Recently, the repeated outbreak of local epidemics in China and the news that the US Department of Health and Human Services have officially included Helicobacter pylori in the carcinogenic list have made pharmaceutical and biological stocks attract market attention again. As a high-tech enterprise engaged in the research and development and production of biological diagnostic reagents and vaccines, Wantai Biotech's product role and use have been concerned by investors.
In the e-interaction, investors questioned the sales volume and performance contribution of Wantai Bio's Helicobacter pylori test agent and COVID-19 test agent products. Wantai Bio said that it has related products and widely used clinical and physical examination systems, but has not clearly replied to the sales and prospects of Helicobacter antibody detection test kits. For the sale of new crown detection reagents (antigens) in the United States, it is a direct response and is not sold in the United States.
It is worth mentioning that for the contribution of the performance of the new crown test, in 2020, Wantai Bio has issued announcements on many occasions that the company's new crown detection reagents currently only have the new coronavirus detection kit (double antigen sandwich method) based on the luminescent platform to obtain the domestic medical device registration certificate, and the sales volume accounts for a small proportion of the company's overall revenue, which does not have a significant impact on the company's financial situation. At the same time, many provinces and cities have adopted a centralized procurement model for new crown detection reagents, which has greatly reduced profit margins and imposed some restrictions on the growth of sales of new crown testing products.
Although Helicobacter pylori test agent and new crown test agent products cannot have a significant impact on the financial situation of Wantai Biologics, the second-order HPV vaccines of Wantai Biologics have ushered in good news one after another. After the listing of Wantai Biological Domestic Bivalent HPV, with the advantages of cost performance and small age group, it quickly seized the grass-roots market, and the company's production capacity has reached 30 million pieces / year, and the expansion of production capacity and smooth climbing have led to the rapid release of the company's batch issuance, and the proportion of batches in the industry has increased rapidly
According to the statistics of the HPV vaccine batch issuance market of Guojin Securities (600109), in 2021, wantai Biotech's bivalent HPV vaccine batch issuance batch accounted for the first batch, reaching 65%, while the similar GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent HPV vaccine batch batch accounted for only 5%.
Sales of the divalent HPV vaccine expanded rapidly, contributing to revenue growth. According to the data, from 2018 to 2020 and at the end of the third quarter of 2021, the operating income of Wantai Biotech increased by 3.49%, 20.46%, 98.88% and 124.86% respectively; in 2020, the company's sales revenue of bivalent HPV vaccine was 693 million yuan, accounting for 29.44% of the total revenue.
First, executives have reduced their holdings, Davis "double-click" to become "double kill"?Under the contribution of bivalent HPV performance, wanqin biological company's profit and price-earnings ratio increased at the same time, resulting in a multiplier effect of Davis double-click. In the third quarter of 2021, the operating profit of Wantai Bio was 1.366 billion yuan, an increase of 143.19% year-on-year; as of January 18, the total market value of Wantai Bio reached 137.179 billion yuan, and the increase (before the restoration) since its listing reached 3,518.43%.
However, just when the stock price and performance increased, the executives of Wantai Bio opened a reduction mode. The latest reduction plan is that the company's financial director Zhao Yiyong intends to reduce the number of shares to 164,500 shares, accounting for 25% of his holdings, and the cash amount will reach 37.1737 million yuan according to the closing price on January 18.
For the frequent reduction of company executives, investors have asked questions on the e-interactive platform. Wantai Bio replied that the management is full of confidence in the company's future, and the reduction of holdings is its own capital needs.
Obviously, Wantai Bio's reply cannot dispel investors' doubts. The market gradually realized that "the future performance of Wantai Bio has been overdrawn by the stock price". At the same time, the competition of domestic HPV vaccines has begun to intensify, and the bivalent HPV vaccine Watson Biological (300142) has begun to be declared for listing, and the monopoly of the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Wantai will change. In addition, in the research and development of quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccines, in addition to facing the existing product competition of foreign vaccine companies Merck and GlaxoSmithKline, Wantai also faces the research and development competition of Bowei, Kangle Guard and An Yusheng.
