Pig Annual Report: Pig Generation Infinite Generation Cycle is similar every year

summary:

Pig futures were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on January 8, 2021, and due to the general optimism about the recovery of pig production capacity in the second half of the year, and the listing price was much higher than the market expectations, the first day of listing performed poorly, falling from a maximum of 30680 to 26810/ton on the same day. It then fell all the way down, falling to 24565 on January 25 and rebounding to a high of 29805. The reason for the rebound is that after the winter, the non-plague epidemic in the northern region is frequent, and North China, East China, Central China and other places have become the hardest hit areas of the epidemic outbreak. After May 10, with the recovery of pig production capacity, pig prices fell all the way, falling to 13365 on September 24. After that, the price began to bottom out, but the rebound was weaker, and the price is currently running above 14500.

Looking forward to 2022, we will maintain a judgment on the overall price of live pigs. Based on the perspective of supply and demand expectations, the supply of easing in the first half of 2022 is expected to exert pressure is still relatively large, both the release of high production capacity, and the impact of the consumption off-season, so the pig price in the first half of the year is still not very optimistic, but considering that the current pig price is close to the cost range, the degree of impact of the price downward depends on the impact of profit contraction on the upstream mentality, if there is a situation of early release, it may lead to early release of pressure. The price change in the second half of the year depends on the performance of the market in the first half of the year, considering that the overall degree of capacity removal is not high, and at the same time, it is supported by the peak consumption season, and the operating range in the second half of the year is expected to move up by a certain extent compared with the first half of the year. Based on supply easing expectations, the LH2203 contract is expected to run in the 12500-15000 range and the LH2205 contract is expected to run in the 13500-16000 range. In terms of operation, for the 2203 contract and the 2205 contract, it is still recommended that breeding enterprises pay attention to the opportunity to rebound and go short.

This article originates from Founder Medium Term Futures