With a long history of more than 4,000 years and one of the "Nine Prefectures in China", Xuzhou was once a low-key development "northwest powerhouse" in Jiangsu Province, and in recent years it has been repeatedly pushed to the forefront of some topics.
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the national real estate market was once relatively weak, but Xuzhou received attention because of the rapid rebound in house prices and the rise of the whole country. However, in the past 2021, Xuzhou's real estate market witnessed what is the "double day of ice and fire", "how fiercely it rose" in the first half of the year, and "how badly it fell" in the second half of the year.
As GDP enters the 800 billion mark, this transportation hub city with a special geographical location and the name of "the central city of the Huaihai Economic Zone" has reached a new stage of development and must rethink its own economic development path.
2017 was a watershed year for house prices
Speaking of Xuzhou's real estate market, Zhang Chu, a veteran marketer who has been working in Xuzhou for more than 10 years, believes that 2017 is a watershed. That year, the State Council approved Xuzhou as the "Central City of the Huaihai Economic Zone".
"Before 2016, Xuzhou was in a real estate downturn for a long time. Since 2017, the concept of 'central city of Huaihai Economic Zone' has been proposed, Xuzhou has begun to open up and develop, and housing prices have taken off. Zhang Chu said.
When it comes to the Huaihai Economic Zone, we have to first understand the extremely special geographical location of Xuzhou.
Because it belongs to both "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai" and is located north of the Qinling-Huaihe river demarcation line, Xuzhou is the only city in the country that is both heated and free of shipping.
Completely different from the traditional perception of Wu Nong's soft language and gentle water town in Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, located in the northwest of Jiangsu, is geographically a genuine northern city. In terms of transportation, Xuzhou has been a fortress connecting the north and south of China since ancient times, so the folk customs of Xuzhou have both north and south characteristics.
The dialects of Jiangsu Province are mainly divided into two major factions: Wu is spoken in the Suxichang region, and Jianghuai guan dialect is spoken in Nanjing, Zhenjiang and most northern Jiangsu cities. Only Xuzhou and the Ganyu area of Lianyungang speak the Central Plains dialect, and they love to use words such as "俺" and "Zhong" every day. Geographically, Xuzhou is also quite close to Shandong and Henan, and more than 200 kilometers to the north is the Jilu Guan dialect area, and more than 200 kilometers to the west is the Central Plains Guan dialect area. In terms of diet, unlike Jiangnan cuisine and Huaiyang cuisine, Xuzhou cuisine is salty and spicy, and the taste is closer to the north.
Because of its inextricable relationship with Shandong, Xuzhou is often ridiculed as an "important town in Shandong".
But in fact, the development of Xuzhou since ancient times is inseparable from the whole of Jiangsu. It is an important transportation hub connecting the north and south, the ancient Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal runs through the whole territory, when the early Qing Dynasty implemented the provincial system, Xuzhou was assigned to Jiangnan Province, and after the Qing Kangxi Period divided Jiangnan Province into Jiangsu and Anhui, Xuzhou continued to be classified under the name of Jiangsu.
Due to its special geographical location, Xuzhou is also a place where soldiers must fight, from Liu Bang and Xiang Yu in the late Qin and early Han Dynasties to Chen Yi, Su Yu and other military experts in modern times, all of whom have been in Xuzhou. After the Battle of Huaihai in 1948, Xuzhou was temporarily assigned to Shandong, and only three years later it returned to the embrace of Jiangsu.
After the founding of New China, Xuzhou is still a transportation fortress, there is a Beijing-Shanghai railway and Longhai railway cross intersecting, in Jiangsu Province population, economy are in the forefront, before the reform and opening up in 1978, Xuzhou's GDP is second only to Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong. "Until the 1990s, when other cities in northern Jiangsu wanted to go to Beijing or other northern cities, they had to transit through Xuzhou first." Zhang Chu said.
However, with the deepening of reform and opening up, in the past 20 years, other cities in Jiangsu Province have gradually embraced the thighs of Shanghai or Nanjing, and Xuzhou, which is located in the northwest, seems to be unable to catch up with any circle in Jiangsu.
Therefore, Xuzhou wants to use its geographical advantages connecting the four provinces to strengthen the "Huaihai Economic Zone" and win over the "poor brothers" of the four provinces, and itself becomes the core city of the economic zone.
