Taiwan scholar Li Mingyi: Lai Qingde's visit to Honduras has both benefits and risks

Professor Li Mingyi, Institute of Educational Administration, Pingtung University, Taiwan. (Photo by Gao Yishen)

On 25 January, Lai Ching-te, deputy leader of the Taiwan authorities, will lead a delegation to Honduras to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new president, Xiomara Castro, and US Vice President He Jinli will also attend. Li Mingyi, a professor at the Institute of Educational Administration of Pingtung University in Taiwan, said in an interview with the China Commentary Agency that the leading talents of China and the United States have just held a video summit and have the idea of setting up a security guardrail for each other, and whether He Jinli will interact with Lai Qingde depends on which situation the United States wants to push the Taiwan region into.

Li Mingyi further analyzed that Lai Qingde's current visit to Honduras has political interests and risks, but Lai Qingde himself can still control the limited, how the United States plays the "Taiwan card" and whether it can preserve the so-called relations between Taiwan and Hong, are all worth observing.

Li Mingyi pointed out that Taiwan is geopolitically sandwiched between the two powers of China and the United States, and Taiwan has always played the role of a "risk averse" during the Ma Ying-jeou period, but after the DPP authorities came to power in 2016, although they declared that the Taiwan region has become a "quasi-partnership" of the United States, the actual Taiwan-US relationship is not equal, but more like a relationship of "subordination to the United States", so the entry of Taiwan administrative officials into the United States, or how the United States arranges Lai Qingde, will become an observation indicator between China and the United States.

Li Mingyi said that Lai Qingde's visit to Honduras will transit through the United States, and the US side's arrangement specifications will become the observation pointer. In February 2020, Lai Qingde visited the United States as "the elected deputy leader of the Taiwan region" and went to New York and Washington to attend the annual "National Prayer Breakfast Meeting". Today, the transit arrangements of the United States are highly indicative.

With regard to Taiwan-Hong Kong relations, Li Mingyi said: At present, Taiwan has only 15 so-called "diplomatic relations," and the struggle between Sino-US relations and the Taiwan Strait issue in Honduras has emerged. The new president Castro is relatively inclined, and whether Lai Qingde's relationship with The hong relationship has changed when he visits the background is a hypothetical question, but it is really difficult to say now.

Li Mingyi believes that US Vice President He Jinli will be the representative of Xi Castro's inauguration ceremony, and if Lai Qingde can take the opportunity to share the frame with He Jinli, take photos, or have a simple ceremonial interaction, this will continue to have an impact on Lai Qingde's political visibility in Taiwan. In addition, under the current situation of Sino-US confrontation, it is all the more necessary to observe where the United States wants to push Taiwan.

Li Mingyi believes that many people may think that Lai Qingde's visit to the United States on behalf of Tsai Ing-wen has the taste of "starting in 2024", but the reality is that it is still very early in 2024, and the treatment of Lai Qingde in the United States, as well as whether Honduras can achieve the political tasks entrusted by Tsai Ing-wen, and whether the subsequent relationship with Honduras can be maintained, are all good observation points. Now there are about two theories, one is that Lai Qingde is Tsai Ing-wen's "deputy", and it seems "natural" to take over the baton in 2024, but whether Lai Qingde's road to the top position is smooth all the way, the challenges of the factions within the party are changing rapidly; second, Lai Qingde attended the inauguration ceremony of the new president of a "friendly country" as a deputy, which is in line with the general "diplomatic" etiquette, and everyone does not need to bring too many factional interests to speculate.