Force Li Yang
Published by China Economist
summary
The "13th Five-Year Plan" period coincided with the stage when socialism with Chinese characteristics entered a new era, the main contradictions in society changed, and the economy shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and coincided with serious impacts such as Sino-US economic and trade frictions and the new crown epidemic. In the face of risks and challenges, China maintained its strategic focus during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, implemented the new development concept, adhered to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, focused on doing a good job in the "three removals, one reduction and one supplement", resolutely fought the three major battles, resolved many structural contradictions to a great extent, and maintained stable and rapid economic growth and overall domestic stability. Most of the main goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan were completed ahead of schedule or are expected to be completed on time, the reform has been accelerated, the systems have become more mature and stereotyped, and the foundation for high-quality development has been more consolidated.
keyword
The 13th Five-Year Plan; supply-side structural reform; high-quality development; and the 14th Five-Year Plan
* Corresponding Author: Force, Email: [email protected]
The 13th Five-Year Plan is the last five-year plan to win the battle to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. At the same time, the "13th Five-Year Plan" period is also a stage in which socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, the main contradictions in society have changed, and the economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development. However, at the beginning of the "13th Five-Year Plan", when economic development entered a new normal and the structural contradictions accumulated by the traditional development model intensified, the "three-phase superposition" effect not only led to a downturn in economic growth, but also accumulated serious risks in the social, ecological and other fields. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China encountered economic and trade frictions provoked by the United States and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the unprecedented challenges made the work more difficult.
In the face of the complex situation, China has maintained its strategic focus, implemented the new development concept of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing", adhered to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, focused on doing a good job in the work of "three removals, one reduction and one supplement", resolutely fought the three major battles of preventing and resolving major risks, precise poverty alleviation, and pollution prevention and control, resolved many structural contradictions to a great extent, maintained stable and rapid economic growth and overall domestic stability, and completed or expected to complete most of the main goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan ahead of schedule or expected to be completed on time. Reform has been accelerated, various systems have become more mature and stereotyped, and the foundation for high-quality development has been more consolidated.
First, the completion of the main indicators of the "13th Five-Year Plan"
As of 2019, most of the main goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan have been completed or are close to completion, and a few goals may be difficult to complete due to the new crown epidemic and other reasons, but the characteristics of high economic quality are more obvious.
In terms of economic development, the gross domestic product maintained an average annual growth rate of 6.7% in 2016-2019, and by the end of 2019, the gross domestic product reached 87.7 trillion yuan at constant prices in 2015, and to achieve the target of 92.7 trillion yuan, it is necessary to maintain a growth rate of more than 5.7% in 2020. This target would not have been a big problem, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the GDP in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 5.8% year-on-year, which caused great difficulties for the completion of the 5.7% target for the whole year. Although the economic aggregate target is difficult to achieve, other economic development goals have been achieved well: the urbanization rate target of the permanent population has been completed beyond expectations, and the urbanization rate of the household registration population and the labor productivity target of the whole population are certainly achieved. However, the proportion of added value in the service industry may be difficult to achieve the target due to the impact of the epidemic.
In terms of innovation-driven, the intensity of R&D funding has not exceeded 2.2% in the past four years, and it is likely to reach the 2.5% planning target in 2020. However, the number of invention patents per 10,000 people has been achieved ahead of schedule, and the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress reached 58.5% in 2018 and is expected to reach 60% in 2020.
In terms of people's livelihood and well-being, the growth of per capita disposable income of residents, the number of new jobs in cities and towns, and the housing transformation of urban shantytowns have all completed the target ahead of schedule. The number of rural poor has fallen from 55.75 million at the end of 2015 to 5.51 million at the end of 2019, reducing poverty by more than 10 million people per year. In 2020, the central government proposed a decisive battle to win the battle against poverty, and the remaining 5.51 million poor people are expected to be lifted out of poverty by 2020.
The improvement of resources and environment is obvious. The utilization rate of resources has increased, the water consumption of 10,000 yuan of GDP has greatly exceeded the target, and the proportion of energy consumption per unit of GDP and non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption can complete the target. Pollution has been curbed, and the ecological environment has improved significantly. Forest cover is able to meet targets, air and water quality has been significantly exceeded (see Table 1).
Second, the economic structure of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the structural reform of the supply side has achieved remarkable results, structural contradictions have been greatly alleviated, various systems have become more mature and stereotyped, and the foundation for high-quality development has been more consolidated.
(1) Eliminate backward production capacity and upgrade the industrial structure
The 13th Five-Year Plan began with a serious overcapacity. In the first quarter of 2016, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was only 72.9%, of which the coal and steel industries were only 61% and 68%, both of which were the lowest points since 2013 (see Figure 1). Many production capacities have high pollution and high energy consumption problems, and it is imperative to reduce production capacity. However, due to the issues involving finance, employment, and liabilities, local governments and banks have artificially intervened in market-oriented de-capacity, maintaining enterprise operations through subsidies and increasing loans, thus forming some zombie enterprises, squeezing out market share and factor resources, aggravating industry-wide losses, and triggering international trade frictions such as anti-dumping and countervailing. Resolving overcapacity has become the only way for China's manufacturing industry to get out of the quagmire and move towards high-end.
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China adhered to the principle of market pushback, enterprise mainstay, local organizations and central support, comprehensively used market mechanisms, economic means, rule of law means and necessary administrative means, increased policy guidance, strictly controlled new production capacity, resolutely eliminated backward production capacity, and orderly exited excess capacity. The key areas of de-capacity are steel, coal, coal power, cement, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum and other industries. For steel and coal, in 2016, the central government clarified the specific goal of reducing and eliminating excess capacity, decomposed into various localities and central enterprises, and issued special awards and supplementary funds, fiscal and taxation, employee resettlement, environmental protection and other supporting documents to form a three-dimensional policy framework system. Since 2017, coal power has also been included in the key areas of administrative capacity reduction. For the cement, glass, electrolytic aluminum and other raw material industries, it is mainly based on environmental protection means and market-oriented mechanisms to reduce production capacity, through environmental protection to control output, improve emission standards, etc., forcing the industry to self-clear.
