French media article: 2022 new coronavirus new variants will hit humans again?

The French newspaper Le Monde published an article on January 10 titled "The Coronavirus: The Emergence of New Variants is a Real Risk, But Less and Less," written by Florent Rossier. The full text is excerpted below:

Can we sign an armistice with COVID-19, or will the arrival of a new mutant strain destroy that hope? In Cyprus, a combination of the Delta variant and the Aomi kerong variant appears to have been discovered, and experts have shown cautious optimism. To be sure, in the evolutionary race between viruses and human hosts, the competition is fierce. The impetus is, as always, "adaptation".

The game changes rapidly

Because the battlefield is changing rapidly, both sides must constantly adjust their weapons. On the one hand, viruses are constantly mutating to adapt to the development of our immune defenses and changes in behavior; on the other hand, our immune systems are constantly launching counterattacks, responding to the attacks of the virus or the vaccines we have been vaccinated.

"The emergence of new mutant strains is very surprising. We didn't anticipate any of the five variants of COVID-19 that are worrisome. Etienne Simon-Lörieux, a virologist at the Institut Pasteur in France, admits. Three worrisome variants may arise: more contagious, more toxic, and avoid our immune defenses.

If the threshold for humanity to reach collective immunity is getting higher and higher, the same is true for the ability of new variants to spread. But this evolutionary race is not endless. Etienne de Crolli, a virologist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, explains: "For viruses, the space for mutation is relatively limited, especially in the field of spike proteins, which allow viruses to open the locks of human cells. ”

In addition, Mircea Sophnea, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier in France, believes that "over time, the longer the interval between the appearance of more contagious variant strains" because the level of requirements increases. The same is true of more toxic variants. Such variants may appear, but they will become less and less common. However, "the claim that the more contagious variants are necessarily less toxic is nonsense." "There is no counter-choice between these two characteristics," he says. ”

The risk of variation remains

Some experts are confident. Bruno Canal, a virologist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, said: "The Omilkejun variant is so conclusive that I cannot see how another, more contagious or more virulent variant can emerge and prevail." ”

Other experts have a slightly different perspective. According to Etienne de Crowley, "There is still a risk of a more toxic variant. He stressed, especially since the variants that are now in circulation do not carry the anastomosis mutation that promotes the key to the virus that targets the lock of the human cell. If this happens, its toxicity will increase.

"Evolution will never stop unless eradicated," stressed Florence Debar, an expert in evolutionary biology at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, "in September 2021, when the Delta variant dominates, many believe that the next worrisome variant will come from Delta." However, the emergence of Omiqueron has created a wave that could replace Delta – although it is unclear whether Omiqueron will dominate in the long run.

There is also a type of mutant strain, a variant that can evade our immune defenses. As people's immunity grows stronger, such variants will have an advantage over more contagious "cousins." Mircea Sofoneta said: "They will be transmitted through a large number of people who have been infected or vaccinated. ”

In this regard, the example of influenza is instructive. In 2009, a new strain of influenza, H1N1, emerged, triggering a pandemic. Over the next two years, the flu virus underwent some mutations that made it more contagious. The August 19, 2021 issue of The American weekly Science explained that after that, the new mutation of the flu virus is mainly to enable it to evade our immune defenses.

The outlook is uncertain

Let's now look at the genealogy of the Amikeron variant, which can provide valuable lessons. Florent de Bar explains: "The branch of Theomilon on the evolutionary tree of viruses is very low. "It is clear that as early as April 2020, its ancestors began to deviate from the trunk of this tree. According to the most accepted hypothesis, it accumulated mutations — more than 50 — by multiplying in a patient with severe immunodeficiency (and thus unable to get rid of the virus). The patient was infected for a long time, giving the virus time — 6 months — to accumulate errors by copying the genome and perfecting the mutations that favored it.

This process is not without consequences. Epidemiologist Arnos Fontane said: "The pattern of emergence of Omikejong is very different, and this pattern will lead to more unpredictable variants. "Therefore, "the emergence of a new Kind of Aumiqueron is entirely possible," says Arnold Fontane, director of the Global Health Division at the Pasteur Institute. In fact, the virus hasn't explored all the mutations that would make it more powerful — and, to put it clearly, better at spreading.

We were lucky enough to encounter Anmikeron, a less virulent virus. Maybe part of it is because it's dealing with people with enhanced immunity? But not only that. It is much easier for Omikejong to infect the upper respiratory tract (nose, throat) than to the lower respiratory tract (lungs). On the one hand, this makes it more contagious: once infected with Omicron, people exhale more viruses than Delta exhales; on the other hand, it causes fewer severe diseases: our lungs are safer.

But this luck may not last. "It cannot be ruled out that a very different new variant will emerge, perhaps more contagious, while avoiding the immune system and causing more serious diseases." Arno Fontane said. Not to mention, he adds, there is another worrying point: Omikeron seems to be more adapted to animal hosts (rodents, deer, etc.). Theoretically, "it could infect an animal host and then return to humans in a different form."

What does this tell us? Caution is still required. Even all the experts interviewed were pleased to say that the impact of future epidemics on severe diseases should gradually weaken. Thanks for our immune defenses.

Source: Reference News Network