Anxin Securities: Gave Shaanxi Black Cat an overweight rating with a target price of 11.06 yuan

2021-10-26Anxin Securities Co., Ltd. Zhou Tai, Li Hang conducted a study on Shaanxi Black Cat and released a research report "Cost Compression Coke Profit Space, Investment Income Helps the Company's Performance Release", this report gives an overweight rating to Shaanxi Black Cat, believing that its target price is 11.06 yuan, the current stock price is 7.79 yuan, and the expected increase is 41.98%.

Shaanxi Black Cat (601015)

Event: On October 25, 2021, the company released the third quarter report, the first three quarters of the company achieved operating income of 14.116 billion yuan, an increase of 142.55% year-on-year; achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.224 billion yuan, an increase of 6262.04% year-on-year.

Comments

In the third quarter, the net profit attributable to the mother achieved the same and quarter-on-quarter growth: According to the announcement, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 386 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 231.66% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 23.32%.

Significant increase in investment income: According to the announcement, the company achieved a net investment income of 401 million yuan in the first three quarters, of which 233 million yuan was achieved in the third quarter, an increase of 354.36% year-on-year, an increase of 251.5% month-on-month, if the impact of investment income is not considered, the company's main business of coke and chemical products in the third quarter contributed 153 million yuan.

The cost growth rate is higher, and the profit margin of coke is declining month-on-month: in the first three quarters, the company produced 4.758 million tons of coke, an increase of 35.44% year-on-year, the sales of coke was 4.922 million tons, an increase of 56.1% year-on-year, and the revenue of coke per ton was 2273.9 yuan, an increase of 48.1% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the company produced 1.379 million tons of coke, an increase of 5.18% year-on-year, down 20.3% month-on-month, sales of 1.551 million tons of coke, an increase of 23.5% year-on-year, down 11.9% month-on-month, and the price of ton coke was 2548.6 yuan, an increase of 61.78% year-on-year, and an increase of 22.6% month-on-month. In terms of cost, raw material prices rebounded, and the purchase price of refined coal in the third quarter was 2170.7 yuan / ton, an increase of 147.7% year-on-year and 59.34% month-on-month.

Chemical sales fell slightly, and prices rose across the board: in the third quarter, the company achieved tar sales of 58,000 tons, an increase of 14% year-on-year, down 9% month-on-month, and the price was 3495.9 yuan / ton, up 85.84% year-on-year and 12.55% month-on-month. Crude benzene sales volume was 17,000 tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year, down 13.7% month-on-month, and the sales price was 5358.35 yuan / ton, up 159.4% year-on-year and 20.72% month-on-month. The company's methanol sales in the third quarter were 16,500 tons, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, down 1.43% month-on-month, and the price in the third quarter was 2041.9 yuan / ton, an increase of 67.2% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month. The company's sales of LNG in the third quarter were 32,000 tons, down 12.5% year-on-year, down 22.4% month-on-month, and priced at 4455.42 yuan / ton, an increase of 92.2% year-on-year and 38% month-on-month. The sales volume of synthetic ammonia in the third quarter was 57,000 tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year, down 24% month-on-month, and the sales price was 3219.4 yuan / ton, an increase of 73.2% year-on-year and 10.7% month-on-month. In the third quarter, BOD production and sales volume were 13,500 tons and 14,500 tons, respectively, and the price was 22,080.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 247.9% year-on-year and 8.15% month-on-month.

Investment advice: Overweight -A rating. The 6-month target price is 11.06 yuan. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.623/19.67/2.055 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.79/0.96/1.01 yuan/ share, respectively.

Risk warning: The construction in progress has fallen short of expectations, and the price of coke has fallen sharply.

In the past 90 days, a total of 2 institutions have given ratings and overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 12.74; the Valuation Analysis Tool of Securities Star shows that Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) good company is rated 3 stars, good price is rated 2.5 stars, and the valuation comprehensive rating is 3 stars.