Orient Fund Li Rui: Starting from the comparison of mesoscopic industries, we will invest in industrial trends

The stock market in 2022 started unfavorably, the first week of the new energy related sector fell sharply by more than 5%, but we see that the new energy of high-quality pitchers will not suddenly lose judgment, continue to be optimistic about the new energy fund manager is also improving business capabilities, oriental fund manager Li Rui is one of them, he is preparing to "do a big job", the current proposed li rui management of the oriental automobile industry trend fund (class A 014560, C class 014561) is being issued.

"If Oriental New Energy Vehicle is the eve of our industrial outbreak, through the forward-looking layout for investors to bring considerable returns on the industrial trend, then the Oriental Automobile Industry Trend Fund will strive to seize the revolutionary opportunities in the huge wave of electrification and intelligence for investors." At this point in time, the layout of automobile intelligence-related industries may be compared to the time point when we laid out new energy vehicles in 2018. At the 2022 Oriental Fund Cloud Investment Strategy Conference, Li Rui said with confidence.

Based on the investment management of the Oriental New Energy Automobile Fund, the author conducted in-depth exchanges with Li Rui on the relevant investment logic and investment methods.

Start from the comparison of mesoscopic industries to make investment in industrial trends

According to public information, Li Rui of Orient Fund has more than 10 years of experience in securities industry and more than 4 years of experience as an investment manager. His main research areas during his research period covered the new energy sector of power equipment, including electric power, photovoltaics, high-end manufacturing, new energy vehicles and other fields, and he had a rich and in-depth research foundation in the new energy-related industrial chain.

"Starting from the mesoscopic industry, respecting the industrial trend, focusing on the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, and allocating different proportions of subdivided industries according to the degree of prosperity, this is my basic investment logic," Li Rui said.

Why do you start from mesoscopic industry comparison to make industry trend investment? Li Rui analysis said that a few years ago, the macro policy fluctuations were very cyclical, the cycle span was large, and it was suitable for top-down large-scale asset allocation and industry rotation, but the current macro including policy and credit backgrounds have become pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, and the volatility has been significantly reduced, including the cycle span is also significantly shortened, so standing in the current macro context to do industrial trends, or the most important combination management methods.

Specific to the investment in the new energy automobile industry, Li Rui's most important combination management principle is to respect the industrial trend, which involves three thinking, the first industrial thinking, the second cycle thinking, the third marginal thinking, industrial thinking is to grasp the emerging industries, many of the stock price drivers of the new energy automobile industry are from the industry, and the long-term drive comes from the change of the industry; The second is cyclical thinking, whether it is from the industrial life cycle or product life cycle, we must judge where we are; The third is marginal thinking, from industrial landing to individual stock selection, in the process of transition to grasp the endogenous needs of the business, and then examine barriers, growth and space.

The combination configuration is "unchanged" ballast to "change" the offense

"The new energy industry itself is an industry with high growth, and what remains unchanged in my portfolio is the industrial trend, the main tone of the industry such as cost reduction and efficiency increase, etc., and the driving factors of the industrial trend, the path channels for cost reduction and efficiency increase, policies, market sentiment flashpoints and other factors." Li Rui organically combines change and invariance to build a combination.

According to the product quarterly report, from the disclosed results of the oriental new energy automobile fund's equity positions classified by industry, since the second half of 2020, the fund has continued to increase the resource energy industry around the upstream price increase logic of the new energy vehicle industry chain, correspondingly reducing the position of the equipment and manufacturing industry. The heavy stocks of Oriental New Energy Vehicles are mainly growth leading stocks. After the fund manager selects the track in terms of growth dimension, individual stocks choose to consider comprehensively from the aspects of industrial life cycle, demand and capacity expansion cycle, core contradictions, business models, etc., and strive to capture high-quality growth enterprises, and the top ten heavy stocks are mainly leading stocks in subdivided industries.

Li Rui said that his choice of high-quality companies is composed of three dimensions, namely high-quality companies, companies with room for change and companies with better supply and demand relations. The best companies are the cornerstone of my positions, which may account for 50% to 60% of the weight; The companies with the biggest changes, such companies can not be sought, especially in emerging industries, in the new energy automobile industry, such companies must join my heavy stocks, but must be after the continuous verification of the resonance of changes in technology, management, products, costs and other N dimensions; The third is the company with the best supply and demand relationship, because the new energy vehicle industry chain is long enough, the category is more obvious, and when there is a mismatch between the supply cycle and the demand cycle or when the gap between supply and demand is expanding, there will be a relatively large elasticity.

At present, it may be an important opportunity period for the layout of automobile intelligence related industries

Li Rui said that we believe that the future of automotive intelligence will usher in a golden decade, which comes from the needs of car companies and consumers, as well as from the significant social value that the industry can provide, and from the strong support of the state. McKinsey predicted that in 2025-2027 we will see the intersection of autonomous driving and human driver costs, that is, the balance point, after which the cost of autonomous driving will be lower than the cost of human drivers. Standing at the current point in time, we are now at the beginning of this golden decade, if the new energy vehicle has passed 0-1, entered 1-10, the future is 10 to n, then the smart car has just experienced 0-1, and is now at the starting point of 1-10, we think that 2020-2022 is likely to be an L3 level outbreak, 2023-2025 may be to L4/L5 advanced period.

At present, the Orient Automobile Industry Trend Hybrid Fund (Class A 014560, Class C 014561) to be managed by Li Rui is being issued, and according to the fund contract, the proportion of equity assets of the product to the assets of the fund is 60%-95%, and the proportion of investment in the securities related to the defined automobile industry trend theme is not less than 80% of the assets of the non-cash fund. Among them, the investment in the trend of the automobile industry defined by the fund mainly includes three major areas: the development trend of new energy vehicles; The automotive industry is combining with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data to achieve the trend of intelligent driving goals; The development trend of traditional automobiles such as lightweighting and energy saving.

Li Rui finally added that investment is a practice, long-term orientation, focus and adherence are its consistent requirements for itself, its firm belief that new energy is a very potential market in the future, and the automobile, as a new generation of intelligent terminals integrated development of information technology and transportation, is a subversive innovation, which has a far-reaching impact on the existing industrial structure. "The mainland will put the intelligent networked automobile industry at a strategic height, and the policy guidance and the real endogenous needs of the market will jointly promote the development of the commercialization of intelligent vehicles." We believe that the current situation may be an important opportunity period for the layout of smart cars. ”

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