In 2017, the Jiangsu delegation of the National People's Congress jointly proposed a bill calling for the implementation of the Huaihai Economic Zone planning work at the national level as soon as possible, so that the development of the region can be elevated to a national strategy. In the same year, the State Council approved Xuzhou as the "Central City of Huaihai Economic Zone". In 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Development Plan for the Huaihe River Ecological and Economic Belt", which pointed out the exact scope of the Huaihai Economic Zone, including Xuzhou, Lianyungang and Suqian in Jiangsu, Suzhou and Huaibei in Anhui, Shangqiu in Henan, Zaozhuang, Jining, Linyi, Heze and other cities in Shandong, which proposed to enhance the radiation driving capacity of Xuzhou regional central cities.
As a central city, Xuzhou has opened and operated 3 subway lines in the past three consecutive years. In the construction of high-speed rail, Xuzhou is also a communication between the north and the south, connecting the east and the west, in recent years, the Zheng-Xu high-speed railway, the Xusu-Huaiyan railway, and the Lianxu high-speed railway have been built successively, and Xuzhou continues to serve as an important transportation hub city.
Xuzhou, which has become the central city of the "Huaihai Economic Zone", has also taken advantage of the concept of regional center in its real estate market, and most of the real estate has played relevant billboards, hoping to generate adsorption capacity for surrounding cities.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the property market took the lead in rebounding
After 2017, to what extent did Xuzhou's housing prices take off?
At the end of 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference first proposed "housing and not speculation", after which the means of regulation and control in various places continued to become stricter, and most cities saw house prices rise and fall, but Xuzhou came out of a continuous upward curve, until the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the overall weak real estate market, Xuzhou's increase became particularly prominent, becoming a representative city of house price rebound.
In September 2020, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics to monitor changes in house prices, Xuzhou ranked first in the country. By February 2021, the month-on-month increase was still the highest in the country.
As of the first half of 2021, Xuzhou's house prices have risen for 5 consecutive years, and the increase in new houses and second-hand houses has led the country.
Zhang Chu told reporters that xuzhou new houses have risen by about 80% in the past 5 years, and by the high level in the second half of 2020, the average price of new projects in the urban area exceeds 20,000 yuan / square meter, and more and more "30,000 +" real estate in the new market. At that time, Xuzhou also poured in a lot of foreign speculators, some people were for the prospect of "the central city of the Huaihai Economic Zone", some people thought that many other cities had fallen, but the northern Jiangsu cities represented by Xuzhou only rose and did not fall, simply gambled.
Wu Peng, a native of Xuzhou, recalled that before 2016, Xuzhou house prices have been at a low level, new real estate is not very easy to sell, the price of new houses within the second ring road of the city center is 4000-6000 yuan / square meter, and the better real estate is about 10,000 yuan / square meter. By 2020, the average price of new houses has reached 12,000 yuan / square meter, and the top real estate is above 30,000 yuan / square meter.
As an old real estate marketer, Zhang Chu smelled danger when the market was still hot in the second half of 2020. "The whole market has a bubble, many factors have stimulated the rapid price surge, and it is risky to buy high prices."
In addition to the eye-catching regional economic concept of "the central city of the Huaihai Economic Zone", there are also multiple stimuli of the land market, shed reform, and speculation in housing.
From 2020 to 2021, Xuzhou's "land kings" have frequently emerged, constantly refreshing the historical record of the land market. In August 2020, after 147 rounds of bidding, Nanjing Yiju Real Estate won the plot of East China Machinery Factory in xuzhou city center, with a floor price of 16,900 yuan / square meter, and more than 10 plots with a floor price of more than 10,000 yuan in Xuzhou that year.
In April 2021, Midea Real Estate won the plot of Xuzhou East Lake New Town for 3.55 billion yuan, setting a record for the total price of Xuzhou, with a floor price of 9366 yuan / square meter. It can be compared that in 2018, When midea real estate also took land in the East Lake New Town area, the floor price was only 2125 yuan / square meter. In just three years, land prices in the same area have soared by 340%, which shows that the land market in Xuzhou has risen more violently than the property market.
The fierce competition in the land market stems from the optimism of housing enterprises on strong third-tier cities at that time, Xuzhou is the representative of "strong third-tier", suitable for housing enterprises to take the "fast turnover" method, in 2017-2020, most private housing enterprises prefer such markets, thinking that it is more rewarding than investing in first- and second-tier cities. Guangdong housing enterprise Midea real estate is one of the earliest foreign real estate enterprises in Xuzhou, since 2010 in Xuzhou to get land, the deepest rooted. Since 2017, those "real estate dark horses" have begun to enter Xuzhou, such as Zhejiang real estate enterprises Zhongliang, Fujian housing enterprises Zhongjun and so on. In 2018, the central enterprise Jinmao also entered Xuzhou, and in that year, it took 3 projects in one go, and the Jinmaofu products built in Xuzhou became the price ceiling of Xuzhou.