The results of capacity reduction have been remarkable, the utilization rate of industrial capacity in the country has rebounded, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry has been alleviated, and the operating conditions have improved, laying the foundation for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. Iron and steel, coal and other industries to reduce production capacity has achieved substantial results. From 2016 to 2018, steel and coal reduced and eliminated backward production capacity by 150 million tons and 810 million tons respectively, and coal power eliminated and shut down more than 20 million kilowatts of backward units, all of which completed the "13th Five-Year Plan" de-capacity target ahead of schedule. According to the data of the fourth economic census released in 2019, compared with the results of the third census in 2013, at the end of 2018, there were a total of 2556 industrial enterprises above designated size with raw coal production, a decrease of 47.7% from the end of 2013; of which 2237 small raw coal production enterprises with an annual output of less than 900,000 tons, a significant decrease of 2290 from 2013. The number of legal person units in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 22,000, down 42.0% from the end of 2013, and the number of employees fell by 47.5%, accounting for 1.2 percentage points of the total manufacturing industry, which was the industry with the largest decline in the manufacturing industry. Capacity utilization rates in industries such as steel and coal have also continued to rebound rapidly, gradually returning to a reasonable range. 20
16 Ministry of Ecology and Environment: "National Surface Water and Ambient Air Quality Status in 2019", this paper selects the average data from January to December 2019, and the http://www.mee.gov.cn/hjzl/shj/qgdbszlzk/202002/P020200220742981170464.pdf
17 Calculated based on the Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development 2016-2019.
18 Ministry of Ecology and Environment: "National Surface Water and Ambient Air Quality Status in 2019", this paper selects the average data from January to December 2019, and http://www.mee.gov.cn/hjzl/shj/qgdbszlzk/202002/P020200220742981170464.pdf
19 Ibid.
20 Official website of the National Bureau of Statistics: "China's Manufacturing Industry Towards High-end", http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/202001/t20200104_1721287.html
In order to force the "two high" industries to reduce production capacity, the ecological environmental protection system has been further improved. In addition to continuing to strictly implement the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan and the new Environmental Protection Law formulated during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the State Council issued the Soil Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2016, establishing the "three major pollution prevention and control action plans" of air, water and soil. In order to effectively curb the deterioration of the ecological environment, China has carried out vertical management reform of environmental protection monitoring institutions below the provincial level and strengthened the independence of environmental protection monitoring; at the same time, the central environmental protection supervision system has been implemented, and the Central Environmental Protection Supervision Group has been established under the leadership of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, with the participation of relevant leaders of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Central Organization Department, and on behalf of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, environmental protection inspections and inspections have been carried out on behalf of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to carry out environmental protection inspections and inspections of provincial party committees and governments and key enterprises to promote the implementation of the main responsibility. In June 2019, the "Regulations on the Work of the Central Ecological Environmental Protection Inspector" was issued and implemented, which is the first intra-party regulation in the field of ecological environmental protection, which will play an important role in promoting the in-depth development of ecological environmental protection inspectors in accordance with the law.
While eliminating backward production capacity and strictly protecting the ecology, the "13th Five-Year Plan" period accelerated the cultivation of new kinetic energy. The "three new economies" of new industries, new formats and new business models are developing rapidly. In order to comprehensively monitor the changes in the development of emerging economies, the National Bureau of Statistics began to measure and release the "three new" economic added value and new momentum index of economic development in 2018.
In 2018, the added value of China's "three new" economies accounted for 16.1% of GDP. The growth rate at current prices was 12.2%, 2.5 percentage points higher than the current GDP growth rate in the same period. In 2018, the secondary industry of the "three new" economy developed rapidly, and the growth rate of the current price of added value reached 15.1%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over the previous year. 21 Although the proportion of the added value of the "three new" economy is still relatively low, the development momentum is strong, which to a certain extent makes up for the impact of the weakening of traditional kinetic energy and plays an important role in the stable operation of the economy (see Table 2).
21 Official website of the National Bureau of Statistics: "In 2018, the added value of the mainland's "three new" economy was equivalent to 16.1% of G D P" h t tp://www.s t a t s.g o v.c n/tj sj/ zxfb/201907/t20190727_1682335.html
The new momentum index of economic development shows that in 2014, it was 100, and the new momentum index of China's economic development from 2015 to 2018 was 123.5, 156.7, 210.1 and 270.3, respectively, an increase of 23.5%, 26.9%, 34.1% and 28.7% over the previous year, showing a sustained and rapid growth momentum. Among them, the five sub-indices of economic vitality, innovation-driven, network economy, transformation and upgrading, and knowledge capacity have all improved to varying degrees (see Table 3).
