Last season, the NBA's trading deadlines went from a few months to just a few days away, and the Blazers showed no signs of trading. But it was in the last hour that they found a partner who was willing to work with — the Toronto Raptors.
The Trail Blazers want to have a more experienced, well-rounded player on their roster. And the Raptors have been looking for young potential. In the minutes leading up to the deadline, the two teams struck a deal, sending Norman Powell to Portland, while Gary Trent and Rodney Hood sent to Toronto.
The reason for the deals that were completed at the last minute of last year is that most of the letters from readers are related to the transaction deadline of February 11. These curiosities and "conspiracy theories" are obviously not difficult to understand, and this is part of the wonderful plot that makes the NBA so attractive to you. Beyond that, it's about how difficult it is to predict a trade or to answer your questions about trading: it's two, or even three, four teams of tango. And, as the deadline approaches, it is even more difficult to predict when and to what extent a team will deviate from its original course.
Now, the Trail Blazers' current situation exacerbates the deal uncertainty before their deadline: On the face of it, all indications are that they are fighting for a high-level draft pick. They are a hundred and eighteen thousand miles away from the title contenders. Their best offensive player, Damien Lillard, won't play until at least the end of February. Once they make the playoffs, their first-round picks are the Bulls'.
But if you look a little deeper, the Blazers' wobble (or rather, unmoved by the victory) isn't as obvious as it seems. The Trail Blazers had a chance, very good chance, to win 11 games in a row from March 20 to April 7. You read that right, the possibility of an 11-game winning streak is real. During this time, Portland will play against the Spurs (three times), Thunder (twice), Rockets (twice), Pelicans (twice), Pacers and Pistons. Four of these opponents are at the bottom of the West, while the other two are second and third from the bottom in the East.
Four weeks before this sweet fixture, Lillard will be evaluated for his first comeback after abdominal surgery on January 13. In his 10-year career, Lillard never saw defeat as a gain (never accepted a wreck). He always believed that with him, the team had a chance to win. If the Blazers have a chance to hit the playoffs, I can foresee Lillard doing everything he can to come back to help the team. At the age of 31, he doesn't have many seasons left.
Now let's look at how Portland's January performance will affect the move before the deadline. Their defense is getting better. The Trail Blazers are 29th defensively this season, but in January, they were 20th. The defensive performances of Robert Covington and Yusuf Nurkic are slowly waking up after the start of their (or at least unstable) season. Their recent defensive performances – Covington's outside line and Nurkic's rim – are commendable, if not outstanding. Meanwhile, Anfinni Simmons had an outburst in Lillard's absence and should even be considered as January's Western Conference's best man of the month. In addition, CJ McCollum looked like he had never been out of the game in his first two games after six weeks of missing out on injury.
Teams after the top four in the West have a lot of records, so portland's jump from 10th to 7th or even 6th is not impossible.
What moves the Trail Blazers before the trade deadline ultimately hinges on a simple question: How will their interim GM Joe Cronin build the roster? Brain (high draft pick) or heart (respect lillard for the playoffs)?
Smart choice, in my opinion, is to choose the future. The Blazers have been up and down in the gray area of the West for too long: they could make the playoffs — but not far from being a bigger threat to go further in the playoffs. Now that the Blazers are in 9th to 5th place, there is a good chance of diving to 4th to 5th in the 5th place. As far as I know, this upcoming rookie is pretty good. While there are no privileged players like Anthony Davis, there are some players like Evan Mobley who can play a role as soon as they enter the league.
Cronin is a staunch supporter of Lillard and will take the opinions of the core of the team very seriously. I know Lillard and Cronin had frequent communication since he took office on December 3, but it's not clear to me whether Cronin offered Lillard the option of a high-roller pick or supported the Blazers in their ninth consecutive playoff spot. I'm not sure how Lillard will react to this scenario, but my instincts tend to be that Lillard wants to win and hit the playoffs again, rather than sit back and forth for the rest of the season.
I'm rambling on this to provide some background information before answering your questions.
