Russian media predicted: what unexpected things will happen on the international stage in 2022

The Russian Free Media Network published an article on January 18 analyzing what unexpected things may happen on the international stage in the new year, written by Andrei Ivanov. The full text is excerpted below:

The past year 2021 has brought many new ideas and pointed out priorities for international political developments. Humanity has been suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic for two years, and leaders continue to build a new global landscape.

At the same time, everyone is witnessing the rapid changes in the reality around them, and the places that change are not always predictable and self-explanatory.

However, starting from the past trend, it is more or less possible to predict the future. The Free Media Network invited Andrei Volokin, principal researcher at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to share his insights on how geopolitics will evolve in 2022.

Geopolitical powers have different development concepts

2021 is the year a geopolitical plan is being developed. The United States has long had this plan, which can be called "Pax Americana", that is, to build a world that identifies with "American values" and recognizes the advantages of the United States in formulating global values. From this logic, it follows that other nations must submit to Washington's will.

In 2013, China's "New Silk Road" initiative was launched. Today, Beijing proposes to "build a community with a shared future for mankind" and proposes to the people of the world that all-round cooperation and win-win development should be achieved.

In 2021, Europe is hatching its own global solution, which it calls the "Global Gateway" program. EU leaders have said they plan to develop infrastructure in poor developing countries and do everything in their power to advance humanitarian exchanges. The EU intends to allocate 300 billion euros to this end.

However, Russia's Eurasian integration project has not progressed. Not only is the Eurasian Economic Union talking about broad economic integration, but the SCO has also been talking about expanding its influence for years.

Professor Volodin said: "Russia's Eurasian integration project is really spinning in place. But this proves that the Eurasian Economic Union is seeking its own development model in today's world. The Eurasian integration project stalled because no strategy had been developed. Even the founders of the Eurasian Economic Union are currently unable to set immediate and subsequent goals. ”

The Washington-Moscow-Beijing triangle is not currently evenly matched, with China and the United States economically stronger than Russia. Making the structure more even is Moscow's task. Clearly, in 2022 Russia will be committed to advancing its own political agenda.

The United States and China will use interaction to contain confrontation

During the years of Donald Trump's presidency, U.S.-China relations have been deteriorating. Washington waged a trade war against China, while imposing restrictions on technology exports and drastically reducing people-to-people exchanges.

On the one hand, the confrontational rhetoric between the two sides has only increased. On the other hand, the United States has suspended the trade war and other specific restrictions launched by Trump. In the first 10 months of last year, Sino-US trade reached a record 3.95 trillion yuan.

It seems that Beijing and Washington still decided to negotiate. The compromises made by the two countries will determine many global issues.

Volodine said: "When it comes to the Sino-US conflict, I will not say that the relationship between the two countries has become better or worse. China did become a powerful power, which made then-US President Donald Trump have to pay attention. Under the leadership of incumbent President Joe Biden, the United States will likewise adapt to China's position. With regard to the United States, the Democratic Party is fragmented and virtually powerless. All of the Democrats' rhetoric about international politics is to balance the weakness of the Biden administration and changes in the country's governance system. Therefore, the United States will not be too active internationally, but it will take certain measures. ”

Don't forget that Trump tried to lead American companies out of China, but these companies could not let go of the Chinese market. Therefore, China and the United States will continue to interact closely with each other. The economic and geopolitical interweaving of The United States and China will contain confrontation.

Regional conflict is less likely

Brussels, Washington and London have been threatening new sanctions against Russia, but Moscow has not been moved. Russian border exercises are constant – both Russian and NATO forces.

But at the end of 2021, the situation became white-hot. The years-long unresolved ukraine has sparked a dangerous discussion about whether Russian forces will aggressively "invade" neighboring countries.

Another question arises – whether the entire European security system should be changed. The Kremlin said it could not tolerate NATO's active moves on the continent and offered suggestions on how to change the situation. It is not surprising that Europe and the United States do not endorse these recommendations.

This year, everyone is looking forward to big news from a possible meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. But the initial talks between the two sides have yet to produce any results.

"When it comes to russia's conflict with the West and its interrelationship around Ukraine, the role of the post-Soviet region for Moscow should not be exaggerated," Volodín said. Russia's policy is increasingly looking eastward, shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region. ”

Regarding the possible regional conflict in 2022, Volodín said that many military analysts say that conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, including Libya, may erupt again, and the situation in Afghanistan and Ukraine will remain complicated... But it is important to be clear that the United States and the West are unlikely to be determined to fight Russia and China directly. While the West may be trying to accomplish its current goals through regional conflicts, the possibility of irrational impulsiveness in regional conflicts in general no longer exists.

Source: Reference News Network