According to the data of the Fourth National Economic Census, the development of China's manufacturing industry has steadily moved towards the middle and high end of the value chain. At the end of 2018, there were 34,000 and 133,000 legal person units of high-tech and equipment manufacturing enterprises above designated size, respectively, an increase of 24.8% and 12.2% over the end of 2013, respectively; the total growth rate of assets was more than 50%, and the proportion of operating income in manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 4.0 and 4.5 percentage points respectively compared with 2013. The pace of transfer of labor and capital to advanced manufacturing industries such as high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing has accelerated. At the end of 2018, the proportion of employees in the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry in the manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 3-5 percentage points compared with 2013, and the proportion of total assets increased by 6-7 percentage points. Strategic emerging industries have gathered and grown, becoming a new engine for the development of the manufacturing industry. In 2018, there were 66,000 enterprises engaged in the production of strategic emerging industries in industries above designated size in the country, accounting for 17.7% of the number of industrial enterprises above designated size, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over the previous year; the added value of industrial strategic emerging industries accounted for 21.2% of the added value of industries above designated size, an increase of 3.5 percentage points over the previous year. Emerging industrial products unleash growth potential. In 2018, the number of new product development projects of manufacturing enterprises above designated size reached 550,000 items, an increase of 56.3% over 2013, digitalization, intelligence, automation equipment and high-end information electronic products have become new growth points, new products in line with the direction of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading continue to emerge, and the annual output of new energy vehicles, smart phones, industrial robots and civilian drones has reached 1.202 million units, 1.34 billion units, 183,000 sets and 3.088 million units, respectively. 22
Even under the impact of the epidemic, new momentum is an area where recovery is relatively fast. In March 2020, PM I in high-tech manufacturing was higher than overall. From the perspective of key areas, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industry is 55.8%, 54.5% and 52.0%, of which the PMI of high-tech manufacturing is 3.8 percentage points higher than that of the overall manufacturing industry. Products such as 233D printing equipment, monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon and smart watches continue to maintain rapid growth. The economic performance related to the Internet is relatively active, and e-commerce, online learning, remote consultation, etc., have developed relatively quickly. It can be seen that the epidemic has not changed the trend of rapid growth of new momentum.
22 Official website of the National Bureau of Statistics: "China's Manufacturing Industry Towards Mid-to-High-end", http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/202001/t20200104_1721287.html.
23 Official website of the National Bureau of Statistics: "The resumption of work and production of enterprises has accelerated significantly in March The purchasing managers' index has rebounded month-on-month in february, http://www.stats.
gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/202003/t20200331_1735878.html。
(2) Improve the financial system and resolve major risks
After 2008, the leverage ratio of the Chinese economy rose rapidly. Total leverage in the non-financial sector rose from 141.3% in 2008 to 243.3% in 2015. Demand for debt financing from businesses and local governments is rising rapidly, but China's financial system is dominated by bank-led indirect financing, with insufficient direct financing channels. Limited by regulatory indicators, banks are unable to meet their financing needs through on-balance sheet channels. In 2012, the reform of financial liberalization allowed banks to circumvent supervision and expand the scale of financing by developing "shadow banks" such as intermediate and off-balance sheet businesses. The ever-expanding shadow banking system continues to transfuse blood to local financing platforms and overcapacity state-owned enterprises, which not only leads to an increase in leverage, risk accumulation, and increased vulnerability of the financial system, but also delays the entire process of de-capacity, and comprehensive financial supervision is imminent.
Therefore, the 13th Five-Year Plan proposes to strengthen the construction of a financial macro-prudential management system and reduce the leverage ratio. Since 2016, the central bank has begun to implement the macro-prudential assessment system (MPA) assessment, including banks' off-balance sheet wealth management into the broad credit assessment, cutting off the path for banks to evade regulatory indicators through assets on and off-balance sheet, and controlling the disorderly expansion of off-balance sheet scale from the total amount.
In April 2017, Xi Jinping first mentioned financial security at the collective study of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee. In July, the National Financial Work Conference was held, announcing the establishment of the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council to strengthen financial supervision and coordination and make up for regulatory shortcomings. In December, the Central Economic Work Conference made the prevention and resolution of major risks the first of the three major battles in the next three years. In April 2018, the former China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission were merged to form the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and in the same month, the new asset management regulations were issued.
Under the guidance of the top-level design, a new round of stricter financial supervision has been fully launched, focusing on unifying regulatory standards, eliminating regulatory arbitrage, rectifying the off-balance sheet and shadow banking system of banks, breaking rigid payment, and standardizing the operation of capital pools, thereby guiding financial institutions to return to their main business. At the same time, the "two highs and one leftover" and real estate, which are preferred by shadow banking, are also more strictly restricted. The 2016 Central Economic Work Conference put forward the positioning of "housing and not speculation", coupled with the reduction of production capacity and the strict ecological environmental protection system, which curbed the influx of funds to real estate speculation and the "two highs and one leftover" industry, forcing funds to turn to support the development of the real economy
Financial supervision has compressed the financing channels of local governments, leading local governments to expand the scale of hidden debt through PPPs, government investment funds, and government purchase of services. In this regard, the Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Preventing and Resolving the Hidden Debt Risks of Local Governments and the Measures for the Accountability of Hidden Debts of Local Governments issued in 2018 have opened up the work of cleaning up hidden debts of local governments. At the same time, in view of the problem of local financial difficulties, we will speed up the issuance of local special bonds and alleviate financial pressure by "repairing open channels and blocking dark roads". In view of the problem of corporate debt risk, the regulator has smoothly and orderly disposed of high-risk institutions such as Baoshang Bank, properly resolved the partial and structural liquidity risks of small and medium-sized banks, and orderly disposed of the default events of private enterprise bonds, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks.
After efforts, the battle to prevent and resolve major financial risks has achieved phased results, and the high-speed growth momentum of macro leverage ratio has been initially curbed. In 2017, China's macro leverage ratio increased by only 2.4 percentage points, even decreased by 1.9 percentage points in 2018, and rose by 6.1 percentage points in 2019, with the leverage ratio of the real economy in the whole year being 245.4%. Despite the rebound, the increase in leverage in 2019 is also reasonable given that the downward pressure on the economy has increased due to the obvious rise in domestic and foreign risk challenges, and the rapid deleveraging speed in 2018 needs to be adjusted. Moreover, the 6 percentage point increase in leverage ratio in 2019 was only half of the average annual increase in leverage ratio from 2008 to 2016, and the cumulative increase in the last three quarters was only 1 percentage point, reflecting the determination and determination of the policy authorities to stabilize leverage. 24 Overall, financial risks have gradually shifted from the rapid accumulation of previous years to the high level of relief, which also makes room for China to deal with the new crown epidemic and hedge against the economic downturn in 2020.