In addition to the stimulation from the land market, the monetization of shed reform has also played an important role in the rise in housing prices in Xuzhou. In 2015, Xuzhou's residential deindustrialization cycle exceeded 21 months, in order to reduce inventory, Xuzhou encouraged demolition residents to choose cash compensation and give a 10% incentive, in 2018, the real estate market clearance cycle has dropped to about 4 months. In 2017, Xuzhou's shantytown reform plan was only 19,117 households and 2.69 million square meters, which was greatly expanded to 21.27 million square meters in 2018, with a shantytown reform target of 16.8 million square meters in 2019 and 12.76 million square meters in 2020.
From 2018 to 2020, for three consecutive years, Xuzhou shed reform target is more than 10 million square meters, whether it is the use of monetization resettlement or late physical resettlement, objectively squeezed out a large number of home buyers to the real estate market, the time is also in line with the era of the great development of the Xuzhou property market.
However, in Xuzhou, where housing prices have soared, infrastructure construction has been the main driving force for economic growth in recent years, and projects such as elevated highways, subways and old city transformation have been launched in turn, and the growth of emerging economic transformation is weak, and the employment attraction of high-end population is small. "After all, Xuzhou's per capita income is low, and its economy is not as good as that of southern Jiangsu, so I think when Xuzhou's housing prices reach a high level, they have already entered a bottleneck period." Zhang Chu said.
The school district room dropped by 9,000 yuan / square meter
In the second half of 2021, Xuzhou has become one of the cities with the most price reductions for new projects.
According to Kerry statistics, in the second half of last year, the prices of some real estate projects and some plates in Xuzhou fell again and again, "there is no minimum, only lower.".
For example, Xuzhou's "Hanwang Tingquan Town" project, last July, September continuous price reduction of 5%, after October is a big price reduction, by the end of the year, has been from the original price of 12900 yuan / square meter to 7740 yuan / square meter, the overall decline reached 40%. The Shanhe Longyin project decreased from 16675 yuan / square meter to 12500 yuan / square meter, a drop of up to 25%.
In terms of plates, taking the Damiao plate of Xuzhou Economic Development Zone as an example, the half-year decline of many projects is between 6% and 9%.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of December 2021, the price of newly built commercial housing in Xuzhou has fallen for 4 consecutive months, and second-hand housing has fallen for 6 consecutive months.
According to the statistics of the chain home and Anjuke website, as of the end of January this year, the number of second-hand houses listed for sale exceeded 30,000 sets, and since the second half of last year, this number has risen month by month, but the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Xuzhou is declining, and many owners are selling at a reduced price.
Wu Peng told reporters that since the second half of last year, intermediaries in the circle of friends have often sent "urgent sale" and "selling" information on real estate. "Once I talked to the agent about a house with a starting price of more than 1.5 million, the location is more core, and then I talked about 1.25 million, and the landlord was willing to sell."
In Xuzhou, a number of once hot school district housing communities, the current decline in transaction prices is also very obvious. For example, the second-hand house of the new urban talent home, on December 25 last year, sold a set of more than 80 square meters of housing, the unit price was only 18855 yuan / square meter, compared with the transaction price of 27778 yuan / square meter in March 2021, less than 9 months down nearly 9000 yuan / square meter.
Zhang Chu believes that those speculators who bought high-priced plates in 2020 must now be trapped. "I have always believed that once the property market is too hot, it will inevitably cause regulatory attention, and the regulation of the property market will also follow, and the economic development of Xuzhou itself will not support high house prices." From the second half of 2020, new projects may not be sold out at the opening, facing certain pressure. Therefore, whether it is buying a house or buying land, it must be done according to demand and ability. ”
In 2021, Xuzhou's GDP has made a new breakthrough in history, passing the 800 billion mark, ranking 6th in Jiangsu Province, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and it is promising to sprint to the trillion club, and there are only 24 cities in the country with a GDP of more than one trillion yuan. Now, with the completion of large-scale infrastructure construction and shed reform, the route of stimulating the economy with real estate in the past may no longer work. As an important node city of the national "Belt and Road" and an international new energy base, Xuzhou, with a long history of more than 4,000 years, needs to explore a new way to develop the economy under the premise of stable housing prices.
(At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Chu and Wu Peng are pseudonyms)
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