Reader Question 1: Did the rumors of Miles Turner coming to the Trailblazers have more substance to work than the hypothetical Ben Simmons deal? (Simmons' deal could have sent CJ McCollum plus a few draft picks to the 76ers, but was previously halted by Neil Olch) — Jeremy T.
Believe it or not, Cronin didn't give me any clues about what he wanted to do and what kind of offer he was dealing with. However, let's talk about Turner's option, after all, the Pacers have let people know that the talented but injured center can be traded. His subsequent contract was $18 million per season.
I think that this kind of deal is exactly what the Trailblazers should think about carefully. I know Turner will be absent due to left-foot stress until at least early February, but that's exactly what makes the deal tempting.
With Turner injured, Portland could keep him off the court this season to ensure his foot fully recovered. It's called "lose-before-win, which allows the Blazers to better swing and finalize a starting center to play alongside Lillard, high-ranking rookies, and rising Simmons Jr. and Nassir Little.
While I don't like turner so much about the idea of the Trail Blazers, he does meet some of the team's needs. He is now 25 years old and is at the age when the player is at the peak of the impact. He's a defensive player who has proven himself, leading the NBA in blocks this season, no. 1 in blocks in 2018-19, and will pose a high-hanging air receiver threat to the Blazers, which the Blazers lack. He was also eager to prove that he deserved a more important role than the Pacers had given him.
I'm not sure the Blazers have the assets to impress the Pacers — there are reports that the Pacers are seeking a lot of first-round shows in return for Turner — but this type of deal would undoubtedly improve the Blazers' roster. Narens Noel may be a slightly inferior but also a considerable deal, he is out of the Knicks due to various injuries, but in a healthy situation, he is an efficient, defensive-minded center.
Reader Question 2: How good is Simmons Jr.'s defense? If the answer is average or better, that makes lineup building much easier. ——John M.
Letters were all asking little Simmons, but I thought John's question was to the point. All of Simmons' defensive stats have been on the rise since the second half of last season and this season, which is clearly an encouraging signal for the Blazers. At the same time, that's why I think Simmons Jr. has become almost unshakable in the eyes of the uniforms.
We all know the Trail Blazers have problems with bloated guards — Lillard, McCollum, Powell, Simmons — and it looks like 1 will be traded without 2.
But who is trading?
My guess is that the Trail Blazers will keep Lillard and Simmons. One reason for this was exactly what John was curious about, Simmons' defense.
This season, the Blazers conceded 0.8 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end when Simmons played. According to Cleaning the Glass, that puts Simmons Jr. in the top 44 percent (McCollum 46 percent, Lillard 67 percent, And Powell 94 percent). After last season's All-Star, Simmons had the third-highest defensive efficiency in the team (after Nurkic and Powell) and the highest plus-minus (+14) on the team.
This season, Simmons (+7.2) has the second-highest plus-minus, behind Nurkic (+9.4).
Moreover, a BBall Index data that measures defensive ball-holding cover (how defenders interfere and pressure ball carriers) ranks Simmons in the league no. 3, behind Juil Holliday and Lonzo Ball, ahead of Dexanet Murray and Mikale Bridges. This is already a performance of the top outside defenders.
The five players with the best defensive possession cover stats:
Judah Holliday
Ronzo Bauer
Anfini Simmons
Dezhangtai Murray
Mikael Bridges
The data analyzes the effect of defenders with ball cover by oppressing and interfering with the ball carrier's movements
In other words, Simmons is not only young, not just a blooming organizer and top shooter, but also an evolving defender. The more he plays, the more familiar he becomes with the tactics and configurations of other teams, and the better his defense will be.
The Trailblazers had to keep him.
Reader Question 3: Will the Trail Blazers be screwed up to get a high pick? Will the Blazers open to handle The Corvington and Nurkic's expiring contracts? Are they still actively seeking to trade McCollum? Simmons' growth has forced the Blazers to give him a bigger contract in the offseason, so will the Blazers trade Powell to see what will pay off? Will they completely tear down the rebuild, or even trade Lillard? Or will they hoard assets like draft picks and young players to make a big move on the whole point in next year's draft?