24 Zhang Xiaojing and Liu Lei, "Leverage Ratio in 2020 Or Will Climb Limitedly- 2019 China Leverage Ratio Report", Economic Reference Daily, February 18, 2020
At the same time of strict supervision, financial reform and opening up has been accelerating. In the field of indirect financing, in order to enhance the degree of marketization of capital allocation, Chinese Minmin Bank reformed and improved the loan market interest rate (LPR) formation mechanism in August 2019, and abolished the administrative pricing of the loan benchmark interest rate. In the field of direct financing, in 2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange set up a science and technology innovation board and piloted the registration system. The revised Securities Law also came into force on 1 March 2020, comprehensively implementing the securities issuance registration system, strengthening supervision and investor protection, and laying an important institutional foundation for the improvement of the multi-level capital market system. In July 2019, the Financial Stability and Development Commission of the State Council issued 11 measures on further expanding the opening up of the financial industry, significantly relaxing the access conditions or business scope of bank wealth management subsidiaries, asset management, insurance, securities, funds, futures, ratings and other fields, accelerating the process of RMB internationalization, and promoting China's deep participation in global economic governance mechanism cooperation.
(iii) Coordinate regional development and coordinate spatial layout
Since the reform and opening up, China's regional economy has formed regional development strategies such as the large-scale development of the western region, the revitalization of old industrial bases such as the northeast region, and the rise of the central region, following the opening up of the eastern coast. However, the modern economy requires all regions to cooperate according to the division of labor according to resource endowments, and the traditional division of the four major plates has not met the needs of high-quality development.
Therefore, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, following the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the central government has successively put forward major national strategies such as the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region, the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. On the basis of the original four major plates, these leading regional development strategies place more emphasis on the efficiency of resource spatial allocation, and highlight the coordinated development of urban agglomerations and the leading role of central cities.
While upgrading the regional plate, the central government has expanded the scope of the free trade pilot zone. Following the establishment of four pilot free trade zones in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the members of the pilot free trade zones in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period have been continuously expanded, and 14 pilot free trade zones have been added to Liaoning, Zhejiang, Henan, Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hainan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangxi, Hebei, Yunnan and Heilongjiang. At present, China has 18 pilot free trade zones, which are spatially distributed throughout different regions such as coasts, inland areas and borders.
Shanghai and Shenzhen have become the vanguard of comprehensively deepening reform, promoting high-quality development and high-level opening up. In August 2019, the State Council decided to establish the Lingang New Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Lingang New Area not only expands the spatial scope of the former Shanghai Free Trade Zone, but also strives to become an important base for gathering talents at home and abroad to carry out international innovation and collaboration, an important hub for the overall development of onshore business and offshore business, an important springboard for enterprises to "go global" for development and growth, an important channel for better utilization of the two resources of the two markets, and an important test field for participating in international economic governance. In August 2019, the central government decided to support Shenzhen in building a pioneering demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and clarified its strategic positioning as a highland of high-quality development, a demonstration of a city ruled by law, a model of urban civilization, a benchmark of people's livelihood and happiness, and a pioneer of sustainable development.
In addition to the free trade zone, the national comprehensive reform pilot zone has also made full efforts. In May 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Key Tasks of the 2019 National Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone", which arranged reform tasks for the original 12 national comprehensive supporting reform pilot zones according to the characteristics of various localities, including: Shanghai Pudong New Area Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone, Tianjin Binhai New Area Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone, Chongqing Municipal Comprehensive Urban and Rural Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone, Chengdu Urban and Rural Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone, Wuhan City Circle "Two-Type" Social Construction Comprehensive Supporting Reform Pilot Zone, Changzhutan Urban Agglomeration "two-type" social construction comprehensive supporting reform pilot zone, Shenzhen comprehensive supporting reform pilot zone, Shenyang economic zone new industrialization comprehensive supporting reform pilot zone, Shanxi province resource-based economic transformation comprehensive supporting reform pilot zone, Zhejiang Province Yiwu city international trade comprehensive reform pilot zone, Xiamen city deepen cross-strait exchange and cooperation comprehensive supporting reform pilot zone, Heilongjiang province "two plains" modern agricultural comprehensive supporting reform pilot zone. This measure aims to further give full play to the demonstration, breakthrough and leading role of the pilot zone in comprehensively deepening reform, and form more replicable and generalizable institutional innovation results.
While grasping the development of key areas, the central government has carried out a reconstruction of the entire national land spatial plan during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. In the past, China's urbanization and regional development have always had chaotic and disorderly problems, and the industrial structure of various regions is similar, and the expansion of urban pie has made the practice of concepts such as division of labor, professional cooperation, economies of scale, resource conservation, environmental protection and ecology facing great difficulties. China urgently needs to proceed from the reality of more people and less land, in accordance with the idea of establishing the main functional areas and megacities, from the perspective of the rational layout of resources and environment carrying capacity and productive forces, do a good job in urban agglomeration development planning, integrate the chaotic urban pattern, take large cities as the core, integrate small and medium-sized cities and small towns, and cultivate and create a large urban circle that is in line with China's positioning in the global economy.
In May 2019, the "Several Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Establishing a Land Spatial Planning System and Supervising the Implementation" was issued and implemented, which scientifically planned production space, living space and ecological space, and integrated the original main functional area planning, land use planning, urban and rural planning and other spatial planning into unified land spatial planning to achieve "multi-planning". Land spatial planning has become the basic basis for all kinds of development, protection and construction activities, which makes it possible for China to "work to the end with one blueprint" in the future, and also lays an important foundation for streamlining planning approval, improving administrative efficiency, and optimizing the business environment.
