Today is February 2, 2022, the second day of the New Year, in the new year, the old stock here to wish everyone good health and good luck in the Year of the Tiger.
CSI Liquor :
(1) This article judges from the trend of liquor consumption, and this article summarizes the future medium- and long-term strategy based on the daily K-line trend of the CSI Liquor Index. At the same time, the liquor sector will affect the overall trend of the blue-chip weighted sector in A-shares, which can affect the Shanghai Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, A50 and so on.
(2) We can clearly see that the starting point of the downward decline of liquor is on December 13, during which the downward trend of liquor has continued until the eve of the Spring Festival. One thing to note is the downtrend, the short-term rally process from December 21 to December 24, 2021, and the second short-term rally process triggered from January 17 to January 21, 2022.
(3) The first rebound process triggered on December 21 last year was at the top of the stage, and an M-type double top process was formed in the box of the top interval of the stage. For example, in this downward structure, we remember that there is a short-term rebound rebound process in the downtrend, and it is easy to trap the chassis of the over-the-counter entry, which makes the chips in the upper top box area form too many traps. It will also create pressure barriers to future entry into the top box range.
(4) Then the pressure position of the box range of CSI Baijiu is at the lowest point of the time on December 21, 2021, 17983 points.
(5) The current liquor has been formed in the lower structure, forming a structure similar to the prototype of the double bottom, and is waiting for the process of forming the right bottom of the double bottom after the Spring Festival.
(6) Some people are worried that in the last two trading days before the Spring Festival, the trend of liquor is very poor and has been in a state of leading the decline. The reason for this is that liquor suffered a large outflow of foreign capital northbound funds before the Spring Festival, and the approximate net outflow of foreign capital in these two days reached 27 billion yuan in A-share cities, and liquor ranked first in foreign capital outflows.
(7) I carefully analyzed the reasons for foreign capital outflows, one reason is that the call for fed interest rate hikes this year is too strong, from three expected rate hikes to four throughout the year. (About once a quarter, March, June, September, December) This process of interest rate hikes has caused the dollar index to appreciate and the offshore renminbi to depreciate.
(8) As a result, foreign capital in the A-share market has some passive allocation of A-share assets denominated in RMB last year, which is losing its advantage in exchange rate, so this year's foreign capital will gradually flow out of the A-share market.
(9) The second reason is expected to be the closure of the Spring Festival holiday in the face of A-shares, some foreign assets flowed out from the A-share festival before the festival and entered the foreign market, and the recent trend of the outer disk market bottomed out and strengthened, which can also confirm the judgment.
(10) Liquor plate, I think the strategic thinking of the future market, can be configured at a low level through the distribution of the way to enter the market, the liquor plate is not suitable for short-term swings, low suction after entering the market, do not need frequent short-term trading. I think you can collect chips at a low level, then take it for a while, wait for the recovery to return to near the 17983 point level, and then settle the low-sucking chip profit.
(11) Tomorrow I will begin the overall long article on the cyclical index out of the detailed post-holiday trend strategy judgment, including: infrastructure projects, real estate index, non-ferrous metals, rare earths, CSI coal, national securities steel and so on to make a detailed judgment in turn.
Walking by, everyone took 1 minute to trouble to leave a word under the long article of the old unit and write a comment. Thank you for the long-term praise and support of your old friends, you will grow steadily and continue to improve yourself.