The Paper's trainee reporter Wang Qiwen
On January 20, Bain & Company (hereinafter referred to as "Bain") released the "2021 China Luxury Market Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which pointed out that the size of China's personal luxury goods market (total consumption) is expected to grow by 36% in 2021, reaching nearly 471 billion yuan.
Bain maintained his view that by 2025, the Chinese market is expected to become the world's largest luxury market.
Xing Weiwei, a global partner of Bain & Company, told the surging news reporter that from a global perspective, the proportion of the Chinese market in the total global luxury consumption will rise to about 21% in 2021. At present, there are many luxury brands that also agree with this market development trend. She expects the growth trend to continue in the future, "regardless of the progress of the future recovery of outbound tourism, by 2025, the Chinese market is expected to become the world's largest luxury market." Xing Weiwei said at the report meeting.
Bain analysis, the luxury categories in the first half of 2021 growth momentum, year-on-year growth rate in the range of 40% -100%, while some brands in the second half of the year year year-on-year growth rate is expected to fall to 0% -25% range.
For this clearly different market trend, Xing Weiwei believes that it is mainly due to the high base of the same period in the second half of 2020, and the sporadic new crown epidemic in many cities in China since the second half of last year, and secondly, consumers' consumption concepts have been affected by the cooling of the stock market and the real estate market and tend to be conservative.
The Bain Report expects the Chinese market to become the world's largest luxury market by 2025, source report
Bain believes that in the future, China's luxury market will focus on three aspects: duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands, China's digital development and the return trend of overseas consumption.
According to the report, in 2021, sales of Hainan duty-free shops are expected to increase by about 85% to about 60 billion yuan, accounting for about 5% of the total sales growth of China's domestic luxury market. Among them, personal luxury goods account for about 95% of the sales of Hainan duty-free shops, of which more than 50% of sales come from luxury beauty.
In this regard, Xing Weiwei pointed out that the most important factor for the success of Hainan Duty Free Shops lies in the aggressive pricing strategy. Overall, most luxury brands see Hainan as an important point of opportunity. Xing Weiwei believes that "in the future, with the entry of more duty-free operators, the retail consumption potential of Hainan Island will be further released." ”
Xing Weiwei said that the growth rate of online luxury sales in all major categories is faster than offline. In addition, she pointed out that luxury brands have certain advantages in operating e-commerce, and will become a very important layout area for luxury brands. Bain expects that in 2021, the growth rate of online sales of personal luxury goods in China will reach about 56%, and the growth rate offline will be 30%.
"In 2020, due to the obstruction of outbound travel due to the epidemic, the proportion of Chinese domestic markets in The global luxury consumption of Chinese consumers has reached 70%-75%, a record high." Xing Weiwei believes that thanks to the continuation of the trend of consumption return, in 2021, the proportion will rise to more than 90%.
Trends in the return of luxury consumption in China, Source Report
For the outlook of China's luxury market in 2022, Bruno Lannes, senior global partner of Bain & Company and co-author of the report, believes that the consumption fundamentals in the Chinese market are still very stable, and Chinese luxury consumers are showing more and more uniqueness and differences, but the epidemic may have a further negative impact on luxury sales.
Bruno expects that "the overall growth rate of personal luxury goods will remain low in 2022, double-digit growth, and the growth rate is expected to be slower in the first half of the year, and the force will be concentrated in the second half of the year." He believes that Chinese consumers' personal luxury spending will return to pre-pandemic levels between the end of 2022 and the first half of 2023.
Responsible editor: Yes Dong Dong Photo editor: Jiang Lidong
Proofreader: Liu Wei