(4) Respond to external shocks and raise the level of openness
In 2018, the United States launched economic and trade frictions with China, and the competition for international market share, global industrial chain and international investment in various countries has become more intense.
While firmly safeguarding national dignity and core interests, China has taken the initiative to promote a higher level of opening up. In 2018 and 2019, China held two China International Import Expo to independently reduce tariff levels and promote China to form a "world market" on the basis of the "world factory". Since 2018, China has stepped up its efforts to reduce taxes on its own. According to the "China Opening Up and Development Report 2019" released by the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, China's current trade weighted average tax rate is only 4.4%, which is far lower than that of other developing countries and close to the level of developed economies such as the European Union and the United States.
In order to adapt to the new situation of international competition and the needs of high-quality domestic development, China has begun to change from the opening up of commodities and factor flows to the opening up of rules and standards. In the past, China has been managing foreign investment by formulating the Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries, and the 2017 edition of the Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries includes 348 encouraged projects, 35 restricted projects and 28 prohibited projects. In order to be in line with international standards, China has implemented a nationwide negative list system for foreign investment since 2018, and the "restrictions" and "prohibitions" in the original guidance catalogue have been specifically listed as negative lists. In 2018 and 2019, China successively launched two editions of the Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List), and the "restrictions" and "prohibitions" of the 2019 version of the Negative List were reduced to 40, which was 23 articles smaller than the 2017 Guidance Catalogue. In the free trade zone, the negative list system has been implemented as early as 2013, and during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China has launched three editions of the "Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access in Pilot Free Trade Zones (Negative List)" in 2017, 2018 and 2019, with entries reduced from 190 in the 2013 edition to 37 in 2019, which is more open than the 40 negative list in the national version.
While fully implementing the negative list system for foreign investment, China has separately listed the "encouraged" projects in the original Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries (2017 Edition), launched the Catalogue of Encouraged Foreign Investment Industries (2019 Edition) in 2019, and added a catalogue of advantageous industries for foreign investment in the central and western regions to promote foreign investment in modern agriculture, advanced manufacturing, high-tech, energy conservation and environmental protection, modern service industries and other fields, so as to better play foreign investment in China's industrial development, technological progress, Positive role in structural optimization.
While encouraging and guiding foreign investment, China has accelerated the construction of foreign-related rule of law. In March 2019, the Foreign Investment Law of the People's Republic of China was deliberated and passed and came into force on January 1, 2020. As the basic law for China's use of foreign capital in the new era, the Foreign Investment Law of the People's Republic of China establishes the implementation of the pre-establishment national treatment plus negative list management system for foreign investors, which has become another major institutional achievement of China's international construction of a higher level of open economy.
Looking at the foreign economy during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, despite economic and trade frictions, China has maintained the growth momentum of international trade and foreign direct investment (see Figures 2 and 3), and China is further moving towards the goal of "world market" and international investment center.
(5) Accelerate the transformation of government functions and reform Party and state institutions
From 2013 to 2018, the corresponding government of the 12th National People's Congress accelerated the transformation of government functions in accordance with the idea of "decentralization and management". In the past five years, the administrative examination and approval matters of the State Council departments have been reduced by 44%, the examination and approval of non-administrative licenses has been completely terminated, the number of enterprise investment projects approved by the central government has decreased by 90%, the number of administrative examination and approval intermediary service matters has been reduced by 74%, and the number of professional qualification licenses and recognitions has been greatly reduced. The central government's pricing projects have shrunk by 80%, and the local government pricing projects have shrunk by more than 50%. The comprehensive reform of the commercial system such as industrial and commercial registration and registered capital has shortened the time for enterprises to start up by more than 1/3. Innovate and strengthen supervision during and after the event, implement "double random, one open", randomly select inspectors and inspection objects, and timely disclose the results of investigation and handling, thus improving the efficiency and fairness of supervision. 25
After 2018, government functions began to shift from a simple decentralization of "quantitative transformation" to an "institutional transformation" stage, using a more mature and stereotyped system to divide the boundary between the government and the market.
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the negative list system for market access was implemented nationwide. In 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the Negative List for Market Access (2018 Edition). The 26 list includes 4 "prohibited access" items and 147 "permitted access" items. For prohibited access matters, market entities are not allowed to enter; for licensed access matters, the market entities submit an application, and the administrative organs make a decision on whether to grant access in accordance with laws and regulations; for industries, fields, businesses, etc. other than the negative list of market access, all kinds of market entities can enter equally in accordance with law. In 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the Negative List for Market Access (2019 Edition), which includes 5 "prohibited access" matters and 126 "licensing access" items, which is 20 fewer than the 2018 version of the negative list. The negative list for market access includes all national market access management measures such as the original Catalogue for the Guidance of Industrial Structure Adjustment, the Catalogue of Investment Projects Approved by the Government, and the Catalogue of Prohibited Permits for Market Access in the Internet Industry, thus ensuring the authority and unity of the "National List", and creating conditions for clarifying the boundaries between the government and the market, stabilizing the expectations of market entities, and stimulating the vitality of entrepreneurial officers.
25 Chinese government website, 2018 Government Work Report, http://www.gov.cn/zhuanti/2018lh/2018zfgzbg/zfgzbg.htm.
26 The Negative List for Market Access applies to all investors at home and abroad, while the aforementioned Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) and the Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access in Pilot Free Trade Zones (Negative List) apply only to foreign investment.