It is worth mentioning that when the company's performance explosive growth enters the end, the company's products will enter a mature period or a recession period. At this time, the executives reduced their holdings, both to get money for the increase in the valuation of the enterprise and the money for the growth of the company's performance.
At the same time, at the end of 2021, Wantai Bio issued an announcement on the change of accounting estimates, from January 1, 2022, the company's R & D expenditure is no longer fully included in profit and loss, and the R&D expenditure that meets the requirements will be included in the asset-related accounts according to the new standard. This means that the management is not confident in future performance, and wantai Bio's past cautious accounting posture is no longer there.
All indications are that the multiplier effect of the Vantez Davis double-click is starting to gradually weaken. Due to the excessive increase in the stock price in the early stage, the future performance has been overdrawn, and in the absence of new performance growth points, it is often easy to change from Davis double-click to Davis double-kill.
Second, the operating income relies on credit sales, and there are doubts about the fixed increase projectIn addition to the reduction of senior executives, the operating income of Wantai Biotech increased simultaneously with bills receivable and accounts receivable, which shows that the growth of Wantai Bio's operating income depends on credit sales.
In the third quarter of 2021, the total assets of Wantai Bio increased by 56.57% compared with the beginning of the year, and increased by 72.23% compared with the same period. In response, the company responded that it was mainly due to the increase in accounts receivable, raw materials and finished product inventories, and increased investment in engineering projects caused by the increase in revenue scale in the current period.
According to the data, at the end of 2018-2020 and the end of the third quarter of 2021, the bills receivable and accounts receivable of Wantai Bio were 193 million, 261 million, 699 million and 1.902 billion, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.30%, 35.56%, 167.27% and 199.72%, accounting for 10.63%, 12.07%, 19.94% and 34.67% of the total assets.
Correspondingly, Wantai Biologics' growing accounts receivable turnover days and credit impairment losses, from the end of 2019 to 2020 and the third quarter of 2021, Wantai Biologics' accounts receivable turnover days were 71.11 days, 69.07 days, 73.40 days and 97.63 days, respectively, and credit impairment losses were 4.4994 million yuan, 24.4923 million yuan and 64.4234 million yuan, respectively.
1. The products of the fixed increase project are still in clinical trials, and the feasibility and necessity are in doubtIn October last year, Wantai Bio issued an announcement that it would raise no more than 3.5 billion yuan for the construction of projects such as nine-valent HPV vaccine and nasal spray vaccine. The number of shares to be subscribed by the Company's largest share, Yangshengtang Co., Ltd., shall not exceed 10% of the number of shares to be issued in this non-public offering.
In this fundraising project, due to the nine-valent HPV vaccine, nasal spray vaccine, 20-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (hereinafter referred to as PCV20) is still in clinical trials, of which PCV20 only received the "Clinical Trial Approval Notice" approved by the State Drug Administration on September 2, 2021.
Therefore, there are great risks in the commercialization requirements of related products and the future market environment, and the future economic benefits of the project are questioned by investors.
Taking wantai bio-nine-valent HPV vaccine as an example, the vaccine is in clinical phase 3, and there are many manufacturers such as Bowei, An Yusheng, and Kangle Guard in clinical phase III. At the same time, foreign manufacturers Merck already has nine-valent HPV products for sale. According to the company's statement, according to the design of the 9-valent Phase 3 clinical plan, the entire clinical trial cycle is about 66-78 months. In the case of high uncertainty in the future market environment, the company changed its original plan and raised funds to expand the nine-valent HPV production capacity, is there a reasonable scientific basis behind this?
In addition, the necessity of the company's nasal spray vaccine industry base project has been questioned. According to the project feasibility report, the nasal spray vaccine is still in the preparation of the third phase of overseas clinical trials, and for the necessity of the construction of the nasal spray vaccine project, Wantai Biology clearly proposed that it is to accelerate the industrialization progress of the new crown vaccine products.
In this regard, some investors said on the e-interactive platform that the sale of nasal spray vaccines next year will not cover the cost? By the time the nasal spray vaccine is conditionally marketed, is COVID-19 nearing its end?