The shock of the A-share market in 2022 began, and many small partners sighed that "the first adjustment in 2022 is earlier than ever". As of January 14, the CSI 300 Index and the ChiNext Index have fallen by 4.32% and 6.12% respectively this year. However, while the domestic A-share market is adjusting, the international crude oil price is counterattacking all the way. As of January 14, NYMEX crude oil has risen by 12.05% this year, and domestic oil and gas funds have also risen all the way, constantly "refueling" for income, becoming a "gas station" for investors' financial returns.
Continuing the 2021 market, oil and gas funds are full of bullishness
Although the style of the A-share market has changed as fast as "electric fans" in the past two years, under the influence of multiple factors such as supply and demand, the international oil and gas market has become a "minority" that continues to walk.
WIND data shows that of the 18 QDII products that rose more than 40% in 2021, 15 funds had the name "oil" (A\C is calculated separately). According to Galaxy Securities data, as of December 31, 2021, Sino Analytica Energy's yield in the past year ranked third among 56 funds in the same category of QDII equity funds (Class A).
As of January 14, the 8 QDII funds that have risen more than 10% this year have all "oil" in their names. It can be said that in the investment market in the past two years, the "oil" is on fire.
During the period from 2021.1.1 to 2022.1.14, NYMEX crude oil showed an upward trend
Source: WIND
Do a good job of diversified asset allocation, oil and gas funds into optional "side dishes"
Gary Brinson, the father of global asset allocation, said that the most important thing in making investment decisions is to focus on the market and determine the investment category. In the long run, about 90% of investment returns come from successful asset allocation.
For basic citizens who mainly invest in the domestic market, oil and gas funds are very good asset allocation products.
First: the trend of international crude oil is lowly correlated with A shares. The long-term rise and fall of the A-share market is mainly affected by the trend of the domestic economy, and the short-term is mainly affected by various domestic policies. International oil prices are mainly affected by supply and demand in the global market, and their correlation with the domestic economy and policies is low. Therefore, for investors who mainly invest in the domestic market, the allocation of oil and gas funds can effectively diversify risks.
Second: the value of crude oil market allocation in the past two years has been highlighted. In the past two years, the A-share market and the crude oil market have had a clear negative correlation effect. In 2020, the NYMEX crude oil index fell by 20.70%, and the CSI 300 index rose by 27.21% in the same period; while in 2021, the NYMEX crude oil index rose by 55.50%, and the CSI 300 index fell by 5.20% in the same period, showing the opposite trend.
Investing in crude oil in the past two years can effectively diversify the investment risks of A-shares
Source: WIND; as of January 14
As for the crude oil market, Sino Analytica believes that as of January 7, the us commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 4.553 million barrels in the week, seven consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, the current US commercial crude oil inventory is 413 million barrels; the US crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels / day from last week to 11.7 million barrels / day. OPEC+ held a meeting on January 4 and decided to maintain the current resolution to increase production by 400,000 barrels per month slightly. However, based on OPEC's actual output in November, the actual output of OPEC producers is still lower than the agreed amount. In addition, the recent turmoil in Kazakhstan, affecting about 1.6 million barrels per day of crude oil supply, while Libya has reduced production by 500,000 barrels per day due to pipeline overhauls and oil field closures, has exacerbated market concerns about crude oil supply.
Do a good job of asset allocation, so that the portfolio has "anti-fragility"
"Vulnerability" in investing refers to giving you higher returns in a stable market (such as high returns on equity assets in a bull market), but in the event of a "black swan" event, it will be like a glass falling from a high altitude, suffering significant losses.
In order to be able to withstand unpredictable risks and make the combination more "anti-fragile", that is, to survive the "black swan" event, two things must be done.
First, increase the proportion of lower-risk assets in the portfolio (such as interest rate bonds) to give the overall portfolio a higher margin of safety. However, this practice will reduce the overall return.
Second, do a good job of diversification of asset allocation, so that the investment varieties in the portfolio have a low degree of correlation. Such a configuration can achieve the effect of "the east is not bright, the west is bright", so that the portfolio has a stronger ability to resist risks.
Since the beginning of 2022, the strong performance of oil and gas funds has been in sharp contrast with the overall weak trend of the A-share market, further highlighting the importance of reasonable asset allocation in investment.
Risk Warning: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. Sino Analytica Oil & Gas Energy Fund is a QDII equity fund with a risk rating of [R3], which is suitable for investors whose risk identification, assessment and tolerance are rated as [C3] and above. When investors invest in funds managed by the Company, they should carefully read the "Fund Contract", "Custody Agreement", "Prospectus", "Risk Prospectus", Fund Product Information Summary and other documents and related announcements, truthfully fill in or update personal information and check their own risk tolerance, and select fund products that match their risk identification ability and risk tolerance. Investors need to be aware of the circumstances in which the fund's investment may result in a loss of principal. The fund manager undertakes to manage and use the assets of the fund in good faith, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable, nor does it guarantee a minimum return. The performance of other funds managed by the Manager is not indicative of performance against the Fund. The past performance of a fund and the level of its net worth are not indicative of its future performance. The fund manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's own responsibility" for fund investment, and after making investment decisions, the investment risks caused by changes in the operating status of the fund and the net value of the fund are borne by the investors themselves. Mainland funds have been in operation for a short period of time and do not reflect all stages of stock market development.