The Chinese women's football team won the Asian Cup last weekend after a gap of 16 years, which suddenly became the biggest news in the Chinese sports world, and the heat lasted for several days. In recent times, I am afraid that only the new sports idol Gu Ailingneng, who won gold in the Winter Olympic Games on the 8th, competed with the women's football team. Now that a few days have passed since the women's football team won the championship, everyone's excitement has passed, and the women's football team will return to a "nobody's interest" state in the next period of time.
Through this Asian Cup, the Chinese women's football team won the place in the 2023 Women's World Cup jointly hosted by Australia and New Zealand. So, what kind of achievements will the Chinese women's football team produce next year? The author wants to pour cold water here - not optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese team, and the group qualification is still a more realistic goal. Next, I will briefly explain the reasons for not being optimistic about the Chinese women's football team.
First, the overall level of Asian women's football is lagging behind, and the persuasion of the Chinese team to win the championship is limited
The pinnacle of Asian women's football came in the 2011 World Cup final when Japan struggled to beat the United States to win the championship. In the following 11 years, the level of Asian women's football has not improved, but has continued to decline, and it has been widened by European teams. As the former world champion, the Japanese team is like this, and the Chinese team is even more so. After all, the talent reserves of The Chinese women's football team in recent years, as well as the development of domestic women's football leagues, as well as the degree of international football in the Ocean are not as good as those of neighboring countries.
The real territory of Asian women's football is essentially concentrated in East Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. In Southeast Asian countries and West Asian countries, because of physical conditions and national conditions, the development of women's football sports is extremely limited. But even so, the Philippines and Vietnam have also scored in the World Cup next year's expansion to the round of 32, which shows that the level of Asian women's football is indeed not high.
Therefore, the Chinese women's football team won the Asian Cup is naturally worthy of happiness, but it must not be too happy, thinking that the Chinese team has found the momentum of the "sonorous rose" of that year. Far from it, the 2019 Women's World Cup and last year's Tokyo Olympic Women's Football Competition, the results of Asian teams are very unsatisfactory, even if they can break through from the group is also a round of travel level, in the face of the rapid development of European women's football, and has always been very strong North American top two (the United States, Canada), basically there is no strength.
The three teams in the Asian region of the last World Cup advanced to the round of 16, except for Australia and Norway, which lost to their opponents from Europe in 90 minutes, except for Australia and Norway, which lost to their opponents from Europe. China scored only one goal against South Africa in the group stage in 4 games, and the offensive firepower was worrying.
At last year's Olympic Games, the women's football competition was 3 groups and 12 teams, Japan and Australia were promoted as the 3rd in the group with better results, and the Chinese women's football team, which was not normal in terms of selection and employment, was not out of the group stage, leaving a very humiliating event. In fact, even if the Chinese women's football team can use people normally and play normally like the Asian Cup in the Olympic Games, it is likely to only get 3 points from Zambia, as the third place in the group to compare the results, it is not inferior to Japan and Australia. In other words, in the Olympic women's football competition with fewer teams and more streamlined events, competing for the third place in the group is the most reasonable positioning for Asian women's football and Chinese women's football at present.
Second, China's women's football team is seriously aging
The reserve talent of the women's football team is seriously insufficient, although the Asian Cup team has two major opponents, but it still can't see any advantage from the scene, on the one hand, the players of the Chinese team are biting a force, on the other hand, it is also because the injury of the team's ace player Wang Shuang affected the original tactical deployment of the Chinese team, and hit the opponent by surprise. In short, the Chinese team won very well, but it cannot be considered that the level of the Chinese women's football team beat Japan and South Korea in seconds.
And it should be noted that the average age of the Chinese team has reached 29.3 years old, which is similar to the men's football team, higher than the Japanese and South Korean teams. In the semi-final against Japan, the average Chinese team player was 27 years old, while the opponent was only 24.2 years old, a gap of nearly 3 years.
In fact, the average age of the Chinese women's team to participate in the 2019 World Cup is 26 years old, in other words, 3 years have passed, and the age structure of our lineup has not been updated. It can be seen that the Chinese talent reserve is not only a problem encountered by the men's football team, the women's football team can be said to be more serious, after all, there are fewer people playing football among girls. If not enough fresh blood can be replenished in the next year and a half, then the average age of women's football teams playing in the World Cup next year is more than 30 years old, which is not a fantasy.
What are the effects of an aging lineup? At the level of the world's strongest teams, the united states and Brazil have faced such problems in the recent women's world championships, and as the rhythm of the women's high-level teams in the world becomes more and more men's, the physical functions brought about by the increase in age have decreased, and the impact on the game is more serious, so that the Chinese team will face greater difficulties. This is not something that can be simply compensated by the so-called "women's football spirit".
Third, the possibility of "man-made disasters" cannot be ignored
In Chinese football, both men and women cannot jump out of a reincarnation. Our team could not produce satisfactory results, and the reason was "four points, six points of man-made disaster". In the process of the development of Chinese football, many actions that do not follow the development law of football can be regarded as an important part of the "man-made disaster". The "man-made disaster" caused by the change of coach, the strength of the team members can not be selected for the list, etc., so that the original level is not high further reduced, can not play the ideal results is also a normal phenomenon.
Objectively speaking, we can't say how superb Shui Qingxia is, but she should be the most suitable coach for this women's football team at present, and her presence can allow the players to exert their due strength, keep the bottom line, and even stimulate 120% of the combat effectiveness. This is essentially the case with the women's soccer team's consecutive reversals over Japan and South Korea in the Asian Cup. However, it should be noted that we should not simply blame it on the so-called "spirit", the essence of which is the level of women's football teams in China, Japan and South Korea, and the gap in the status of the game at that time was not as large as the gap between Asia and Europe and the United States. In the same level of competition, spiritual power can play its auxiliary role. Over-exaggerating the so-called "spirit" is just an escapist approach, making people gradually forget the problems of Chinese football.
In addition, when the Chinese women's football team has good results, will there be some "invisible hands" that will be foolish? We can't deny this possibility, if it is no longer Shui Qingxia who will lead the team to participate in the Women's World Cup, but another coach, I am afraid it will be another scenery. And that, most likely, will depend on this summer's East Asian Cup performance.
Anyway, let's see what happens in the next year and a half.
Text/Supine Braces - Yangyuan Zhang