This reader's question hits all the hot topics, take a look.
I had reason to expect the Blazers to be one of the most active teams before the deadline, but I was told they wouldn't close their positions. That said, Cronin may subvert the lineup, but not for the sake of change.
I do think Covington and Nurkic will be traded for two reasons: they're talented enough to attract other teams, and I think the Trail Blazers need to get younger and more athletically talented in the future.
But first, I have to stress that The recent performances of Covington and Nurkic have been really good. I can imagine the climb in the value of their trades, and this is obviously good news for the Trailblazers. Both are expiring contracts, which is very tempting for teams that want to save money this summer. At the same time, the Trail Blazers also have the opportunity to pay $3 million less to fall below the luxury tax line, which is also a major priority for Cronin. Don't ignore their value just because they're on an expired contract, both players are at a very high level of competition.
Covington is the only player this season to achieve more than 60 steals and 50 or more blocks at the same time. There was a round against the Heat this week that showed Covington's defensive versatility — he first delayed the ball carrier, then assisted in stopping the empty cut, and finally pounced on the three-point shooter. Three successful defenses, all in one round.
At the same time, Nurkic has recently killed four sides at both ends of the offensive and defensive ends. Score, organize, defend. He has scored three consecutive double-doubles, including 21 points, 22 rebounds and four steals against the Magic. As a result, when he's on the floor, he concedes points per possession in the top 4 percent of the league.
I think the goal of the future Trail Blazers — whether it's before the trade deadline or this summer — is going to be more mobile, especially in the center position. Think about how many opposing centers have seen this season dunk in the air. The Trailblazers had no such weapon at all. Even though Covington has looked really fierce lately, his lateral movement is still hard to laugh at. I don't think he'll be in the Blazers' long-term plans, even though I think he's valuable to other competitive teams.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Powell leave, though I don't know how many teams would be willing to take over his 5-year, $90 million contract. But apparently, the Blazers have to say goodbye to the three-guard starter, and let the 6-foot-3 (1.91m) Powell defensive size one-sized small forward not be a human officer. I think that's why Powell's defensive stats are so bad. Perhaps having Powell come off the bench after Simmons would also be a solution.
The mystery of all of this is, how much value does the Trailblazers' roster really have to the trading market? And, does Cronin want to win the asset in the present or the signing (in the future)?
Reader Question 4: How much do you know about the new Assistant GM? What will he bring to the Trail Blazers to supplement Cronin's ability to control the pay cap?
The new assistant GM is Andre Patterson, who previously worked at the Cavaliers as senior director of basketball operations. He had a good reputation — Larry Nance Jr., and other players celebrated his arrival — and was expected to build bridges between the uniforms, the coaching staff and the players.
Anderson, 46, has a very rich experience. He has worked under Bobby Knight at Indiana University (a well-known coach) and has worked in the NBA and overseas leagues. He has also served as head coach at the University of Texas at Arlington and in the G-League. He also worked in the Jazz and Knight Uniforms group.
"Andre is a well-respected manager in the league who will bring us an amazing combination of personality, leadership skills, and ultra-high basketball IQ." Cronin announced on behalf of the team.
Cronin said Patterson will be actively involved in player personnel and squad decisions.
Reader Question 5: Do you think the Blazers will still hit the playoffs? I know the young people are going to do their best to make the most of the playing time, but don't you think the whole team has embraced and twisted?
I think head coach Chansi Billups and the players of this team have shown that they are still trying to win every game. They don't have enough talent to win every night, but I don't feel like anyone can question their January efforts. They showed a positive look, played tough and united.
I've only been to a team that doesn't care about winning, in 2011-12, when the team abandoned head coach Nate McMillan and made a big change to the squad before the deadline, and the resulting signing was Damian Lillard. The current team has not yet shown that kind of indifference (to the victory).
Of course, management can initiate a pendulum, trade veterans, and force players like Greg Brown, Trendon Watford and CJ Ellerby to leave Billups with nothing to play and no ball to win. But I don't think the team has come to this point yet.