At the same time as easing access, the government has strengthened supervision during and after the event. In 2016, the "three systems" of administrative law enforcement (administrative law enforcement publicity system, law enforcement whole process record system, and major law enforcement decision legal review system) carried out pilot work. In 2019, the "three systems" were fully implemented, which played a breakthrough role in promoting fair law enforcement.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the government also used information technology to improve service efficiency. In September 2016, the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion of "Internet + Government Services", proposing to build an "Internet + government services" system covering the whole country and handling one network by the end of 2020. As of the beginning of 2019, China has built 31 provincial-level government service platforms, and more than 30 State Council departments have opened departmental government service platforms. Among them, 20 regions have built an online government service system of provinces, cities and counties above the third level. Among the 22,152 provincial-level administrative licensing matters provided by 31 provincial-level platforms, 16,168 have already met the conditions for online online appointment pre-examination, accounting for 72.98%, and the average processing time limit has been compressed by 24.96%. 27
27 Chinese government network http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2019-02/18/content_5366835.htm
As the government accelerates its transformation, China's business environment continues to optimize. According to the "Doing Business 2020 Report" released by the World Bank, China's overall business environment score of 77.9 points in 2019 ranked 31st in the world, up 15 places from last year, and ranked among the top ten economies with the greatest improvement in the global business environment for the second consecutive year.
In 2018, the party and state institutions completed an unprecedented reform. Unlike the previous institutional reform of the State Council, this time the party and state institutions have been reformed at the same time. The reform system has optimized the setup of the party and state organs, established a new system for coordinating actions under the centralized, unified and comprehensive leadership of the party Central Committee, and adjusted the departmental settings of the State Council according to the needs of the modern economy, integrating the originally decentralized functions. This reform has built a future-oriented party and state organizational system that adapts to high-quality development, and has laid a "hardware" foundation for promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities.
In 2019, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deliberated and adopted the Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics, Promoting the Modernization of the National Governance System and Governance Capacity, which clearly defined the fundamental system, basic system and important system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, answered the major question of "what to uphold and consolidate, improve and develop", and accelerated the orderly advancement of various reforms on this basis. This is of far-reaching significance for promoting reform and opening up in the new era, responding to risks and challenges, and ultimately achieving the "two hundred years" goal.
Third, the tasks that have not yet been completed in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China deeply promoted the structural reform of the supply side and better completed the task of "unloading burdens, clearing obstacles, and laying the foundation" for high-quality development, but these tasks are still in the period of tackling tough problems, and the national economy has not yet fully embarked on the road of high-quality development. There are four main manifestations:
(1) Industrial upgrading is still in the climbing period
The conversion of new and old kinetic energy has not yet been completed. Although the new kinetic energy is constantly increasing, its proportion in the national economy is still low, which is not enough to drive the high-quality development of the entire national economy. In many places, economic development, finance, and employment still rely heavily on traditional industries. With the implementation of capacity reduction and strict ecological and environmental protection measures, some places have the problem of the economic growth engine being turned off.
The de-capacity work still needs to be further consolidated. For the current operating ecology of various industries, it is still necessary to remain sober and calm. Despite the increase in industry concentration and the recovery of indicators such as profit margins, not all enterprises have completed the transformation from extensive to intensive. For the remaining enterprises, if they do not work hard, it is still possible to slide to the old road of extensive growth, and how to form a long-term incentive and constraint mechanism still needs to be further decisively played by the market. For the de-industrialization of production capacity, there are still many "dormant" enterprises, once the supervision is relaxed, it is possible to resurrect, and the entire national economy has not yet spontaneously embarked on the road of resource-saving and environment-friendly development.
The cultivation of new kinetic energy urgently needs a better business environment. At present, there are dual problems of excess capital and insufficient economic vitality, and the solution lies in relaxing market access, stabilizing investment expectations, reducing operating costs, using factors fairly, and further stimulating the vitality of various ownership economies. In terms of market access, although the three major investment negative lists have been formulated and continuously compressed, there is still a problem of inadequate implementation. For example, policy implementation is difficult to meet expectations, opening commitments are difficult to fulfill, key links are opaque, there are many invisible thresholds, supervision is cumbersome, law enforcement is arbitrary, laws and regulations are not perfect, and it is difficult to protect the rights and interests of enterprises. In terms of the use of factors, there are still problems of division of region, household registration, identity, and ownership.
(ii) Financial reform is in a difficult period
China's macro leverage remains high. Until the economy fully achieves high-quality development, it may not be effectively reduced. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are urgent financing needs in the government and corporate sectors, and the leverage ratio may further climb. The recent impulse to relax the local property market policy and the problem of loan violations flowing into real estate and the stock market show that the work of strengthening financial supervision and preventing financial risks cannot be relaxed.
The illegal flow of credit also shows that the ability of finance to support the real economy still needs to be further improved. Financial supervision has largely blocked the flow of credit to the "two highs and one leftover", the real estate market and local governments, but at the same time, there has been a problem of excess funds and "dare not lend". On the one hand, the problems of banks' identity discrimination against lenders and excessive reliance on collateral have not been fundamentally solved, and the risk pricing ability has not yet met the requirements of high-quality development and inclusive finance. On the other hand, the overall quality of the majority of private and small and medium-sized enterprises also needs to be improved, otherwise it is difficult to achieve two-way positive interaction between finance and the real economy.
In the field of direct financing, the institutional system of the capital market needs to be further improved. At present, there are many sectors in the domestic capital market, and the basic system of each sector is still not unified. Since the main board does not have a sound regulatory, delisting and other institutional constraints, speculation is still strong. This speculation has also attracted a large amount of capital, which has a siphon effect on other sectors, which is not conducive to the stable development of listed companies. The trend of consistent system, healthy competition and common growth of various sectors has not yet taken shape. It is more urgent to strengthen the construction of basic systems and improve the quality of listed companies.
