As one of the main fertilizers for spring tillage, the price of urea has always been the focus of farmers' attention. In previous years, the price of urea was basically 1800-2000 yuan / ton, while in the past two years, the price of urea rose higher, reaching 3600-3800 yuan / ton at the highest time.
In 2021, the urea market has changed greatly, and the first half of the year is basically up, and the wholesale price of the market has reached 3500-3600 yuan / ton at the highest time, and the retail price has reached 3600-3800 yuan / ton. In the second half of the year after a variety of regulation, urea prices have declined, by the end of the year, the market wholesale price fell to 2400-2600 yuan / ton, although there is a certain decline, but compared with the price increase before, the price is still higher.
After entering 2022, the urea market is relatively stable, although there are fluctuations, but the up and down fluctuations are basically 30-50 yuan / ton. From the early and middle of January as a whole, urea prices still showed an upward trend.
There are many reasons for the rise in the price of urea. From the perspective of production costs, the rising cost of raw materials for the production of urea due to the tight energy supply is the main reason for the sharp increase in the price of urea. In addition, the rise in electricity prices, although compared with the rise in raw material prices, is not so large, but it is also one of the reasons for the increase in the price of urea.
From an international perspective, the impact of the flood of global liquidity and the sharp rise in international fertilizer prices has also led to an increase in domestic fertilizer prices.
From the demand side, on the one hand, the increase in the area of domestic grain cultivation has increased the use of urea, and at the same time, the inventory of some enterprises is insufficient, and the relationship between supply and demand in the market is tense. On the other hand, due to the impact of some foreign bidding projects and the export of some enterprises, the market demand has also increased, which has further led to the tension between supply and demand.
Under the combined effect of the above factors, during 2021, the price of urea will rise sharply, and individual enterprises will increase by 200 yuan / ton in one day. The rise in the price of urea is directly reflected in the planting costs of farmers, and the cost of planting increases, and farmers will not be happy. After entering the second half of the year, after a series of supply and price stabilization work, the price of urea began to fall.
First of all, the supply of coal, electricity and gas was guaranteed, and the daily output of urea was increased. Secondly, some fertilizer enterprises were interviewed, and it was strictly forbidden to increase prices significantly. Then, the requirements for exports have been increased, giving priority to ensuring the supply of domestic demand. In terms of reserves, the national spring tillage fertilizer reserves are being stored in an orderly manner according to the requirements, and will be put on the market in March and May this year according to the start time of spring ploughing in various places.
Under a variety of measures, the price of urea has dropped from the wholesale price of 3400-3500 yuan / ton to the current wholesale price of 2400-2600 yuan / ton. Seeing this, some friends will ask, with the continuous increase in daily urea production and the increase in market inventory, will urea prices continue to fall when the spring tillage fertilizer period is in 2022? Will it drop to about 2,000 yuan / ton?
On this issue, let's first look at the statement of the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission on January 18: "The supply of spring tillage fertilizers this year is guaranteed, but considering the difficulty of further sharp decline in production costs, it is expected that the price of spring tillage fertilizers may still run at a high level." ”
What do you mean? In fact, it is easy to understand that the supply of fertilizer during spring ploughing is sufficient, and there will be no lack of fertilizer, including urea. However, because the price of production costs has always been relatively expensive, the price of fertilizers will not fall sharply, and it is expected to continue to operate at a high level. In the case of urea, the price of urea in March and May will not fall significantly, and may maintain the current price running smoothly, or there is still a certain amount of room for growth.
Check the latest urea price quotes in the market, most areas are mainly stable, small and medium-sized particles in different regions are quoted as reference (the same below), Shandong region 2550-2600 yuan / ton, Anhui region 2630-2650 yuan / ton, Henan region 2520-2550 yuan / ton, Hebei region 2600-2630 yuan / ton, Jiangsu region 2680-2700 yuan / ton, Hubei region about 2650 yuan / ton; Liaoning region 2680 yuan / ton about, 2350-2580 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia and 2350-2400 yuan / ton in Xinjiang.
Urea price forecast. There are still ten days left before the Spring Festival, and the time left for dealers to prepare goods has been insufficient, and some dealers have increased the intensity of stockpiling. In addition, due to the control of roads in some areas, the market supply is relatively tight, which will lead to an increase in urea prices. However, international demand has been suspended.
Therefore, to sum up, before the Spring Festival, the price of urea on the market will basically not change too much, and smooth operation is the mainstream. After the Spring Festival, with the increase of spring tillage fertilizer, the urea on the market may also rise by a certain extent.
However, in order to ensure the enthusiasm of farmers to cultivate land, whether it is urea or other fertilizer prices, it is unlikely that there will be a sharp rise in 2021. Probably predict that the price of urea may hover around 2600-2700 yuan / ton, and it is normal for local areas to fluctuate up and down.
The above prediction is only for your reference, the specific market also depends on the market trend, what do you think about the price of urea?