Author: Battle Flash
As everyone knows, the Taiwan issue is one of the most core issues in China and has a bearing on China's territorial sovereign integrity. Since the DPP came to power, cross-strait relations have been deteriorating continuously, and in order to cope with the "Taiwan independence" forces' acts of splitting the motherland, the mainland is constantly stepping up layer by layer and cracking down on "Taiwan independence" elements in an all-round way. With the white-hot and long-lasting game in the Taiwan Strait, the United States and Taiwan will inevitably produce some panic, and in the next few years, especially in 2022, they are likely to adopt more radical measures to promote the process of "Taiwan independence". The cross-strait situation has continued to deteriorate, and it has been necessary to "showdown" in advance.
In the first month of 2022, Taiwan's "seeking independence" remarks and actions have emerged in an endless stream. Tsai Ing-wen's New Year's Day talks directly attacked the mainland, and inside and outside her words she was looking for excuses for "seeking independence." Recently, the DPP authorities have again begun to hype up "cross-strait non-subordination." These remarks are nakedly selling the "two-state theory," which makes people very disdainful. This also confirms the possibility of a complete showdown in the Taiwan Strait in 2022. Because with the continuous rise of the mainland's comprehensive national strength, surpassing the United States is just around the corner. The longer the time drags on, the stronger the mainland's strength will be, and the more impossible it will be for Taiwan to "seek independence according to the United States, and the more impossible it will be for the United States to "use Taiwan to contain China." Therefore, accelerating the "pursuit of independence" is likely to become the choice of the United States and Taiwan.
Mainland officials have also stated that the situation in the Taiwan Strait will become more severe in 2022. The possibility of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait will also be greatly increased. Therefore, 2022 is likely to become a "watershed" in cross-strait relations. The path to resolving the Taiwan issue will also become clearer and clearer. There is a reason for this.
First, the United States will hold midterm elections in November 2022. That's a crucial thing for Biden, a crucial battle over whether he's re-elected. In its year in office, the United States has not been better than it was during the Trump era, the new crown epidemic is once again out of control, and the number of infections in the United States and Japan has once again soared to record levels. Domestic inflation has reached its highest point in nearly 40 years; the supply chain crisis has intensified, and the government has no solution but to stamp dollars. Coupled with the collapse of troops withdrawn from Afghanistan, 13 U.S. personnel were killed in an explosion at Kabul airfield. Diplomatic negotiations with Russia over Ukraine have not yielded any results and so on.
These things have made the American people extremely disappointed in the Democratic Party's administration, and it is understood that for several months, the support rate of the Democratic government has been hovering around 40%, with an average support rate of 42%. A poll released last week by Quinnipiac University showed support had fallen to 33 percent. Under such a background, in the midterm elections in the United States, Biden will inevitably try to divert domestic contradictions and attention, and it is almost inevitable to play the "Taiwan card" madly. Use external toughness to unite the internal forces of the Democratic Party and curry favor with the Republican Party. Moreover, playing the "China card" has almost become an old routine in the US midterm elections. Therefore, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will become even more dangerous, and once the situation in the Taiwan Strait deteriorates between the United States and Taiwan, the mainland will never make any concessions, and it is estimated that there will only be one way to go.
Second, military struggles between the two sides of the strait have become more frequent and fierce. The continental army planes clocked in almost every day in the airspace of southwest Taiwan, and related targeted military exercises were constantly carried out. A few days ago, it was also exposed that the PLA used slogans in Mandarin and dialect to make the Taiwan army surrender, which shows that the mainland's military preparations are becoming more and more sufficient, and the military pressure on Taiwan is becoming more and more tough. Against this background, the Taiwan side has no idea of restraint and has constantly stepped up its military ties with the United States. Taiwan's legislature also plans to pass a "special budget for the procurement of the sea and air combat capability improvement plan" totaling more than NT$200 billion, which will mass-produce the "Hsiung-san" anti-ship missile in 2023.
Not only that, the United States and Japan are also stepping up their military forces around the Taiwan Strait, and the two sides have not only reached an agreement to jointly deal with the situation in the Taiwan Strait, but also build a forward base on the southwest island of Japan. All these acts have increased the possibility of a gun-wringing in the Taiwan Strait. No matter which direction a conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the situation may deteriorate in an instant, and the mainland will immediately take action against Taiwan.
Finally, Taiwan will hold "nine-in-one" elections on November 26, 2022. This election is an election held simultaneously at the city, county, township, and village levels in the Taiwan region. It can also be seen as a battlefield for Taiwan's various parties to seize territory, and whoever grabs more seats may win the 2024 "general election". Therefore, this election is a "mid-term test" for the survival of Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP, and they will inevitably increase their efforts to "seek independence" to gain more seats and support. This is the DPP's consistent magic weapon for victory, and they have come to power by playing the "Taiwan independence" card. The process of "promoting reunification" on the mainland is constantly accelerating, while Taiwan independence is accelerating its "pursuit of independence."
Therefore, 2022 is likely to be an extremely critical year for cross-strait relations. If Taiwan and the United States continue to collude and provoke and accelerate the process of "seeking independence," it will inevitably prompt the mainland to speed up the progress of reunification. From this point of view, there is no way out for the DPP authorities to pursue "Taiwan independence," and only through "peaceful negotiations" with the mainland and promoting the reunification of the motherland is the best way out. If not, even if there is one "Taiwan independence" element, they will all be tried, and no one will be able to escape, and they will still be nailed to the column of shame in history.