In the field of financial opening-up, the entry of foreign capital has increased the uncertainty of domestic financial stability. Recent incidents such as Luckin Coffee and Bank of China crude oil futures have also exposed the shortcomings of domestic enterprises in responding to external financial shocks.
(iii) Regional economies are still in their embryonic stages
Although the land spatial plan and the regional development plan have been determined, due to the short time of the introduction of the plan, it still takes time for the implementation and effectiveness to appear.
First of all, the central cities in the northeast and central and western regions have not yet fully developed, and the radiation driving effect on the surrounding small and medium-sized cities has not yet been fully formed. The planning of "setting up a stage" must eventually be implemented to the industrial "singing". The advantageous industries with regional characteristics are still in the development stage, and it will take time to form a cluster effect.
Second, the majority of small and medium-sized cities face the risk of stalled economic growth. In the past, industrialization and urbanization in various parts of China were similar, and the industries in various places were similar. Before the development of regional central cities matured, the majority of small and medium-sized cities had the problem of insufficient power and unclear positioning.
Finally, the transfer payment system and the interregional compensation mechanism need to be improved. China already has the problem of unbalanced regional development, and the territorial spatial planning restricts the production, living and ecological areas, which is certainly conducive to ecological protection and industrial coordination, but for the resulting imbalance in regional development, the central government needs to carry out transfer payments and establish an effective ecological compensation mechanism.
(iv) The transformation of government is in the throes of a period
From the perspective of governance capabilities, the modernization and transformation of many local government governance methods lag behind. In recent years, the task of reform, development and stability has intensified, resulting in an increase in the cost of local governance and a heavy load on public servants. Although the reform of the party and state institutions has completed the phased tasks in the institutional setup, there is still a lot of work to be done in terms of functional integration, process optimization, and efficiency improvement.
From the perspective of fiscal balance, some local governments have intensified their financial difficulties, and with the advancement of supply-side structural reform, the fiscal revenue of local governments that were highly dependent on resources, land and credit in the past has declined, but there is a rigid growth in expenditure, and the fiscal balance is becoming more and more difficult.
From the perspective of development momentum, the industrialization and urbanization dividends that local governments used to rely on are disappearing. The model of industrial investment has ended, and although there is still room for urbanization, the past urbanization has transferred fewer people and occupied more land, and the future can only implement more intensive urbanization. This means that the traditional model of local governments obtaining funds through land transfer is coming to an end, and new urbanization must be based on sustainable development of industries and stable fiscal revenues to achieve the urbanization of the household registration population, which puts forward higher requirements for local governments. If farmers are allowed to remain in the countryside, the strategy of rural revitalization is imperative. However, at present, the reform of the rural land system is still being explored, the rural grass-roots organizations are also in the construction stage, and it is difficult for agricultural modernization to advance alone in the entire national economy, which requires us to have greater historical patience with rural revitalization, and also requires local governments to transform with greater strength, develop the urban economy, and drive rural revitalization.
Fourth, the formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" should pay attention to the issues
As mentioned earlier, the reform of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period has completed the work of "unloading burdens, clearing obstacles and laying the foundation" for high-quality development, and we should cherish these hard-won achievements and firmly promote high-quality development. Especially in the face of the impact of the epidemic, it is even more necessary to maintain strategic determination and continue to do a good job in all the work that has been carried out. Overall, the "14th Five-Year Plan" period should solve local and current problems from the overall and long-term perspectives, and the following issues should be paid attention to specifically:
(1) Put the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure in a prominent priority position
At present, China's industrial structure is still in a state of coexistence of high-end, high-end and low-end supply, and coexistence of high-efficiency and backward enterprises. Under this situation, the upgrading of industrial structure should be carried out in three aspects: upgrading traditional industries, developing emerging industries, and survival of the fittest. In the past, China mainly focused on the development of emerging industries and larger increments; it lagged behind in stock optimization, and problems such as inefficient enterprises occupying too many resources and market entry barriers led to insufficient productivity improvement in traditional industries and restricted high-quality development. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China adopted the necessary administrative means to promote capacity reduction, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period should eliminate the problems of distorted and inefficient resource allocation and market entry barriers from a more fundamental institutional level. Specifically, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Building a More Perfect System and Mechanism for the Market-oriented Allocation of Factors", strictly implement the negative list system, focus on handling the relationship between state-owned enterprises and economies of multiple ownership systems, large, medium, and small enterprises, and realize the equal use of production factors by enterprises of various ownership systems, fair participation in market competition, and equal legal protection.
At the same time, we should coordinate the relationship between the first, second, and third industries, the relationship between emerging industries and traditional advantageous industries, make greater efforts to break through technical bottlenecks, promote the servitization of the first and second industries and the informatization upgrading of traditional industries, promote the structural reform of the supply side and the "Made in China 2025" to achieve obvious results, and lay a good foundation for China to achieve the transformation of the industrial structure to the middle and high-end around 2030.
In addition, China's catch-up industrialization strategy of relying on "high savings and high investment" is nearing its end, and future high-quality development needs the domestic market of "low savings and high consumption" as a support, especially in the context of the impact of the epidemic, the weakening of the momentum of globalization, and the increase in uncertainty about external demand, and it is more important to pay attention to the market demand of 1.4 billion people in China. We should stabilize residents' expectations, enhance their consumption capacity and willingness by improving basic public services and enhancing the function of social security support, and further promote the development of a domestic demand-led economy.
(2) Accelerate the construction of an innovative country
In the field of scientific and technological innovation, China has changed from "following and running" to "following, running and leading". This requires us to make adjustments to the national innovation strategy: on the one hand, improve the new national system, focus on key technological breakthroughs from top to bottom, and enhance the ability of basic research and independent innovation; on the other hand, in some frontier fields, rely more on bottom-up spontaneous innovation of enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions, so as to avoid choosing the wrong direction due to strategic misjudgment in the case of uncertain direction of technological progress. At the policy level, the policy of encouraging innovation should shift from focusing on finance and finance in the past to cultivating and protecting the innovation environment. Further strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, improve the efficiency of judicial remedies, increase the intensity of punitive damages, and strengthen the training of administrative management and judicial talents in the field of intellectual property rights.
