downward channel. It is worth mentioning that do not overestimate how strong the resistance of hoarders in first-tier cities is, from the data that "real estate accounts for 77% of household wealth, only 23% of wealth belongs to financial products", it can be seen that in fact, many people are "poor enough to have only houses left". There are not a few people with ordinary family members in first-tier cities with a monthly income of less than 5,000 yuan, and even if it is levied at a 1% tax rate, it will also make multiple apartment holders feel "pain".
The second category is people who hold multiple properties in third- and fourth-tier cities. The reason why the housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities can be blown to tens of thousands of yuan or even tens of thousands of yuan per flat is related to factors such as the spillover of funds from big cities, the brand effect of star housing enterprises, and the promotion of monetization shed reform. In short, the economic development of third- and fourth-tier cities was originally very weak, and the housing prices of 10,000 yuan per flat were not at all the embodiment of their comprehensive strength, but the result of the accumulation of bubbles. This hollow price, which is created without economic and demographic support, will be crumbling even if it is slightly windy, let alone hit by a high-grade typhoon like the real estate tax. The saddest thing is that after the first wave of house prices doubled in 2016, the real professional speculators have long cashed out, and the high-level receivers are actually those small rich groups with a slight surplus on hand, or retail investors composed of some middle-income classes. In the embarrassing situation that the population is not population, the economy is not economic, and the demand for shed reform is replaced by the old reform, the game of drumming and passing flowers has long been ended in these cities, and once the property tax falls, these people simply cannot find the opportunity and group to pass on the tax crisis.
The third category is the group of renters living in big cities. There is no doubt that once the property tax is introduced, it will increase the cost of the house in the holding process. For multi-suite owners in big cities, the only hope is that the state can set the tax rate a little lower, or even the "painless, itchy" and "dragonfly point water" tax rates similar to those in the past when Shanghai and Chongqing were piloted. But that seems unlikely. Because the pilot experience proves that the tax rates, collection targets, and reduction policies formulated by the two places cannot play a role in promoting local fiscal transformation and stabilizing housing prices. Therefore, all hoarders in big cities, in the case that the surplus houses will not be able to get rid of for a while and a half, in order to make up for the gap in tax expenditure, they will definitely take advantage of the influx of population and the relatively large rental group to transfer the tax costs to the renters in the form of rent. After all, the long-term real estate mechanism is still being established and perfected, and there is a big gap between low-cost housing, public rental housing, co-ownership housing, safe housing, talent housing, etc. for the housing-free group, and there is a high threshold for applying for such properties, such as linking with the annual income of the family. And those who rely on renting to solve their housing problems will become the most direct victims of landlords passing on property taxes. However, tenants cannot passively wait to be harvested by the landlord, take up legal weapons, jointly oppose the landlord's irrational rent increase, and move to other cities with low cost of living to find another way.
The fourth category is people who hold "old and broken" houses in the city and "empty and far away" villas in the suburbs of the city. Under the favorable policy that the shantytown reform has not ended, the old houses in the city still have the opportunity to wait for demolition, but after the old reform replaces the shed reform, it will not produce new demand for housing. After being included in the scope of old reform, although the living environment will be improved, it will lose the opportunity of demolition, and if the house is no longer blessed with high-quality educational resources, the mobility will become worse, and it can only meet the basic living needs. As with villas, due to the size of the larger size, the excess of the old dilapidated house may be subject to property taxes. And the villa located in the outskirts of the city, due to the lack of living facilities, backward surrounding infrastructure, inconvenient transportation, the total price of the house is too high defects, it has been difficult to change hands, the future levy on real estate tax, only a single villa tax is a larger expenditure, after all, the group with villas, the vast majority of people do not lack houses in the city. The reason why it is believed that the only old and broken set in the city may also be within the scope of taxation, because if a house is exempted, it is neither fair nor able to prevent the secondary differentiation of wealth and eliminate the purpose of unfair distribution through taxation, and it will also push up the divorce rate, which is not conducive to building a harmonious society. For example, for the only villa exemption, and the only set of ordinary commercial housing exemption, there is a large gap between the total value of the house.
The fifth category is the investment speculation tenant who uses leverage to the extreme. House prices have maintained a trend of only rising and not falling for many years, attracting countless investment speculators to participate in speculation. Among these investment tenants, the people who really have the ability to come up with the full amount of speculation can be said to be very few, and most of them rely on bank loans for speculation. Especially during the period of rapid rise in housing prices, some people even reluctantly made a down payment through debt, and the monthly payment is alternately returned by demolishing the eastern wall to make up for the western wall with multiple credit cards. However, under the high-pressure situation that the increase in house prices did not meet the investment standards, and the state strictly investigated the illegal flow of operating loans, consumer loans and credit loans into the property market, these people immediately appeared in their original form. According to the data released by Alifa Auction House, in 2017, the number of listings of the platform was only more than 9,000 sets, but by 2021, it had reached 1.68 million sets, a full increase of more than 180 times in just 4 years. Behind the surge in legal auction houses, there is a direct causal relationship with the investment in speculative houses and passengers using high leverage to speculate in houses; about 80% of legal auction houses are caused by supply cuts, which is caused by some people who do not have the ability to buy houses and force themselves into the property market. This is still in the case of a stable rise in house prices, poor financing channels, there are so many people exposed to the original form, once the property tax is fully levied, and a lot of expenditure has been added, I don't know how many leverage will be used to the extreme, and finally because of the pressure of the loan can not bear the pressure of people have joined the team of abandoned houses and supply, think it is really terrible.
Summary: In the above 5 types of groups that are easy to be "injured", some people are worthy of sympathy, and some people really blame others, but the property tax will come sooner or later, which is the historical trend of the development of the property market, and it is also a common practice in all countries in the world, and it is not worth exclaiming. As long as more ordinary people do not participate in speculation, they naturally do not have to worry about how much the real estate tax will have on their lives, because the main purpose of the real estate tax is to adjust the income distribution of all classes in society and achieve common prosperity for all employees, but also to open up another way for local governments to convert the fiscal revenue model, as well as to guide the people to buy houses, let the house return to the residential attributes, and let the house price remain stable for a long time, rather than to suppress the market and reduce house prices. Therefore, the introduction and implementation of property taxes in the future will only promote the healthy and sustainable development of the property market, and will not lead to sharp fluctuations in house prices.