Decision: The seven weapons of scientific decision-making

First, decision-making is not a decision, nor is it a determination.

Decision-making is to make the right choice in the face of several options that are not easy to judge. Taking ideas in the case of equal advantages and disadvantages is a tangled mental process.

Some people can shop around for dozens of dollars, but they are extremely sloppy in the face of major choices in life. This is most likely to go with the flow, not only do not pay attention to decision-making science, but also lack of decision-making awareness.

Second, the four steps of scientific decision-making

1. See what options you have

Wrong way: Choose from these options if you have any options

The right thing to do: Think about whether you can add a few options to yourself

2. Evaluate the merits of each option

Wrong practices: Confirm bias, preconceived notions about liking and sticking to an option

Correct practices; Seek advice from others and get an objective assessment

3. Choose one of these options

Wrong approach: Being swayed by your own short-term feelings

The right thing to do: Think long-term

4. Be prepared in case of a wrong decision

Wrong practice: Overconfidence

The right thing to do: give the future an insurance policy

In Chinese parlance, it is: a variety of tricks, seeking truth from facts, considering things in the long run, and expecting defeat before winning.

Third, there must be multiple options for real decision-making

If it's only yes or no, 52% of decisions are wrong in the long run, adding one or two options, and the rate of choosing the wrong one or two drops to 32%. Even just by being aware that you have other options, your decision-making level can change dramatically — because you're not thinking like you're on the edge of the box.

Fourth, how to add options to decision-making

The simplest approach is to "borrow". The idea is to look for bright spots. In a situation where most fail, see how those successes work. After having a variety of options, it is necessary to put multiple options on the table in front of you, put all the plans out, and make a unified choice just like the ancient strategists gave the lord three attentions at once: the upper policy, the middle policy, and the lower policy.

Fifth, three ways not to get tangled up in major policy decisions

1. Establishment of opposition: There is no opposition in the decision-making process, just as the judge of the trial has no defense lawyer. When making personal decisions, you should also find a few friends to raise objections, help you use reason to overcome emotions and "ask for a wake-up call"

2. Watch from a distance: Observe yourself from the perspective of a bystander. The 10/10/10 rule considers the problem on three time scales: 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.

3. Values: It is the "priority" you set, what is more important and what is most important.

Sixth, use the correct way others predict yourself

When we predict the future, the first thing that comes to mind is that we are not special than others, and the basic ratio is to do a good reference. The base ratio is the average level of people who used to do the same thing. We must respect general knowledge and be able to analyze specific problems on a case-by-case basis.

Seventh, high-level scientific decision-making is "unscientific" decision-making

For doers, there is no such thing as "making up for and then moving" decisions. He is a dynamic process, moving first, testing the water first, seeing the situation and then adjusting, remembering the story of the pony crossing the river.

The so-called "science" of doers is not whether to do it or not, but to grasp the strength of the beginning, small-scale testing. There are three principles for innovating with test water methods: 1. Try new things as much as possible; 2 Try to be controllable to ensure that there are no catastrophic consequences; 3 Get feedback, learn from the results, and adjust the practice at any time.