This year, under the sharp fluctuations of gold and crude oil, the overall performance of domestic nonferrous and chemical futures has been lackluster, while the black and agricultural futures, which are less affected by international factors and more follow the domestic fundamentals, have come out of a wave of markets. Analysts pointed out that under the resonance of macro and micro factors, the short-term black performance is expected to continue to be strong, and the trend of agricultural products may continue to differentiate.
Funds snipe two major commodity sectors
Recently, the performance of two major sectors in the commodity futures market is particularly eye-catching, on the one hand, the pig cycle, the sugar cycle, and the "fruit freedom" frequently pull the rise of related targets, on the other hand, under the support of real estate data and environmental protection production restriction factors, iron ore, coke, and steel futures have made a comeback, and the momentum is compelling.
In stark contrast, gold, crude oil and their non-ferrous and chemical futures varieties continued to perform sluggishly under macro disturbances such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the positive effect of production cuts. According to statistics, the Wenhua Commodity Index has rebounded by about 2.4% in the last six trading days. In terms of sub-sectors, agricultural products and black series rose in the front, followed by the chemical sector, and non-ferrous metals performed the worst.
"Looking at the futures market black system and agricultural products, it is really heartwarming." Futures investor Mr. Cai said that he recently intends to split some funds from the stock market and make some futures allocation.
Judging from the intraday on May 22, the black and agricultural products in the commodity futures market fluctuated sharply. Jujube futures rose to a limit, coke rose 3.45%, iron ore rose 3.41%, becoming the main variety of the market; sugar, cotton intraday fell to a stop, and finally closed down 3.65%, 3.37% respectively. In addition, in the black series, rebar and hot coil rushed higher and fell, and the end of the session still closed up about 1.7%; apple futures in agricultural products closed up 1.96%. From the perspective of capital flow, yesterday's iron ore futures occupied the top spot in the list of commodity futures capital inflows, with a total inflow of 679 million yuan during the day.
The black series is strong and weak
"Real estate pull, I will pull, I and real estate are one." Real estate collapse, I do not collapse, do not look at sales to see the start of construction. Macro is good, I am good, I am macro barometer. Macro difference, I am not bad, environmental protection covers me to fight the world. On the Internet, an oil poem that became popular as the black market heated up outlined the confident appearance of the black futures bulls in the commodity market from the side.
Yesterday's performance of the A-share black sector seems to have been slightly affected, and the coal and steel indices closed green in the context of the sharp rise in commodity benchmarks. Wind data shows that yesterday's A-share coal index fell by 0.07%, and the steel index fell by 1.09%, but there are still individual stocks that perform well, such as the Sunrise Group, Shagang shares rose by 7.22%, Shanmei International rose by 6.15%, and Yun Coal Energy rose by 4.49%.
Industry insiders said that the rise in steel prices does not necessarily mean that the profits of steel mills have increased, and the profit distribution of the coal coking steel industry chain is the key to the fluctuation of performance at the company level. As far as this round of bullish markets is concerned, the profits of steel mills are reduced to a certain extent, and raw material products such as upstream iron ore and coke have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain.
"After the third round of price increases in coking enterprises, the current steel mills have gradually accepted this rise, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 300 yuan / ton, and the inventory in the coking plant has continued to decline, and the mentality of coking enterprises is more optimistic." Shenyin Wanguo Futures analyst Li Ye said.
In terms of iron ore, Zhou Jiayi, an analyst at Minmetals Jingyi Futures, said, "Due to the strong downstream demand for rebar, while the iron ore inventory of steel mills is low, the enthusiasm for procurement has increased, and the demand for iron ore has been supported." Tangshan port PB powder quotation of 725 yuan / ton, the port is still in the state of destocking, the arrival volume is still at a low level, although Vale has some production capacity to resume production, but it has not yet reached the impact time, it is expected that the short-term iron ore is strong shock. ”
For steel prices, industry insiders believe that its price increase is more supported by beautiful real estate data and inventory destocking. Galaxy futures analyst Lu Xiaojing analyzed that although the off-season has arrived, steel consumption has returned to the peak season level this week, superimposed on the high growth rate of new real estate data in April, and the market's previous expectations of the off-season accumulation may be disappointed, so the downward drive weakened.
From the data point of view, in the context of production continues to reach a new high, the recent steel inventory continues to dematerialize, and the decline has expanded. According to statistics, as of the week of May 16, the total social inventory of the five major varieties of steel was 11.6227 million tons, down 514,800 tons from the previous trading week, a decrease of 4.2%.
The situation of weak cotton jujube strong may continue
In terms of agricultural products, the stock and futures markets have also diverged. In the case of a sharp decline in cotton futures, the A-share cotton index recorded a 1.59% increase yesterday, among the individual stocks, Dunhuang Seed Industry rose and stopped, Guannong shares rose by 4.3%, and Xinnong Development rose by 3.07%. In addition, the sugar industry index fell 1.83% yesterday, which is insignificant compared with the decline in Zheng sugar futures.
Among the recent excellent performance of agricultural products, there is another sector that has to be mentioned. Wenhua financial data shows that since May, soybean futures have continued to strengthen, with significant gains; the downstream soybean meal index has risen for three consecutive months. A share soybean concept index performance is even more remarkable, according to Wonder data, this year the sector rose about 68%, yesterday, Fengle seed industry up and down, the stock has risen by 287.5% this year.
In terms of cotton, Guosen futures analyst Hou Yating believes that from the perspective of the outer disk, the sowing progress of the western and southern parts of the main production area of the United States is relatively fast, the market supply pressure still exists, while the demand expectation is weak, and the US cotton lacks upward momentum in the short term. Zheng Mian's short-term fundamentals are the accumulation of domestic downstream cotton yarn blank inventory, insufficient orders, and weak consumption. The transaction price of reserve cotton affected by this is also declining. The overall market atmosphere is bearish.
In terms of sugar, the Industrial Securities Futures Research pointed out that the current market expectations for selling reserves and easing imports are relatively strong, and if the policy relaxation will lead to an increase in supply, this may suppress the disk price in the short term. However, in the medium term, it is expected that the ending inventory will decrease year-on-year, the willingness of spot prices is stronger, and weather factors may also bring new positives.
In terms of red dates, Ruida Futures Research pointed out that the overall supply of dates in the market is sufficient, and most of the goods have been stored in storage. In terms of cost, the planting cost of red dates is more than 8,000 yuan / ton, which forms a certain support for the price of dates. On the demand side, with the advent of the Dragon Boat Festival, red dates have entered the peak consumption season of stages, and demand has warmed up. In terms of substitutes, seasonal fruits have risen sharply in recent days, weakening the impact on the jujube consumer market. Overall, in the short term, affected by the peak consumption season and the sharp rise in seasonal fruit prices, the price of red dates is strong and volatile.
This article originated from China Securities News
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