Talent is the cornerstone of a country's ability to innovate. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we should further improve the national education system from early education to higher education, and pay more attention to the balanced allocation of educational resources. Mainland higher education is expanding from quantitative expansion to quality optimization and upgrading, and the quality of teaching needs to be improved urgently; at the same time, the new technological revolution characterized by digitalization and automation is replacing labor, and creativity, unconventional skills, social skills, and self-learning skills will become the core of future talent competition. We should improve the quality of teaching with this orientation, improve the supervision mechanism of teaching quality, and build a future-oriented national education system. In addition, the impact of the epidemic has made new models such as online education and shared education more popular, and these new means have been applied well to improve the quality of education and promote educational equity.
(iii) Increased focus on nurturing regional economies
Urbanization and industrialization are the main drivers of China's economic development. At present, global urban development has entered a new stage of comprehensively improving the international competitiveness of large and small cities by strengthening transportation and network links between large and small cities. The 14th Five-Year Plan should conform to this trend, optimize the spatial layout of productive forces according to the spatial planning of the national territory, and rationally formulate regional development plans, so as to clarify the development positioning of each city and create a unique urban economy.
On the one hand, accelerate the development of regional center cities. Under the premise of strict ecological protection and farmland protection, actively and steadily promote the reform of decentralization of approval power for construction land, improve regional and national land markets, solve the problem of land use in central cities, enhance the scientific and long-term nature of urban development planning, and cultivate regional economic growth poles.
On the other hand, coordinated regional development. A dynamic regional economy requires coordinated development and complementary advantages of large, medium, and small cities. The pandemic has also reminded us that overpopulated megacities are vulnerable to security while generating economies of scale. At present, the increasing improvement of transportation infrastructure and the popularization and application of 5G will promote the development of distributed offices, which provides more opportunities for the development of surrounding small and medium-sized cities. At present, the central and local fiscal and taxation arrangements and local government assessment mechanisms can easily lead to local protectionism. Therefore, we should further reform the government performance appraisal mechanism and the intergovernmental fiscal and taxation relationship, strengthen cooperation between local governments in the fields of transportation facility integration, environmental protection, public service supply and trade facilitation, and coordinate regional development.
(4) Improve the financial system and improve the efficiency of capital allocation
Continue to deepen reforms in the area of indirect financing. The first is to continue to strengthen financial supervision capabilities, grasp the flow of funds with penetrating supervision, strictly control the flow of funds to high-risk or inefficient areas, adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks, and force financial institutions to enhance their risk pricing capabilities; the second is to relax market access in the financial services industry, deepen the reform of small and medium-sized banks, solve institutional and institutional obstacles encountered in serving grass-roots and small and medium-sized and micro enterprises, improve the insurance system and the construction of government guarantee systems, and increase the effective supply of inclusive finance; the third is to strengthen the construction of financial infrastructure. Improve the social credit system, accelerate the establishment and improvement of a legal framework for data protection, promote the in-depth development and utilization of credit information, accelerate the exploration of RMB digital currencies, and use financial technology to improve the level of supervision and the efficiency of capital allocation.
Focus on improving the direct financing system. In accordance with the basic requirements of "complete financing functions, solid basic system, effective market supervision, and effective protection of the legitimate rights and interests of investors", adhere to the reform principle of marketization and rule of law, actively and steadily promote the implementation of basic systems such as registration system issuance, information disclosure, dividends of listed companies, investor protection, and strict delisting in various sectors, resolutely crack down on financial fraud, insider trading, market manipulation and other violations of laws and regulations, consolidate the responsibilities of intermediary institutions, improve the quality of listed companies, and resolutely maintain a good market environment. Improve the multi-level capital market system.
(5) Strengthen and improve the Party's leadership over all work and improve the new national system
During the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, in the context of the domestic industrial structure optimization and upgrading entering a critical stage, the international economic uncertainty has greatly increased, and there is a possibility of global economic recession and adjustment, in order to give full play to the advantages of the mainland's large-scale economy and complete industrial categories, to establish an innovative country, and to catch up with developed countries in the new round of industrial revolution, it is necessary to establish and improve a new national system under the overall leadership of the Communist Party of China, and give play to the two "enthusiasms" of the central and local governments. Realize the division of labor and cooperation between government-led scientific and technological innovation and market-led scientific and technological innovation, and get what they want.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the party's leadership should focus on the following aspects. The first is to safeguard national security and respond to major risks and challenges. The epidemic prevention work has entered normalization and the international situation is turbulent, so we should strengthen our internal and external synergies, overcome difficulties together, do a good job in the "six stability and six guarantees" work, seize the opportunity in the crisis, and make greater achievements in promoting the establishment of a fairer international political and economic order. The second is to improve the new national system. The domestic economic structure is being reshaped, a new round of scientific and technological revolution is still on the eve of the outbreak, we should be more bold, with a new national system to promote the implementation of major national strategic major innovation projects, from the overall and long-term perspective to solve local and current problems. The third is to continue to strengthen the building of grass-roots organizations. The epidemic prevention struggle has tempered the ranks of grass-roots organizations and strengthened the relationship between the party and the masses and between cadres and the masses, and we should seize this opportunity to strengthen the construction of mass autonomous organizations in urban and rural areas and the construction of grass-roots party organizations, pay attention to the cultivation and selection of young talents, and lay a solid foundation for reducing the cost of governance, improving the efficiency of governance, and promoting rural revitalization.
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